TD Cowen sees 170% upside for Strategy shares despite mNAV dip, bitcoin battering

TD Cowen said Strategy’s recent drop below an mNAV of 1 — meaning that its stock is trading at a discount to the market value of its bitcoin holdings — and bitcoin falling to seven-month lows haven’t changed its long-term outlook, arguing the firm still has substantial upside as its bitcoin accumulation model scales.

Analysts Lance Vitanza and Jonnathan Navarrete maintained their price target of $585 for MSTR — which implies roughly 170% upside from Strategy’s current share price near $194 according to The Block's price page — noting that the current weakness more so reflects market volatility rather than any shift in the company’s ability to accumulate incremental bitcoin.

Bitcoin itself has struggled to find its footing over the past month, sliding from an early-October record above $126,000 to roughly $92,700 today — below where it opened 2025 at about $93,400. Even so, Strategy Chairman Michael Saylor hasn’t been deterred, executing the company's largest bitcoin purchase since July, lifting its holdings to 649,870 BTC — more than 3% of the total bitcoin supply.

The analysts continue to model Strategy holding 815,000 BTC by the end of 2027, projecting more than $185 billion in bitcoin holdings based on their base-case price assumptions. At that level, Strategy’s intrinsic bitcoin value per share would sit near the firm’s target, which the Cowen analysts called a reasonable outcome over the next year given the company’s embedded leverage to BTC.

Cowen also pointed to several potential tailwinds, including the possibility that Strategy is added to the S&P 500 in December 2025 — a move the firm said could broaden institutional ownership and add stability to flows into the stock. Broader regulatory clarity around bitcoin, particularly in areas such as KYC, AML, and federal tax treatment, was also cited as supportive for sentiment.

While Strategy is now primarily valued for its treasury operations, Cowen noted that continued adoption of its cloud software offerings remains an incremental contributor.

The analysts reiterated that Strategy is best suited for investors with a long time horizon who expect bitcoin to outperform other assets, adding that its capital structure remains designed to translate market appetite for yield and leverage into more BTC over time.

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