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Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Launched Strikes Against Petrochemical Plants In The UAE, Kuwait, And Bahrain, An Oil Refinery In Israel, And A Gas Facility In The UAE. Further Attacks On Civilian Targets Within Iran Would Further Intensify The Damage To U.S. Economic Interests In The Region
According To Russian-appointed Officials, A Dry Bulk Carrier Carrying Wheat Sank In The Sea Of Azov, Killing One Person And Leaving Several Others Missing
Ukraine's State-owned Oil And Gas Company, Naftogaz, Said That Russia Attacked Its Facilities In The Poltava Region For The Second Consecutive Day
[Iranian Media Says Multiple US Soldiers Killed In Pilot Rescue Operation] April 5th, According To Xinhua News Agency Citing Iran's Fars News Agency, In The Operation To Rescue The Pilot Of A Downed Fighter Jet By The US Military, Multiple US Soldiers Were Killed. Sources Also Said That The US Military Tried To Destroy The Wreckage Of The Downed Aircraft, Even Destroying The Bodies Of The Deceased US Soldiers
An Israeli Security Official Said Israel Provided Intelligence Support In The U.S. Operation To Rescue A U.S. Air Force Pilot From Iran
Kuwait Oil Company Issued A Statement Confirming That Its Production Facilities Were Attacked By Iranian Drones, Causing Fires In Some Areas. No Casualties Were Reported
The Omani Foreign Ministry Said On Social Media Today That Oman And Iran Held A Vice-ministerial Level Meeting On Saturday, April 4, To Discuss Various Options To Ensure The Smooth Passage Of Ships Through The Strait Of Hormuz
The Democratic Republic Of Congo Has Announced That It Will Begin Receiving Repatriated Persons From Third Countries Who Are Coming From The United States
Hezbollah In Lebanon Launched A Volley Of Rockets At The Qafra Al-Sused Position At 09:15 Local Time On Sunday, May 4, 2026
The Bahrain Defense Forces Said It Has Intercepted 466 Drones And 188 Missiles From Iran Since The Start Of The War
The Israel Defense Forces Announced That It Has Launched An Airstrike On Hezbollah Infrastructure In Beirut
The U.S. Special Operations Aircraft Destroyed In Iran Are Valued At Over 100 Million U.S. Dollars Each
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy: All The Experience Russia Gained In The War Against Ukraine Is Being Shared With Iran. This Includes The "Shahed" Drone, The Same Type Used By Russia, Just With A Different Name, And Upgraded To A Newer Generation
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy: Russia Shared Satellite Intelligence On Israel's Energy System With Iran, Covering Approximately 50 To 53 Facilities. This Intelligence Was Used To Assist Iran In Launching Attacks. The Targets Were Civilian Infrastructure, Not Military In Nature. This Is Similar To Ukraine's Situation Under Russian Attack, Where Our Energy Grid Or Water Supply System Became Targets
Kuwait Airways: Regular Flights To And From India Will Resume On April 5th. These Flights Will Resume Via King Fahd International Airport
Ukrainian Drone Commander: Ukraine Attacked An Oil Refinery In Russia’s Nizhny Novgorod Region And The Baltic Port Of Primorsk

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根据多项技术和链上指标的综合分析,比特币可能正在形成局部底部,此前其价格已从两个月前创下的约12.62万美元历史新高回调超过35%。
要点:
动能、矿工投降和流动性指标均指向卖压正在减弱。
宏观流动性数据显示,BTC有望在未来四到六周内开始复苏。
比特币卖盘力量接近耗尽
截至12月,比特币的周线随机相对强弱指标(Stochastic RSI)已从超卖水平开始上扬,交易员Jesse指出,这一形态历史上常出现在关键转折点附近,价格随后会出现反弹,如下图所示。
类似的看涨交叉形态曾出现在2019年初(BTC在3200美元附近触底后)、2020年3月(新冠危机低点约3800美元)和2022年末(周期低点约1.55万美元)。在每种情况下,技术动能首先出现转变,而价格则表现滞后。
此外,比特币的三日图表正在形成看涨背离现象,即价格创下更低低点,但动能指标并未跟随下探。
这一形态也曾出现在2021年中期回调低点之前以及2022年FTX危机引发的底部之前,这两次都预示着随后数月的市场回暖。
这些信号共同表明,比特币市场的卖压可能在近期将被耗尽,这种状况更常见于市场底部形成阶段,而非短暂的技术性反弹。
比特币矿工投降现象表明BTC已触底
VanEck分析师Matt Sigel和Patrick Bush表示,截至12月15日的一个月内,比特币算力下降了4%,他们将此视为"一个看涨的逆向信号",这与矿工投降现象密切相关。
这些分析师指出,历史数据显示,持续的算力压缩期往往预示着比特币后续表现强劲,自2014年以来,在算力30天下降后,BTC在65%的情况下实现了正向的90天回报。
这一信号在更长时间范围内表现更为强劲,数据显示180天回报在77%的情况下为正,平均收益率达到72%。
价格上涨还有望提高矿工盈利能力,并促使此前闲置的挖矿产能重新投入运营。
比特币可能在4-6周内迎来回升,一项宏观指标显示
比特币可能正在接近底部,因为流动性条件开始改善,这一因素历来是比特币重大反转的前兆。
分析师Miad Kasravi对105个指标的回测研究表明,国家金融状况指数(NFCI)的顶点通常领先比特币反弹4至6周。
这一信号曾在2022年末和2024年中期出现,均在比特币急剧上涨前。从历史数据来看,每当NFCI下降0.10点,比特币价格就会相应上涨约15%-20%,而NFCI更低的读数则标志着比特币进入长期上涨阶段。
截至12月,NFCI指数为-0.52,并呈现继续下降趋势。
潜在的催化剂是美联储计划将抵押贷款支持证券转换为国库券,Kasravi指出,这一举措类似于2019年的"非量化宽松"流动性注入,当时该举措引发了比特币40%的涨幅。
尽管出现这些积极信号,许多市场分析师预计比特币价格可能进一步下跌,他们给出的价格目标区间在7万美元至2.5万美元之间。
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