Rio Tinto Gets Tailwind on Copper Costs From Gold Rally — Market Talk

Palm oil prices are higher in early Asian trading, supported by stronger overnight soybean oil on the Chicago Board of Trade as well as higher palm olein prices on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, says David Ng, a trader at Kuala Lumpur-based Iceberg X. However, the price uptrend isn't likely to sustain, given expectations for higher output and stocks in the coming weeks, he adds. Ng reckons that CPO futures could find support at 4,480 ringgit a ton and face resistance at 4,600 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for December delivery rises 17 ringgit to 4,516 ringgit a ton. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

Indonesian gold miners' shares are poised for a re-rating as the precious metal's record highs whet investor appetite, say Nomura analysts in a note. They project the sector to deliver 31% average production compound annual growth rate over FY 2026-FY 2029, which could translates to 45% earnings CAGR over the period. Indonesia's gold sector offers an attractive 45% total shareholder return for FY 2026, thanks to earnings growth, they write. Some miners could also benefit from inclusion in gold ETF indexes, they add. Nomura says shares of Bumi Resources Minerals and Archi Indonesia could see strong upside as they start mining reserves. Meanwhile, Merdeka Gold Resources and Indika Energy starting gold operations in 2026 could drive sustained sector growth. Archi is Nomura's top pick. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)

Gold prices hit another record high of $4,140 per ounce on Tuesday, with investors ramping up safe-haven buying amid US-China trade tensions and increased bets of US interest rate cuts.

US President Trump last week reignited the trade war with China, threatening a fresh round of tariffs on Chinese goods and imposing export controls.

In response, Beijing vowed countermeasures if Trump follows through.

Market anxiety also lingered over the prolonged US government shutdown, which Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said is beginning to affect the economy.

Meanwhile, investors are now awaiting remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the NABE annual meeting later today, hoping to gain insights on the US central bank’s rate-cut path.

Traders are currently pricing in a 97% probability of a 25bps rate cut in October and a 90% chance for December.

Iron ore prices are lower in early Asian trade amid trade uncertainties. Iron ore prices will likely follow trade development in the short term, Nanhua Futures analysts say in a research note. If the U.S.-China trade tensions ease, iron ore's prices could see upside, they note. Meanwhile, steel demand is relatively weak amid declining margins, while iron ore supply is accumulating, the analysts say. The steel-making material's price will likely fluctuate in the near term, they add. The most traded iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange is down 1.9% to CNY783.0 a ton. (sherry.qin@wsj.com)

Copper edges lower but may be supported by tight supply and resilient demand across base metals. Chile's Codelco has warned that its El Teniente mine will run below capacity for the next several months, tightening copper supply, ANZ researchers say in a note. Meanwhile, demand from China remains strong, with refined copper imports climbing to 485,000 tons lately, the highest level this year. China's imports of copper concentrate also remained robust at 2.59 million tons, they add. The three-month copper contract on the LME is down 0.12% at $10,807.00 a ton.(jason.chau@wsj.com)

Barclays reckons Rio Tinto could narrowly miss 2025 Pilbara iron-ore shipment guidance. In a note, its analysts highlight continuing maintenance at the operations through 4Q. They reckon 3Q shipments "were a touch weak" and say reaching the bottom end of Rio's 323 million-338 million ton guidance will take the highest shipments since 4Q 2020. The stock is up 2.3% in Sydney at A$128.12. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)