XRP ‘distribution’ phase does not change $30 price target: Analysts

XRP’s  price fell 44% to $2.06 from its multi-year high of $3.66 reached on July 18, before recovering to current levels around $2.43. Is it finally headed for a deeper correction, or is there a more substantial rally in the cards?

Key takeaways:

• XRP’s macro outlook is bullish, with some predictions calling for a $30 top.

• Multiple bullish catalysts include the likely approval of spot XRP ETFs in the US.

XRP’s macro outlook remains bullish

XRP price action reveals a consolidation within a symmetrical triangle on the monthly chart, suggesting that it may be preparing another bullish impulse, according to analyst Egrag Crypto.

In a Tuesday post on X, the analyst told his followers not to be “frustrated by the sideways chop and the boring price action.”

Related: XRP lawyer runs again for US Senate seat in 2026

Egrag Crypto explained that XRP’s price action is similar to that seen in past cycles, where the price drops to create new levels for distribution before a major breakout.

An accompanying chart showed that after an almost 50% pullback in July 2017 and December 2020, the price recovered, printing “massive” bullish monthly candles.

The analyst added:

“If XRP doesn’t soon print a massive white/green/blue candle style like in 2017 or 2021, targeting $10 to $37, then sure, doubt all you want.”

Fellow analyst XForceGlobal said, although there are minor market inefficiencies on lower time frames, the “macro chart shows clear accumulation and a solid price floor after almost a year of distribution.”

According to the analyst, XRP distribution will continue to complete the flat period between Wave 1 and Wave 2, before making a massive move to the upside in Wave 3.

In another X post on Monday, XForceglobal said:

XRP price breakout catalysts

Several factors could fuel XRP’s breakout to double digits, including President Trump’s $2,000 tariff dividend announcement on Sunday and the reopening of the US government following a bipartisan Senate deal. 

The latter could restart SEC operations and clear ETF approval backlogs, with analysts forecasting near-term gains of 20%–25% to $ 3.60 or higher upon approval of spot XRP ETFs.

Meanwhile, Canary Capital’s XRP ETF is set to be the first US-based fund to hold XRP, following the company’s key SEC filing that could see it launch on Thursday.

In a Tuesday interview on The Paul Barron Show podcast, Steven McClurg, CEO of Canary Capital, said that spot XRP ETFs are expected to see $5-$10 billion in first-month inflows, potentially doubling the impact seen with spot Solana ETFs. 

Nine competing filings have been listed at DTCC, amplifying the potential capital inflows.

The Fed’s Oct. 29 rate cut to 3.75%–4.00% (the second in 2025), combined with 63% odds of a further 0.25% cut in December alongside possible quantitative easing, adds to the macro tailwinds. 

Together, these catalysts could spark an explosive cycle, though resistance at $2.80 and profit-taking by long-term holders are likely to continue keeping the bulls in check. 

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.