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A new pricing model from Diana, a crypto analyst on X, projects that XRP could climb into the $7–$24 range within 60 days of the ETF launch, driven strictly by inflow pressure and the asset’s constrained liquid supply. The model reportedly relies on supply-absorption math, revealing how ETF-driven demand could shift XRP’s market pricing once XRP ETFs go live.
New XRP ETF Inflow Model Maps A Direct Route To $24
Diana’s newly released “XRP ETF Launch Impact Model” outlines a clear, data-driven view on how ETF inflows alone could reprice XRP. Her framework tests multiple launch scenarios involving five to twenty ETFs, each seeded with $10 million to $45 million. Depending on the scale, total inflows range from $50 million to $900 million, absorbing between 0.08% and 1.50% of XRP’s estimated 60-billion-unit liquid supply.
According to Diana’s projections, this level of liquidity absorption pushes XRP into a thirty-day range of $3.00 to $15.00, with the sixty-day window stretching from $3.80 up to $24.00. The top end of the model—where XRP approaches $24—emerges when twenty ETFs launch with maximum seed capital and nearly a billion dollars in early inflows. Diana argues that as issuers acquire XRP to build underlying exposure, the available float tightens, and the resulting supply squeeze forces a natural repricing cycle.
However, XRP’s real-time price action tells a different story. Despite the successful debut of the Canary XRP ETF, XRP has failed to respond positively. The latest market data shows the asset trading near $2.14, posting a 13.5% decline over the week. Even so, Diana maintains that early price weakness is typical during ETF rollout phases and believes the projected inflow dynamics still position XRP for a sharp upward revaluation once institutional allocations begin to materialize.
The Market Structure Delaying XRP’s Next Major Rally
In a separate post, Diana outlined the market pattern she believes has been driving XRP’s recent price behavior. According to her, traders typically buy ahead of an ETF launch to front-run expected demand, creating a pre-launch rally driven by speculation rather than institutional activity. Once the ETF goes live, those early buyers take profit, producing the sharp launch-day dip that often surprises retail investors.
Diana noted that institutional inflows never arrive on day one. Wealth managers move through compliance checks, committee approvals, and allocation cycles, meaning real capital enters the market weeks later. She pointed to Bitcoin’s January 2024 ETF rollout as the clearest example, where the asset fell at launch but later surged to new highs as regulated inflows matured.
She argues that XRP is showing the same early-stage pattern now: a weak market following the Canary ETF launch, profit-taking, and a temporary cooling phase. When these delayed inflows eventually begin to accumulate, Diana maintains that they will reinforce an upward pricing dynamic for XRP’s next major climb.
Key takeaways:
Ether’s 20% monthly decline has pushed it into a clear daily downtrend, retesting $3,000 for the first time since July.
The Mayer Multiple falling below 1 signals a historically strong accumulation zone, resembling past bottoming phases.
Leveraged liquidity has reset, but clusters at $2,900 and $2,760 warn of further volatility before a potential recovery.
Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), has slipped nearly 20% in November, from $3,900 to retesting the $3,000 level on Nov. 17, a price last seen on July 15. The drawdown has pushed ETH into a well-defined daily downtrend, marked by consecutive lower highs and lower lows, placing the market in a technically fragile zone despite long-term accumulation signals starting to emerge.
Mayer Multiple drops below 1: What it means for ETH
One of those signals comes from Capriole Investments’ Mayer Multiple (MM), which measures the ratio between ETH’s current price and its 200-day moving average. A reading below 1 indicates Ether is trading at a discount to its long-term trend and has historically aligned with major accumulation zones.
ETH’s Mayer Multiple dropping below 1 for the first time since mid-June now places it back into the “buy zone,” a region that has previously preceded strong multimonth recoveries.
Throughout ETH’s history, sub-1 readings have typically indicated long-term bottoms, with the main exception being January 2022, when the metric remained suppressed due to the onset of a broader bear market.
At the moment, MM levels resemble early-cycle reset conditions rather than the structural breakdown seen in 2022, positioning the current market closer to historical buy opportunities than to distribution or selling zones (usually found when MM > 2.4).
Related: Bitcoin, Ether now operate in ‘different monetary’ universes: Data
Liquidity resets, but deeper clusters remain
Despite the macro accumulation setup, short-term price action remains vulnerable. Data from Hyblock Capital shows that even after sweeping the key $3,000 psychological zone, ETH still sits above several dense long-liquidation clusters.
“We’ve swept quite a few large (bright) long liq clusters. The next two below on ETH are $2,904 to $2,916 and $2,760 to $2,772,” Hyblock noted, implying the market may require a deeper liquidity flush before forming a durable base.
Adding to this, analytics platform Altcoin Vector highlighted that Ether’s overall liquidity structure has “fully reset,” a condition historically present before every major bottom. According to the platform, liquidity collapses tend to precede multi-week bottoming phases rather than immediate structural breakdowns.
Altcoin Vector added that the correction window remains open as long as liquidity rebuilds: if replenishment occurs in the coming weeks, ETH could enter its next expansion phase. However, the longer liquidity takes to return, the more prolonged the grind becomes, and the more structurally exposed ETH becomes to more downside.
Related: ETH falls to 4-month low under $3K: Is the bull market over?
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Bitcoin's recent correction appears to have run its course, according to Standard Chartered’s head of digital assets research Geoffrey Kendrick, who says the decline resembles earlier drawdowns of nearly identical magnitude over the past two years.
In a Tuesday note, Kendrick said the latest drop — though faster and more painful — matches the third major sell-off in the current cycle, pointing to chart patterns showing similar percentage pullbacks.
"It is a simple argument, but the best ones often are," he wrote.
Bitcoin price chart
Kendrick added that several market indicators have reset to extreme levels. One example is MicroStrategy’s net asset value multiple, or mNAV — a metric comparing the company's market cap with the marked-to-market value of its bitcoin holdings — which had fallen back to 1.0. He said these "absolute zero" readings suggest the market has hit a bottom.
"I think this is enough to signify the sell-off is over and to eventually disprove those who think the halving cycle remains valid," Kendrick wrote. "A rally into year-end is my base case."
Earlier this month, Kendrick reiterated his view that bitcoin’s drop below $100,000 may be the "LAST ONE EVER." But bitcoin still fell from above $105,000 to below $90,000 last week, erasing all of its year-to-date gains. It has since recovered slightly and is trading around $93,500, according to The Block’s bitcoin price page.
Bitcoin briefly touched about $89,420 earlier today — its lowest since February. Nansen research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard said market depth has fallen about 30% since the Oct. 10 record liquidation event, making prices highly sensitive to even modest selling. He added that while a dip toward the mid-$80,000s is possible based on options data, current levels or a rebound appear more likely.
"When liquidity is this thin, it takes far less capital to push the market in either direction, and when you layer leverage on top, volatility becomes inevitable," Sondergaard said.
Earlier today, analysts told The Block that bitcoin must reclaim the $95,000–$100,000 level to avoid further structural weakening as onchain stress and ETF outflows have intensified.
Kendrick had previously projected that bitcoin would reach $200,000 by year-end. When asked today whether he still holds that target, Kendrick declined to comment. His longer-term forecast, made earlier this year, sees bitcoin reaching $500,000 by 2028 on the back of growing investor access and declining volatility.
Disclaimer: The Block is an independent media outlet that delivers news, research, and data. As of November 2023, Foresight Ventures is a majority investor of The Block. Foresight Ventures invests in other companies in the crypto space. Crypto exchange Bitget is an anchor LP for Foresight Ventures. The Block continues to operate independently to deliver objective, impactful, and timely information about the crypto industry. Here are our current financial disclosures.
© 2025 The Block. All Rights Reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
A merger designed to form a Hyperliquid digital asset treasury (DAT) with aspirations of raising $1 billion will take at least another two weeks to complete.
"Annoyingly we have to delay the shareholder vote for two weeks," Hyperliquid Strategies David Schamis posted to X on Tuesday. "In order to close we need [over 50%] of the outstanding shares to vote in favor of the deal."
The plan to create Hyperliquid Strategies, a DAT focused on accumulating and holding HYPE tokens, was first announced in July when Nasdaq-listed Sonnet BioTherapeutics, Inc. said it had agreed to merge with Rorschach I LLC to create the new crypto treasury firm.
Rorschach is a recently formed company created by an entity affiliated with Atlas Merchant Capital LLC, which in turn is an affiliate of Paradigm Operations LP, a major crypto VC and Hyperliquid backer. Hyperliquid is a popular decentralized perpetual exchange.
Including existing HYPE tokens already held by participants investing in the new DAT, and $305 million in cash, the deal was valued at $888 million when first announced.
Then last month, Hyperliquid Strategies told the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission it hoped to raise up to $1 billion by selling shares.
Although voting on the merger has been delayed, Schamis appeared confident that those Sonnet shareholders who have yet to vote will eventually favor the deal. "While over 95% of the votes that have been received to date have voted in favor we are still lacking the requisite total number of votes to get to the finish line," Schamis said. "We are confident that we will be able to achieve this by the December 2 date that we have set."
Schamis urged Sonnet shareholders to vote as soon as possible.
By most accounts, the DAT boom subsided weeks ago as the number of newly announced treasury companies fell. Simultaneously, DATs' market caps have cumulatively been taking a hit as the wider cryptocurrency market slumps. Many treasury firms have begun launching stock repurchase programs.
Disclaimer: The Block is an independent media outlet that delivers news, research, and data. As of November 2023, Foresight Ventures is a majority investor of The Block. Foresight Ventures invests in other companies in the crypto space. Crypto exchange Bitget is an anchor LP for Foresight Ventures. The Block continues to operate independently to deliver objective, impactful, and timely information about the crypto industry. Here are our current financial disclosures.
© 2025 The Block. All Rights Reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
The CGN airdrop for Binance Wallet users may lead to strong market action. When people receive free tokens, they may choose to sell them, which could make prices go down for a short time. At the same time, news about the airdrop can bring new attention to CGN and assets in the CygnusFi group, creating possible buying pressure. The final impact depends on the number of tokens dropped and post-airdrop demand. This event is important for short-term traders. Read the update here.
Cygnus@CygnusFiNov 18, 2025CGN Airdrop Update for Binance Wallet Users
We sincerely appreciate the support from all @BinanceWallet users. The airdrop to Binance Wallet users will be completed within the next 3 days, and will be distributed on the @base network.
️ Important Notice:
At this time, CGN…
APEPE being listed on Gopax, a Korean exchange, could cause a price move. New exchange listings often bring more attention and make the token easier to buy for new people. This can create extra demand, especially if interest from local traders is high. However, if trading volume on Gopax is low or if many tokens are sold quickly, price gains could be limited. Watch early trading results and possible news in the Korean crypto space for price signals. This event could be a short-term catalyst for APEPE's price. See the announcement here.
Crypto Sustainable Token (CST) gets listed on XT.COM, a known exchange. This will make CST available to more buyers. Often, new exchange listings cause a price increase because more people can buy and trade easily. The listing in the Innovation Zone can also attract users interested in new projects. However, prices may quickly change as early holders may choose to sell. The true price impact will depend on community interest and trading volume after listing. You can see the official listing news here.
XT Exchange #XTurns7@XTexchangeNov 18, 2025New Listing #XTListing @CSTCHESTER2022
#XT will list $CST (Crypto Sustainable Token) in the Innovation Zone (Web 3.0).
Deposit Time: 10:00 on November 18, 2025 (UTC)
Trading Time: 10:00 on November 19, 2025 (UTC)
Withdrawal Time: 10:00 on November 20, 2025… pic.twitter.com/vZoEWR56ED
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