Ascending Trendline and Structural Support Converge to Reignite Bullish Impulse

Forex

Economic

Summary:

A successful defense of this area, which also aligns perfectly with the primary ascending trendline, would provide strong technical confirmation for a sustained bullish continuation.

BUY AUDCHF

EXP

EXPIRED

0.56100

Entry Price

0.56720

0.55750

0.56210 -0.00003 -0.01%

Pips

EXPIRED

0.55750

0.56271

Exit Price

0.56100

Entry Price

0.56720

the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) implemented a rate hike during its latest session while simultaneously signaling a tactical pause that remains strictly contingent upon forthcoming economic data. Governor Michele Bullock underscored this strategic positioning, noting that a primary objective behind the recent adjustment was to secure sufficient policy flexibility to monitor evolving economic conditions effectively before committing to further restrictive measures.

The RBA board reached an 8-1 consensus to deliver its third consecutive 25-basis-point increase, effectively elevating the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 4.35%. This policy move aligned closely with cash rate futures, which had discounted an 80% probability of such an outcome. The central bank highlighted that inflation is likely to persist above its target threshold for a prolonged duration, with risks remaining decisively skewed to the upside, particularly regarding the potential for heightened long-term inflationary expectations.

Specifically, the RBA has recalibrated its medium-term projections, now suggesting that policy-relevant underlying inflation will remain above the bank’s preferred 2-3% corridor until mid-2027. This represents a notable extension from its previous forecast, which anticipated a return to target by late 2026. This adjustment is largely attributed to the secondary effects of rising fuel costs, which are increasingly being passed through to consumer price indices and broader household expenditures.

While market participants currently anticipate an additional 35-basis-point increase to 4.70% by the conclusion of 2026, there appears to be limited justification for a significant hawkish shift in the futures curve at this stage. This view is supported by two primary structural factors: first, the RBA has downgraded Australia’s growth prospects, forecasting that real GDP expansion will remain below potential throughout the current projection horizon. Second, the cash rate is already situated at the upper echelon of model-based estimates for the nominal neutral rate, suggesting that further aggressive hikes could prove counterproductive to economic stability.

Shifting to the broader macroeconomic landscape, recent Swiss indicators present a somewhat fragmented picture of the domestic economy. April’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded a 0.3% monthly increase, surpassing the previous month’s 0.2% but falling marginally short of the 0.4% consensus. On an annualized basis, inflation reached 0.6%, representing the highest print since December 2024. Conversely, manufacturing activity delivered a significant upside surprise as the SVME Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) surged to 54.5 in April, signaling robust expansion in the sector for the second consecutive month.

The relatively benign core inflation environment provides the Swiss National Bank (SNB) with ample leeway to look through current energy price shocks and maintain a stable policy stance for the foreseeable future. Consequently, market valuations currently pricing in a 25-basis-point hike to 0.25% by year-end appear overextended. The central bank is likely to prioritize navigating the current "fragile" economic environment rather than pursuing aggressive tightening, especially as domestic price pressures remain largely contained. Ascending Trendline and Structural Support Converge to Reignite Bullish Impulse_1

Ascending Trendline and Structural Support Converge to Reignite Bullish Impulse_1

Technical Analisys

From a technical perspective, AUD/CHF remains entrenched in a primary bullish trajectory, having recently undergone a healthy retracement to its dynamic moving average horizons. The 100-period moving average at 0.5610 and the 200-period moving average at 0.5567 are currently providing a solid structural floor. This corrective phase found significant buying interest upon reaching the local support level of 0.5601—a zone that previously functioned as a formidable resistance. A successful defense of this area, which also aligns perfectly with the primary ascending trendline, would provide strong technical confirmation for a sustained bullish continuation.

Momentum oscillators further support the thesis of a potential upside pivot from these levels. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) recently rebounded from a low of 36, near oversold territory, and is currently hovering around the neutral 50 level, suggesting substantial room for further appreciation before reaching overbought extremes. Simultaneously, the MACD is on the verge of a bullish histogram transition. Should this momentum gain depth, it would likely solidify the current upward impulse. With signal lines positioned just beneath the neutral threshold, a decisive bullish crossover would provide the final confirmation needed to consolidate the broader move to the upside.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 0.5610

Target price: 0.5672

Stop loss: 0.5575

Validity: May 15, 2026 15:00:00

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Ascending Trendline and Structural Support Converge to Reignite Bullish Impulse

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