Geopolitical Risk vs. USD Rebound — Gold Consolidates at High Levels

Summary:

Gold has pulled back from a one-week high of $4,871 to around $4,800, pressured by a 0.3% rebound in the U.S. dollar from its March lows. Despite uncertainty surrounding U.S.-Iran negotiations and ongoing instability in the Strait of Hormuz, the current pullback appears to be a healthy correction within an uptrend. If geopolitical risks persist and USD momentum weakens, gold may regain upside traction toward the $5,000 level.

BUY XAUUSD

EXP

TRADING

4811.05

Entry Price

5100.00

4529.00

4730.34 -9.23 -0.19%

0.0

Pips

Flat

4529.00

Exit Price

4811.05

Entry Price

5100.00

Fundamentals

Gold retreated intraday after briefly reaching a weekly high of $4,871 and is now trading near the $4,800 area. The U.S. Dollar Index has rebounded by 0.3% from its March 5 low, acting as the primary headwind for gold.

Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz remain elevated, and the likelihood of a comprehensive U.S.-Iran agreement in the near term appears low. As such, geopolitical risk premium continues to provide underlying support for gold prices.

That said, the current pullback is viewed as a structural correction within an ongoing uptrend. As long as the broader bullish structure remains intact, the medium-term recovery is expected to continue.

Geopolitical Risk vs. USD Rebound — Gold Consolidates at High Levels_1

Technical Analysis

Gold has formed a new consolidation range between $4,780 and $4,880. On the daily chart, price remains supported above the ascending trendline (currently near $4,750), indicating that the uptrend from January remains intact.

RSI has rebounded from the 50 midpoint, suggesting stabilizing momentum.

MACD histogram is contracting toward the zero line, reflecting short-term balance between bulls and bears. A renewed bullish crossover with expanding volume would strengthen upside expectations.

On the upside, a daily close above $4,880 would confirm a continuation of the rally, opening the door to test the $5,000 psychological level.

On the downside, a break below the $4,750 trendline could trigger a deeper pullback toward the $4,680 neckline.

Trading Strategy

Direction: Buy

Entry: 4765

Target: 5100

Stop Loss: 4529

Valid Until: 2026-05-10 23:55

Support: 4731, 4698, 4666

Resistance: 4800, 4855, 4865

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