The Federal Reserve's dovish outlook has softened, leading to a decline in investor risk appetite and putting downward pressure on the euro. The latest harmonized Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for the Eurozone indicates that overall inflation increased month-on-month from 0.1% in September to 0.2% in October, while the annual growth rate slowed slightly from 2.2% to 2.1%, edging closer to the European Central Bank's (ECB) 2% target. Core inflation rose to 0.3% month-on-month but remained stable at 2.4% year-on-year. These figures send an intriguing signal: after energy and certain commodity prices stabilized, overall Eurozone inflationary pressures continue to ease, while services and core components maintain moderate stickiness. This combination neither justifies new monetary tightening nor compels the ECB to rapidly shift towards aggressive easing, aligning more with a neutral, dovish stance of maintaining restrictive rates over the medium term while remaining prepared to respond to economic downturns. For the euro, this implies limited carry trade advantages and a lack of clear support from interest rate expectations. Looking ahead, the euro will be influenced by the HCOB preliminary purchasing managers' index (PMI) data for November, which is scheduled for release on Friday.

Recent movements in the EURUSD exchange rate are influenced less by fundamental factors such as interest rates and inflation, and more by the cumulative effects of macroeconomic developments and risk sentiment. On one hand, market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in December have diminished, with CME FedWatch indicating the probability of a 25-basis-point reduction to 3.50%-3.75% dropping from 50.1% to 32.8%. A month ago, the market overwhelmingly anticipated a rate cut, with probabilities as high as 96%. On the other hand, recent global equity market sell-offs have reinforced risk aversion. In an environment of waning risk appetite, the U.S. dollar, traditionally perceived as a safe-haven currency, has attracted capital inflows. Investors have reduced holdings in equities and certain high-risk assets, reallocating funds into cash and highly liquid instruments. This "risk-averse dollar buying" often temporarily offsets the negative impact of weakening rate expectations, enabling the U.S. Dollar Index to remain robust at high levels and causing the euro to retreat below the 1.16 level amid consolidation. Structural changes within the U.S. macroeconomic fundamentals indicate that weak employment data is somewhat constraining the outlook for consumer spending, real estate, and the service sector. Conversely, August factory orders posted a month-on-month increase of 1.4%, aligning with market expectations and partially offsetting the previous 1.3% decline. Manufacturing demand has not experienced a sharp slowdown but is instead exhibiting a pattern of "gradual deceleration amid volatility." This structural composition causes the Federal Reserve to adopt a data-dependent approach to policy, refraining from issuing a clear easing timeline. Some officials emphasize the need for additional data to determine the next policy direction, which to some extent suppresses market expectations for rapid rate cuts and limits downside potential for the U.S. dollar.

In the 1D timeframe, following a MACD golden cross, the MACD line and signal line have retracted towards the zero-axis, indicating potential trend reversal signals. The Bollinger Bands are opening downward, with SMAs diverging downward, and the price is oscillating along the EMA12. A significant bearish candlestick was observed yesterday, with RSI at 39, reflecting increasing market pessimism. Current price action remains within the descending channel; unless the upper boundary is broken, a retest of the lower Bollinger Band around 1.148 is likely. In the 1W timeframe, Bollinger Bands are converging narrowly, EMA 12 is turning downward, and following the MACD death cross, the MACD line and signal line are retuning toward the zero-axis with some distance remaining, suggesting the downtrend may not be complete. RSI at 49 shows a gradual decline in highs, indicating strong market caution. Short-term support levels are positioned near the lower/middle Bollinger Band and EMA50. It is recommended to go short at the highs in the short term.

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 1.152

Target Price: 1.12

Stop Loss: 1.175

Support: 1.145, 1.14, 1.12

Resistance: 1.182, 1.192, 1.2

The Central Bank of Russia is no longer content with token additions to its gold reserves. It has launched a full-scale offensive, sweeping up every good-delivery bar the domestic market can furnish. In a world where sanction-bound reserves are immobilised, dollar assets are frozen, and geopolitics is redrawing the global map, the Kremlin has concluded that the only balance-sheet item still capable of crossing borders unhindered is bullion.

Behind the headlines lies far more than Moscow's well-worn mantra of "buy gold, dump dollars". The liquidity dynamics of the Russian gold market have quietly shifted, enabling the central bank to scale its operations to levels that would have been operationally impossible only a few years ago. This is not a publicity stunt. It is a structural inflection point that is injecting fresh momentum into a market already primed by fear, fiscal deficits and the accelerating dedollarisation narrative.

For years, thin on-shore liquidity stymied sustained accumulation. Despite ranking as the world's second-largest producer, Russian miners could sell only at the pace the domestic clearing system could absorb. Sanctions severed the international outlet, yet—perversely—they have also forced the ecosystem to mature.

The turnover rate has already reached a level at which the central bank can execute matched CNY-and-gold transactions to rotate assets for the National Wealth Fund with the same precision a liability-driven-investment (LDI) portfolio manager uses to fine-tune duration and collateral mix. The crux is that the North-West financial architecture—currently weighted around 60% RMB and 40% monetary gold—now functions as a fiscal shock absorber for the federal budget deficit in Moscow. Every uptick in the global gold price therefore not only swells the reserve base but also expands the rouble liquidity envelope that can be tapped without touching the sovereign's frozen Western assets. A higher mark-to-market valuation translates directly into a wider political option set. In short, Russia is not merely accumulating bullion—it has re-engineered its entire reserve framework around gold as the core asset.

While headlines focus on the $300+ billion of Russian reserves immobilised abroad, inside Russia the bullion that has been freed from domestic vaults is being monetised in real time to fund military spending. For global traders this distinction is critical. A top-three producer has been severed from the international financial system, its policy reaction function reshaped by sanctions, domestic rouble liquidity ballooning, and its reserve-management office now treating gold as an operational instrument rather than a macro hedge. When a central bank sitting on almost $720 bn of reserves (including frozen assets) concludes that only physical gold is a "clean" settlement asset, the resulting flow becomes a structural bid that cannot be ignored. It is a slow-motion but powerful source of demand that is appearing just as the other drivers of gold—declining real yields, brittle geopolitics and the steady de-dollarisation wave—are already repricing the metal to a new equilibrium. In effect, Russia has become a price-insensitive, forced buyer of its own output.

China is accumulating quietly but at scale. The Global South continues to add. Western portfolios remain structurally under-weight. Each time the market tries to declare gold "soft", another sovereign reminds participants that, in a fragmented monetary architecture, the gold is the only asset that cannot be frozen. That is why dips are shallow and why any window of weakness is instantly filled by physical offtake. Gold is no longer merely a trade. It is becoming the settlement medium of a world in which trust is evaporating faster than liquidity.

The recent U.S. federal-government shutdown delayed the release of key employment reports, amplifying macro uncertainty and complicating the Fed's assessment of labor-market conditions. That dynamic has, in turn, lifted demand for safe-haven assets such as gold. Investors will scrutinize the belated September non-farm payroll (NFP) release for evidence of the labor market's underlying health and for clearer guidance on the U.S. rate trajectory. A print below consensus would raise the probability of a December rate cut and thereby provide additional upside to bullion; lower policy rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. Conversely, a diminution in near-term easing expectations would exert downward pressure on gold prices.

The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee's October 28–29 meeting revealed that Fed officials were divided and cautious about the future path of interest rates. Although the Committee ultimately decided to cut the policy rate by 25 bp, the decision was not unanimous. Some participants leaned against an additional reduction at the December meeting. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the market now assigns a roughly 30% probability to a rate cut next month, down from about 60% a week earlier.

The Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart are contracting, with bandwidth narrowing significantly. After a brief break above the psychological 4,100 level, the gold price met strong resistance and reversed. The short-term downtrend remains intact. The MACD is on the verge of forming a bearish crossover. Both the fast and slow lines have pulled back to the zero axis, raising the probability of a sudden directional shift. RSI reads 45, reflecting pronounced bearish sentiment. Immediate resistance is at 4,100, followed by 4,150.

Daily Time Frame:

On the daily chart, the MACD histogram's upward momentum is visibly waning while price has failed to print a higher high—classic bearish divergence. The probability of a continued pullback is elevated. Downside support rests first at the lower Bollinger Band (3,878) and then at the EMA50 (3,956). RSI sits at 52, placing price in a wait-and-see zone, but successive lower highs reinforce the bearish bias.

Therefore, traders are recommended to take a strategy of selling into rallies.

Trade Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 4070

Target Price: 3600

Stop Loss: 4390

Support: 3900/3800/3600

Resistance Levels: 4380/4500/5000

A sharp sell-off in the cryptocurrency market has triggered a liquidation cascade, soaring past $100 million in a single 60-minute period as the price of Bitcoin (BTC) breached a critical psychological threshold.

Bitcoin retreated to a low of $89,037 shortly before 1:00 PM (Eastern Time), extending the bearish action seen over the past few days. This represents a 4% drop on the day and a cumulative loss of 12.3% for the week, according to CoinGecko data. With Bitcoin piercing the psychologically significant $90,000 level, the overall sentiment across the crypto market has plunged into "Extreme Fear," as measured by the Crypto Fear and Greed Index.

Major digital currencies are facing pronounced setbacks in the current session. Ethereum (ETH), XRP, and Dogecoin (DOGE) have all fallen by more than 7% over 24 hours. ETH, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, is trading hands around $2,900, while Solana (SOL) has slipped 6% toward the $131 mark.

In significant industry news, crypto exchange Kraken, one of the sector's most venerable platforms, has confidentially filed paperwork for an Initial Public Offering (IPO) in the United States. This strategic move occurs during a year marked by a boom in crypto-industry listings, fueled in part by a seemingly friendlier regulatory environment for the sector under the current administration.

Kraken, founded in 2011, has been operational longer than many of its peers and has hinted for years at its plans to become a publicly traded company on the U.S. market. The company now offers a comprehensive product suite that spans over 450 digital assets, U.S. futures, stocks, Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), and institutional services. Its recent valuation soared to $20 billion after its most recent funding round, reflecting a remarkable 33% increase in less than two months.

In a strong indication of its ambitious vision to transform into an "exchange of everything," Coinbase appears to be developing early-stage features to integrate prediction markets and tokenized stock trading directly into its mobile application. Independent analysis of the app's code has uncovered testing interfaces that suggest the cryptocurrency platform is working toward becoming a multifaceted hub, allowing users access to diverse markets through a single, unified interface.

This revelation stems from detailed scrutiny performed by independent researcher Jane Manchun Wong, who decompiled publicly available Coinbase app code and shared screenshots on X (formerly Twitter). According to Wong, the app displays tabs labeled "Stocks" and "Predictions," alongside regulatory disclosures suggesting integration with Kalshi, a U.S.-regulated prediction market operator. One explicit fine-print note, according to coverage, states: "Prediction markets are offered by Coinbase Financial Markets through KalshiEX LLC."

The BTC/USD pair rapidly declined amid the liquidation cascade, dropping to the $88,700 level. This price point is historically significant: on two prior occasions, price action briefly touched this region (back in December of last year) before mounting a sharp reversal. If this technical pattern repeats, it could signal a strong bullish rebound from this current zone. A key technical indicator bolstering this outlook is the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which plunged to 21.79 on the daily chart —levels not seen at any point during this year—a condition that typically encourages buyers to step in and take control.

The 100-period and 200-period Moving Averages (MAs) are positioned around $111,093 and $110,305, respectively, indicating that the medium-term average price sits near the $110,000 mark. A potential upward correction could be drawn toward the vicinity of these MAs. The nearest major resistance is located at $107,400, suggesting that the price and the moving averages could converge near this zone during an initial upswing. However, a new wave of selling pressure and a decisive break below the current local low would invalidate this bullish setup, opening the path for a deeper and more significant correction.

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 91350

Target price: 107000

Stop loss: 82000

Validity: Dec 02, 2025 15:00:00

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated after his first bilateral meeting with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi that the central bank remains committed to gradually adjusting the pace of monetary easing, signaling its firm intent to raise interest rates.

Kazuo Ueda told reporters after the meeting: “The mechanism where inflation and wages rise in tandem is recovering. Therefore, I explained to the Prime Minister that we are gradually adjusting the scale of monetary easing.”

This meeting comes as investors focus on Sanae Takaichi's stance on monetary policy and await details of the economic stimulus plan to be released this week. Kazuo Ueda stated, “We discussed foreign exchange issues. The central bank will closely monitor its impact on the economy while working closely with the government.” He also emphasized that the Bank of Japan will make appropriate policy decisions based on economic data.

Market Watch: Despite the Bank of Japan's recent “resolute” stance on monetary policy, the yen continues to depreciate. This trend stems from multiple structural factors, policy divergences, and market expectations.

Previously, although Japan's policy interest rates had been raised, they remained at exceptionally low levels. For instance, as of now, the Bank of Japan's benchmark interest rate stands at approximately 0.50%, while major economies like the U.S. maintain significantly higher rates. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds has even reached around 4%.

Interest rates directly influence capital flows. When the yield on dollar-denominated assets significantly exceeds that of yen-denominated assets, investors tend to allocate funds toward dollar assets, thereby selling yen and buying dollars.

The interest rate differential between Japan and the U.S. is a key driver behind the JPYUSD's depreciation. Consequently, even though the Bank of Japan appears “resolute,” its policy remains relatively accommodative with low interest rates, making it difficult for the yen to benefit from the interest rate differential advantage.

On Wednesday, the USDJPY rally remains intact with an upward bias for the day. A break above the 100% retracement level of 156.05, located between 146.58 and 153.26, would pave the way for testing resistance at 158.85. Currently, as long as the 153.60 support level holds, the outlook remains bullish even if a pullback occurs.

From a broader perspective, the current price action indicates that the corrective pattern originating from 161.94 (2024 high) has completed at 139.87, forming a three-wave structure. The larger uptrend dating back to 102.58 (2021 low) may be poised to resume, with potential to break above the 161.94 high.

On the downside, a break below the 149.37 support level would undermine this bullish outlook and lead to the continuation of the corrective pattern, forming a new wave of decline.

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 155.80

Target Price: 161.06

Stop Loss: 152.50

Valid Until: December 4, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 154.78, 153.66, 152.88

Resistance: 155.89, 156.78, 158.91

GBP/USD modestly retreated on Wednesday, following the release of UK inflation data for October that underscored a slowdown in consumer price growth. At the time of writing, the pair was trading at 1.3120, having peaked earlier at 1.3154, as investors digested the latest economic signals that may influence the Bank of England’s (BoE) policy stance.

According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) eased to 3.6% year-on-year in October from 3.8% in September, broadly in line with market expectations. Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy components, also ticked down to 3.4% from 3.5% — marking its lowest reading since March. The softening inflation data prompted a retreat in sterling, as market participants increasingly priced in a potential BoE rate cut at the central bank’s upcoming December meeting.

Money market instruments suggest an 85% probability of a 25-basis-point rate reduction, according to London Stock Exchange data. Analysts point out that the decline in CPI reflects persistent challenges in the UK economy, with consumer spending under pressure and inflationary pressures moderating. The release of Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ Autumn Budget on November 26 is expected to be a key near-term catalyst, with sterling potentially vulnerable to fiscal policy announcements that could influence market sentiment.

Meanwhile, U.S. data provided a mixed backdrop for global risk sentiment. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending October 18 rose to 232,000, yet the market reaction was muted. Attention has shifted toward Thursday’s Nonfarm Payroll report for September, with consensus estimates suggesting an increase of 50,000 jobs, up from August’s revised 22,000. Traders are also awaiting updates on retail activity and durable goods orders, with the U.S. Census Bureau scheduled to release September data next week.

Investor focus remains sharply on the Federal Reserve as well, with anticipated commentary from Governor Stephen Miran and regional Fed Presidents John Williams and Thomas Barkin expected to provide guidance on the trajectory of U.S. monetary policy. The combination of muted U.S. labor market signals and UK inflation trends may contribute to heightened volatility in GBP/USD ahead of these events.

On the technical front, GBP/USD faced renewed selling pressure during intraday trading. The pair fell below its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA50), breaking the bullish corrective trend line that had previously supported price action. This shift has intensified negative momentum, reinforced by the return of bearish signals on the relative strength index (RSI) after clearing oversold conditions.

If the pair fails to reclaim the EMA50 zone, further downside targets appear likely. Key support levels are identified at 1.3040, 1.3000, and the major support zone at 1.2860. A sustained move below these levels could confirm a broader bearish phase, aligning with market expectations of a potential BoE easing cycle.

SELL GBPUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.3080

STOP LOSS: 1.3230

TAKE PROFIT: 1.2860

Gold extended its recovery on Wednesday, rising toward the $4,113 level as a renewed wave of risk aversion rippled through global markets, prompting investors to rotate back into defensive assets. The metal gained nearly 1% intraday after holding firm above $4,000—a crucial psychological zone that once again acted as a strong support during Tuesday’s dip. The rebound highlights the market’s persistent inclination to treat gold as a volatility shield whenever sentiment begins to fracture.

The broader risk environment has deteriorated meaningfully this week as concerns about stretched technology valuations continue to dominate market discussions. Investors remain increasingly cautious ahead of Nvidia’s earnings, which have become a litmus test for the entire AI-driven equity narrative. With global indices under pressure and traders questioning whether the tech rally has reached an unsustainable inflection point, the appetite for safe-haven allocations has grown steadily stronger. In my view, the current pullback in equities is less a sign of panic and more an early form of risk hedging as markets brace for a potentially pivotal week in macroeconomic data.

The cautious tone has been amplified by anticipation surrounding the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes due later in the day. Markets are eager to gauge the internal dynamics of the September policy debate, particularly as Federal Reserve officials have recently shown signs of diverging views regarding the need for further rate cuts. At the same time, traders are preparing for the delayed September Nonfarm Payrolls report scheduled for Thursday. The unusual delay has only intensified the market’s sensitivity to the release, with both bulls and bears unwilling to take aggressive positions ahead of the print. The labour market’s trajectory remains one of the most important missing pieces in the Federal Reserve’s evolving narrative, and gold is reacting accordingly as uncertainty builds.

Despite the uptick in safe-haven flows, gold’s upside potential remains naturally constrained by shifting interest-rate expectations. Several Fed policymakers have pushed back against the prospect of a December rate cut, arguing that inflation progress remains incomplete, even as cracks appear in pockets of the labour market. This mixture of lingering price pressures and mild employment softening has produced an environment in which policymakers appear more divided than they have been in months. As a result, traders have scaled back expectations for imminent rate cuts, reinforcing a “higher for longer” backdrop that tends to place a ceiling on gold’s near-term rallies. In my assessment, the metal is now entering a phase where sentiment-driven volatility may overshadow fundamental conviction, making gold’s path forward less linear and more reactive to incremental data surprises.

On the technical front, gold’s upward push has been reinforced by a firm break above the $4,100 level, with price action now comfortably trading above the 50-day exponential moving average. This move has aligned price with a minor short-term bullish trend, suggesting that momentum remains favourable for the bulls. Momentum indicators have shown the emergence of positive signals as well, although they have already reached overbought territory. This raises the possibility that upside progression may slow or temporarily pause before the next leg higher. However, in strong trending markets, overbought conditions are not always a precursor to a pullback; rather, they can signal underlying strength among buyers who remain willing to step in on modest dips.

The immediate technical landscape points toward potential extensions toward $4,160 and then $4,250 if buyers maintain control. A sustained daily close above $4,160 would strengthen the bullish case and open the door for a larger continuation phase targeting the upper ranges of the recent trend. Conversely, failure to hold above the $4,100 zone may expose gold to corrective pressures, particularly if Nvidia’s earnings surprise positively and help restore appetite for high-growth equities. Such a shift could briefly weaken the safe-haven narrative and trigger profit-taking among short-term traders.

BUY GOLD

ENTRY PRICE: 4120

STOP LOSS: 4010

TAKE PROFIT: 4250