ATFX Market Outlook – 9th April 2026

Ceasefire Revives Risk Appetite as U.S. Inflation Data Takes Focus

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

Summary

·       Progress in the U.S.-Iran ceasefire boosted risk appetite, though fighting between Israel and Hezbollah continues, showing tensions remain unstable.

·       Fed minutes showed more policymakers were concerned inflation may stay too high, but the ceasefire has also revived expectations for possible rate cuts later this year.

·       Today’s focus: Against the backdrop of the ceasefire agreement, the U.S. will release its latest inflation reports on Thursday and Friday. Tonight’s February Core PCE Price Index YoY is expected at 3.0%, down slightly from the previous 3.1%. The data may partly reflect the inflation shock from higher oil prices driven by the Middle East conflict, though the pass-through to core inflation is still in its early stages. For now, markets remain more focused on the ceasefire itself, which could reduce the data's immediate impact.

Global Market Review

U.S. stocks rallied strongly on Wednesday after the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, lifting investor sentiment. The Dow Jones rose 2.85%, the S&P 500 gained 2.5%, and the Nasdaq advanced 2.8%. As safe-haven demand eased, U.S. Treasury yields declined and the U.S. Dollar Index fell to a one-month low.

Gold climbed to its highest level in nearly three weeks as both the U.S. dollar and oil prices weakened after Washington and Tehran agreed to pause the war for two weeks, easing inflation concerns. Spot gold rose 0.29% to $4,716.12 per ounce. Meanwhile, WTI crude plunged 12.47%, falling back below $100 per barrel.

Key Events Today:

14:00 EU GERMANY Industrial Production MoM FEB ** 
20:30 US GDP & Core PCE Prices Q4 ***
20:30 US Core PCE Price Index YoY FEB ***
20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims *** 

Tomorrow:
07:50 JP PPI YoY MAR ** 
09:30 CN CPI & PPI YoY MAR **
14:00 EU GERMANY CPI YoY MAR ** 
20:30 CA Unemployment Rate MAR** 
20:30 US CPI YoY MAR *** 
22:00 US Factory Orders MoM FEB** 
22:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel APR ***

EURUSD

Resistance: 1.1728/1.1766
Support: 1.1600/1.1570

EURUSD stayed soft at nearly 1.1655 as the US dollar steadied after yesterday’s sharp selloff. The pair is now caught between fading relief sentiment from the temporary US-Iran ceasefire and renewed caution as risks in the Strait of Hormuz re-emerge, while today’s US PCE data could decide whether the dollar rebound extends.

Analyst View: EURUSD is falling below the 1.1697 area after its sharp rebound, suggesting upside momentum has cooled for now. As long as 1.1600–1.1570 holds, the pullback looks corrective, but a break back above 1.1728 is needed to revive bullish continuation.

Bias: Mildly bullish below 1.1700

GBPUSD

Resistance: 1.3479/1.3516
Support: 1.3357/1.3319

GBPUSD eased back to around 1.3386 after surging to 1.3420 yesterday, its best daily gain in three weeks. Sterling was lifted by the ceasefire-driven drop in oil prices and a broader risk recovery, but today the move is cooling as the dollar stabilizes and traders reassess whether the Middle East truce can hold.

Analyst View: GBPUSD is consolidating after a sharp relief-driven spike, with momentum fading just below the 1.3432 resistance area. As long as 1.3357–1.3319 holds, downside may stay limited, but a clean break above 1.3479 is needed to reopen stronger upside.

Bias: Hovering around 1.3400

USDJPY

Resistance: 159.34/159.77
Support: 158.29/157.95

USDJPY firmed to around 158.9 as the dollar stabilized and Treasury yields held near 4.29%. The pair is being supported by renewed energy-driven inflation fears and cautious Fed minutes, while the yen is not fully benefiting from haven demand as the market stays focused on yield differentials and official rhetoric from Japan.

Analyst View: USDJPY is trying to stabilize after rebounding from the 157.95 support zone, but upside still looks capped below 159.34–159.77. Unless price reclaims that resistance band, this recovery may remain a corrective bounce rather than a fresh bullish extension.

Bias: Mildly bearish

US Crude Oil Futures (MAY)

Resistance: 101.95/107.91
Support: 92.32/87.50

WTI plunged more than 16% yesterday on the shock of the ceasefire, then rebounded to around $96.99 in Asia as traders questioned how real the reopening of Hormuz is. Oil is now trading less on the headline truce itself and more on whether regional disruptions, tolls and shipping restrictions will keep supply tight.

Analyst View: WTI is attempting a technical rebound after its capitulation drop, but the price remains below the former 101.95–107.91 resistance band. Unless oil can reclaim that zone, the bounce may stay fragile, with 92.32 and 87.50 still acting as key downside markers.

Bias: Bearish below $100

Spot Gold (XAU/USD)

Resistance: 4806/4939
Support: 4672/4538

Spot Silver

Resistance: 78.91/82.34
Support: 72.07/67.84

Gold held around $4,718 after violent swings, having earlier touched roughly $4,777. Bullion is balancing two opposing forces: relief from the ceasefire has reduced some panic demand, but renewed doubts over Gulf stability, sticky inflation risk and a softer dollar backdrop are keeping prices elevated.

Analyst View: Gold is easing after testing the $4,806 resistance zone, suggesting bullish momentum has softened near overhead supply. Still, as long as $$4,672–4,538 holds, the structure remains constructive, with buyers likely to watch dips rather than chase strength.

Bias: Mildly bullish

Dow Jones Futures

Resistance: 48440/49080
Support: 47159/46367

The Dow jumped 1,325 points, or about 2.8%, to 47,909.92 as the market rushed to price out part of the oil shock and recession scare. But futures softened again in Asia, suggesting the relief rally is being tested as investors realize the ceasefire is fragile and inflation risk may not be gone.

Analyst View: The Dow has staged a sharp relief rebound, but the price is now testing the 47,799 pivot after bouncing from the 46,367 support zone. A sustained break higher would improve sentiment, while failure there could leave the rebound looking more corrective than decisive.

Bias: Hovering around 48,000

NASDAQ 100

Resistance: 25674/26165
Support: 24506/24115

NAS100 rose to 24,903.17 as lower oil briefly revived appetite for duration-sensitive growth stocks. Still, if oil re-accelerates and Fed pricing turns less dovish after PCE, tech could lose some of that momentum because the market would quickly reprice rate and valuation pressure.

Analyst View: The NAS100 is rebounding from the 24,115 support zone, but price is now approaching the 25,289 pivot, where follow-through matters. A firm push above it would strengthen the recovery tone, while rejection there could quickly revive pressure on tech sentiment.

Bias: Bullish above 24,800

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

Resistance: 73104/74382

Support: 69204/67595

Bitcoin traded near $70,779 after briefly hitting $72,716, but gains faded as ceasefire-driven risk appetite cooled. Markets are now reassessing how fragile the US-Iran truce is and whether renewed energy risks could again pressure sentiment.

Analyst View: Bitcoin is consolidating after failing to sustain a breakout above the $73,104–$74,382 resistance, indicating that bullish momentum has cooled. As long as $69,204–$67,595 holds, the structure still favors dip-buying, but another push higher will need fresh risk appetite.

Bias: Neutral to slightly bullish

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