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Inflation, macro cycles and Bitcoin’s dual roles

Inflation sits at the center of modern economic cycles. When inflation is high, central banks raise interest rates, reduce liquidity and push investors toward safer assets. When inflation falls, liquidity usually improves, risk appetite returns and markets start to focus on future growth.

In this environment, Bitcoin serves two distinct purposes:

• A store of value, supported by its fixed supply and predictable issuance schedule.

• A high-risk technology asset strongly influenced by liquidity, market sentiment and broader risk cycles.

Periods of cooling inflation often mark the point where these two objectives mix or compete, depending on the stage of the cycle.

Historical examples: Bitcoin’s behavior during past periods of cooling inflation

An analysis of historical market cycles helps show how declining inflation rates influence Bitcoin’s price and volatility.

2013-2015: Digital gold narrative

Following Bitcoin’s first major price surge in 2013, global inflation declined, and risk appetite weakened. The cryptocurrency entered a long consolidation period. Investors began exploring Bitcoin as a potential long-term store of value similar to gold. Price movement was slow, but the foundational narrative grew stronger.

2018-2019: Institutions enter the conversation

After the 2017 peak, inflation cooled, and central banks tightened policy. Bitcoin stayed range-bound through much of 2018-2019, yet important developments took place:

• US financial institutions began researching Bitcoin as a non-correlated portfolio hedge.

• Custody services and futures markets were launched.

• The store-of-value narrative gained credibility. Cooling inflation did not trigger an immediate rally, but it laid the groundwork for future institutional adoption.

2022-2024: Bitcoin becomes a macro asset

When inflation hit a 41-year high in 2022 and later cooled in 2023-2024, Bitcoin entered its next phase:

• Bitcoin stopped acting as an inflation hedge.

• It became far more responsive to liquidity and rate expectations.

• Exchange-traded funds (ETFs), institutional flows and tokenization narratives expanded.

As inflation declined and risk appetite improved, Bitcoin shifted from a crisis hedge to a growth-oriented asset.

Did you know? The first Bitcoin block mined by Satoshi Nakamoto on Jan. 3, 2009, includes a hidden headline from The Times newspaper that highlights bank bailouts. It was not only technical but also a symbolic critique of the traditional financial system.

How cooling inflation influences the Bitcoin story

Declining inflation rates and Bitcoin’s path have a complex relationship. Shifts in the macroeconomic environment influence its perceived value and its role as a digital asset.

• From inflation hedge to beneficiary of easier money: When inflation falls, the urgent need for protective hedges fades. Investors instead favor assets that perform well in a looser monetary environment. Bitcoin has often shown stronger performance after the central bank signals a pause or cut in rates when real yields peak and when liquidity is expected to increase.

• Renewed focus on its store-of-value properties: Falling inflation brings greater long-term economic stability and reminds investors of Bitcoin’s fixed supply schedule.

• Return of speculation and retail participation: Lower inflation shifts the mood from fear to opportunity and leads to higher leverage, increased altcoin activity and greater retail trading volume.

• Stronger institutional commitment: As macro uncertainty decreases, institutions feel more comfortable adding Bitcoin to portfolios, increasing ETF inflows and balance-sheet holdings.

Typical price patterns during cooling inflation

Analysis of Bitcoin’s price patterns during periods of cooling inflation shows a complex history marked by quick swings in price driven by varying macro- and microeconomic factors.

Across its cycles, Bitcoin has shown four characteristic behaviors:

• Heightened volatility at the start of the cooling phase as markets debate whether a policy shift is coming

• Strong and sustained rallies once rate cuts or pauses become likely

• Initially higher correlation with technology stocks that later decreases as conditions stabilize

• Price reversals and new uptrends that often begin before inflation reaches its lowest point.

Cooling inflation usually creates favorable conditions for Bitcoin:

• Lowers discount rates and raises the present value of scarce long-duration assets

• Improves overall liquidity and makes risk assets more appealing

• Reduces economic uncertainty and boosts long-term confidence

• In some cycles, falling inflation coincided with stabler energy costs, which benefited miners

• Encourages institutional investment by removing major macroeconomic hurdles.

Together, these factors have historically aligned with periods of stronger market performance.

Cooling inflation: Why the Bitcoin all-clear is a trap

Cooling inflation is not a reliable signal of sustained strength, and past cycles show that corrections can still occur.

Past cycles have shown:

• Over-optimism about imminent rate cuts

• Temporary drops in inflation followed by renewed increases

• Sudden risk-off events

• Unexpected regulatory actions that can override positive macro trends.

You also need to consider that different Bitcoin cycles may follow different paths driven by varied causes. For instance, today’s cooling inflation cycle is distinct from earlier ones because:

• Spot Bitcoin ETFs now exist and generate institutional demand.

• Tokenization and stablecoins have reached an advanced stage.

• Bitcoin’s scarcity narrative has become a major draw.

• Bitcoin’s response to liquidity conditions is better understood than ever.

Falling inflation may strengthen both of Bitcoin’s identities as a store of value and as a macro-sensitive asset. It may also lead to a more robust market.

Bolivia has officially embraced crypto banking, and it starts with USDT. After years of strict restrictions, the government has finally opened the doors for digital currencies to become part of the country’s legal financial system. 

With banks soon offering crypto accounts and cards, Bolivians will be using digital money for everyday life, faster, cheaper, and without the old limits.

From Crypto Ban to Full Support

For years, Bolivia maintained one of the strictest stances against cryptocurrencies, outright banning their use since 2014 due to concerns over financial stability, and warned citizens not to use them.

However, in June 2024, the Central Bank of Bolivia (BCB) lifted its blanket ban, authorizing crypto transactions through official electronic channels. 

Jose Gabriel Espinoza, Bolivia’s newly appointed Economy Minister, announced that the country will officially integrate cryptocurrencies into its financial structure. The shift starts with stablecoins like USDT, which are linked to real-world assets and avoid the high price swings seen in Bitcoin.

Banks Will Offer Crypto Services Soon

Under this new plan, banks will be allowed to:

• Provide savings accounts in crypto
• Offer crypto-based credit cards
• Approve loans that accept crypto payments

This means stablecoins will function like legal money for financial transactions inside the country. People will be able to use crypto for everyday spending and saving, something that was once completely prohibited.

Banco Bisa, one of the biggest banks in Bolivia, has already started rolling out services that allow customers to store and send stablecoins, especially for cross-border payments, where crypto offers faster and cheaper alternatives.

Bolivia Joins Latin America’s Crypto Wave

With this move, Bolivia now joins other Latin American countries such as Brazil and Argentina that are opening doors for crypto innovation. However, the transaction volumes have already surged by more than 500% in the last two years, showing that people are ready for change.

With this major policy reversal, Bolivia expects more crypto services, more investment, and faster economic progress as these changes continue.

UK digital asset custodian Copper believes Bitcoin’s months-long slide is approaching its final stage, with market dynamics now resembling “late downtrend behaviour,” the phase that historically precedes major reversals.

Copper, the London-based institutional crypto custodian founded by former UK Chancellor Philip Hammond, said in its Wednesday Opening Bell note that the mechanics driving Bitcoin’s decline have changed.

According to the firm, the early part of the current downtrend was dominated by high sensitivity to ETF flows, redemptions reliably pushed prices lower. But that relationship has now broken down.

ETF Influence Has Collapsed — A Key Late-Downtrend Signal

Copper’s analysts say the 30-day elasticity between ETF flows and returns has dropped to one of the lowest levels of the year, a tell-tale sign that the market has already absorbed heavy selling.

Copper has grouped Bitcoin ETF holdings into simple “bands,” structural zones showing where Bitcoin’s price tends to settle depending on how much Bitcoin ETFs are holding. They suggest that these bands have been surprisingly consistent:

• $40K–$60K: anchored by lower ETF ownership
• $70K–$90K: mid-level accumulation
• $100K–$120K: the upper structural plateau

These, Copper says, are not random clusters. They behave like stair-step price shelves that Bitcoin climbs as ETF demand grows.

Copper’s analysis shows that when ETFs first push Bitcoin into a new ownership band, the next 10 days historically see 10–13% gains. The market adjusts to the new level of institutional ownership during this period. However, once ETF inflows stabilize within that band, forward returns tend to flatten, meaning prices stop moving sharply and the market enters a more sideways phase.

Market is absorbing ETF selling

Bitcoin is currently trading around $86,000, but Copper says ETF holdings of BTC are mostly concentrated at the top of their historical range, in the highest ownership band, historically associated with the $100K–$120K price zone.

According to Copper, it’s not just the band itself that matters, but how Bitcoin behaves within it.

This, Copper says, explains why Bitcoin has sometimes risen even on negative ETF flow days, gains are absorbed, but without sustained inflows the market cannot build a new uptrend. According to the analysts, the market is in the final stage of the downtrend. A return to the $100K–$120K range depends on ETF flows shifting significantly, either retracing to a lower band for short-term upside, or pushing higher with strong accumulation to trigger a genuine breakout.

Coinbase Signals Positive Developments in Europe

While short-term signals remain mixed, the broader European institutional landscape is telling a different story.

Keith Grose, the new CEO of Coinbase UK, says the region is undergoing a structural shift in how regulated institutions engage with digital assets. One example: the Czech National Bank’s recent decision to test a small, ring-fenced digital asset portfolio, one of the first controlled pilots by an EU central bank.

Grose says moves like this are early but meaningful.

He adds that while the public may not yet feel the shift — “You’re not paying for groceries with Bitcoin in the UK yet” — Europe is quietly building the foundation for digital assets to become a meaningful part of future financial and payments infrastructure.

Dubai, UAE, November 26th, 2025, Chainwire

The Crypto Content Creator Campus (CCCC) 2025, supported by title sponsor Bybit, held its Lisbon 2025 Calling event earlier this month in Lisbon, Portugal. Under the theme “Monetization in the Web3 Era,” the three-day in-person gathering brought together creators from global markets for a curated program focused on education, collaboration and the future of digital influence in Web3. Leading voices in digital storytelling, including Nuseir Yassin (Nas Daily), Nick Tran, Philippe Ben Mohamed, Sergej Loiter and Dr. Maye Musk, shared their insights and experiences with participants.

To share the momentum of the Lisbon experience, Bybit hosted an online livestream titled “CCCC Lisbon 2025 Calling: Winner’s AMA”, reuniting the winners of the CCCC creator competition for an in-depth look at the production behind the contest's top-ranked video. The AMA panel, moderated by Meyade, featured Bybit Co-CEO Helen Liu, Coin Bureau’s Raheem and Nic, Bruno from Crypto Banter, Matthew from Empire Crypto Trading, filmmaker Baxter Persse and ShekCreator of Bitcoin Unlimited. 

Creators Praise CCCC as a True Collaborative Platform

During the AMA, speakers revisited how the Lisbon program created space for real conversations, peer-to-peer learning and creative experimentation. They noted that such focus and depth are rare in an industry landscape dominated by crowded, fast-paced expo halls.

ShekCreator (Bitcoin Unlimited) highlighted how CCCC’s structure allows creators to meaningfully exchange ideas and learn from one another. Bybit Co-CEO Helen Liu added that this year’s participants arrived with greater preparation and purpose, reflecting how seriously global creators now approach their craft.

Panelists from Coin Bureau, Crypto Banter and Empire Crypto Trading echoed these views, emphasizing the program’s ability to strengthen professional connections and raise creative standards across markets. 

Their reflections underscored CCCC’s mission to support the next generation of Web3 storytellers through expert guidance and community-driven growth.

Behind the Winning Film: “Grandma Likes to DCA”

After reflecting on the broader Lisbon experience, the AMA shifted to the story behind the winning film. The team originally planned a rug-pull narrative but pivoted when challenged to produce a simple, engaging explainer for a crypto newcomer. Their solution was to teach the concept of Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) through the perspective of a curious grandmother, combining humor with accessible education.

Filmed entirely on an iPhone, the piece embraced the rising trend of lightweight, authentic digital production. POV-style shots, a comedic fight sequence and an unexpected shower moment added distinctive creative flair while keeping the storyline relatable and entertaining.

Filmmaker Baxter Persse, who recently surpassed 100,000 YouTube subscribers, led an all-night editing sprint and completed the final cut just an hour before the deadline. He emphasized the importance of music choices, layered sound effects and the integration of news clips in building the emotional rhythm of the story, particularly in the sequence illustrating Bitcoin’s rise from $20,000 to $110,000.

Team members agreed that the final edit lifted the entire project. Bruno said it was the moment he felt confident they had produced a winning entry, while Matthew noted the value of observing Persse’s directing and post-production process up close.

Looking Ahead to CCCC 2026

The AMA concluded with the winning team expressing gratitude for the experience and enthusiasm for future collaborations. Bybit’s Helen Liu confirmed that the next edition of the Crypto Content Creator Campus will take place in Dubai in 2026, expanding the program’s global reach and building on the momentum established in Lisbon.

The continued growth of CCCC is reinforced by significant industry support. This year’s Lisbon edition was backed by Bybit EU and Zoomex as Diamond Sponsors, with WEEX and Mantle joining as Platinum Sponsors. Their contributions played an important role in elevating the creator experience, deepening the educational program and delivering meaningful value to participants across global markets.

About Crypto Content Creator Campus (CCCC)

CCCC is a team of industry experts and visionaries committed to shaping the future of content creation within the Web3 and crypto sphere. Driven by a shared passion for creating a high-value community, we've curated a campus that promises an experience unlike any other. The CCCC 2025 will be held in Lisbon, Portugal, from November 14 to 16, 2025.

For more details about CCCC, please visit: https://www.cccc.buzz/

For inquiries, please contact: hello@cccc.buzz

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Ethereum has seen a mild relief bounce over the past few days after finding support near $2,500. While the price action remains technically bearish overall, there has been a slight improvement in short-term structure. However, caution is still warranted as macro resistance levels loom overhead.Technical Analysis

By ShayanThe Daily Chart

On the Daily timeframe, it is evident that ETH is currently trading around $2,900 after bouncing off the $2,500 demand zone. This level held as strong support, triggering a short-term rally that has now brought the asset into a minor supply zone near $3,000. The RSI has also moved off oversold levels and is now sitting near 36, suggesting some cooling in bearish momentum.

Still, the price is well below the 200-day (Yellow) and 100-day (Blue) moving averages, which are acting as dynamic resistance. To shift the structure back to bullish, ETH needs to reclaim the $3,500 area and consolidate above it. Until then, upside moves are considered corrective. A failure here could result in another drop toward $2,500 or even the critical $2,100 low.

A bullish golden cross appeared on the Shiba Inu hourly chart early Wednesday, an indication of short-term bullish momentum.

A golden cross is formed when the short-term moving average (in this case, the hourly MA 50) crosses above the long-term MA 200 and follows, as Shiba Inu rose for three straight days from Sunday to Tuesday before it reclined. Hourly Chart, Courtesy: TradingView">

Shiba Inu rose from a low of $0.000008 on Nov. 23 to reach $0.0000089 on Tuesday. At press time, Shiba Inu was still retaining some of its gains, up 4.18% in the last 24 hours to $0.0000085.

The crypto market remains gripped by "extreme fear" following last week's sell-off and the lack of a meaningful recovery; therefore, a confirmation of the golden cross signal in the short term will be watched.

Golden cross signals are considered by some analysts to be lagging indicators, occurring when the price is oversold or overbought. The recent hourly golden cross signal for Shiba Inu will be watched in this regard.

If Shiba Inu sustains its rebound, it would face resistance levels at $0.00000967 and $0.00001213 next. On the other hand, support is expected in the range of $0.0000075 and $0.000008.

In the last 24 hours, Shiba Inu open interest, which refers to the total number of open positions on a futures or options market, reflecting liquidity and market activity, was slightly higher at $87.51 million, or 10,331,759,149,940 SHIB, according to CoinGlass data.

Shiba Inu gets boost from major announcements

In a recent announcement, Shiba Inu's official X account revealed a partnership with TokenPlayAI, expected to bring real token utility to $SHIB. This will be kicked off with an exclusive Shiba-themed miniapp allowing users to play and earn with SHIB.

Shiba Inu just stepped into real-world infrastructure, with Unity Nodes now fully powered by SHIB, giving the Shiba Inu community access to an entire telecom verification network.

Shiba Inu was recently added to Japan’s Green List, boosting legitimacy and easier exchange support. Coinbase Markets announced 24/7 SHIB futures trading, giving SHIB a bigger presence in global markets.

On Dec. 12, Coinbase will be launching new U.S. perpetual-style futures for all altcoins, including Shiba Inu.