Iran moves to accept crypto payments in weapon sales to evade sanctions: FT

Prediction market traders on Polymarket are tipping 21% odds of Bitcoin hitting $150,000 this year, despite man analysts seeing 2026 as a belated bull year for Bitcoin. 

According to the current market on “what price will Bitcoin hit before 2027?,” Polymarket shows 45% odds of Bitcoin reaching $120,000, a price point below its all-time high.

The odds fall further at $130,000, with just a 35% probability, while $140,000 has a 28% chance and $150,000 has a 21% chance. 

The safest bet traders are currently willing to place on overall is a mere $100,000 at 80%. 

Crypto mining and trading is now legal in Turkmenistan after a new law signed by President Serdar Berdimuhamedow in late November took effect on Thursday. 

Implementation of the new laws could see the Central Asian country’s economy expand beyond its heavy reliance on natural gas exports by tapping surplus energy for crypto mining, following the lead of neighboring country Kazakhstan.

Turkmenistan is considered to be one of the more closed-off countries in the world, but has taken several steps to open up its economy in recent years, including to the tourism and energy sectors.

That now extends to the entire crypto industry, with non-Turkmenistan residents also permitted to mine crypto in the country once registered, according to the law. 

Crypto mining pools are also permitted.

Turkmenistan-based crypto exchanges will need to secure licenses, set up Know-Your-Client and Anti-Money Laundering checks and satisfy certain cold storage requirements, the law states.

The new laws also made it clear that crypto still isn’t recognized as legal tender, currency or as a security in Turkmenistan.

Crypto adoption is steadily rising in Central Asia

Turkmenistan’s neighbor, Kazakhstan, became a Bitcoin mining heavyweight in 2021 after China’s ban pushed a significant number of crypto miners to relocate there, while Pakistan, one of Turkmenistan’s closest allies, made some of the most significant strides in crypto regulation in 2025.

Among Pakistan’s biggest accomplishments include establishing the Pakistan Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority, permitting crypto exchanges Binance and HTX to operate in the country, building a Bitcoin reserve, and appointing former Binance CEO Changpeng ‘CZ’ Zhao as a strategic adviser.

However, the speed of adoption may be slower in Turkmenistan, given the government’s tight controls on internet access, strict oversight of financial activities and the limited foreign investment it receives.

Head of research at on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant has explained how demand makes the basis of a Bitcoin cycle, rather than price performance.

Bitcoin Apparent Demand Has Been Declining Recently

In a new post on X, CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno has talked about Bitcoin cycles from a different lens. “Most are focusing on price performance to define a cycle, when it is demand what they should be looking to,” noted Moreno.

The analyst has gauged the “demand” for the cryptocurrency using the Apparent Demand indicator, which compares the daily miner issuance against the changes in the 1-year dormant supply.

The first of these, the miner issuance, is the amount that miners are “minting” on the network every day by receiving block rewards. This metric essentially reflects the “production” of the asset. The 1-year inactive supply, on the other hand, can be thought of as the cryptocurrency’s “inventory.”

Thus, the Apparent Demand basically compares the production of Bitcoin against changes taking place in its inventory. Below is the chart shared by Moreno that shows the trends in the 30-day and 1-year versions of the Apparent Demand over the past decade.

As is visible in the graph, the last few Bitcoin cycles have all transitioned into a bear market when the Apparent Demand has plunged into the negative region on both the monthly and yearly timeframes.

In the current cycle, the 30-day Apparent Demand has plunged into the red zone recently, suggesting that the monthly demand for the asset has been negative.

On the annual scale, the metric is still at a positive level, but its value has been following a downtrend. If this decline keeps up, it won’t be long before the indicator has dipped into the negative territory.

Considering the pattern from the previous cycles, the current structure in the Apparent Demand is certainly looking bearish. It only remains to be seen, though, whether the yearly version of the metric will cross into the red zone or if it will rebound, signaling the return of demand.

Spot demand isn’t the only way to measure Bitcoin demand these days. With the advent of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), there has been some fresh off-chain demand coming into the cryptocurrency this cycle.

As on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has talked about in an X post, the 30-day netflow related to the US BTC spot ETFs has remained in the negative zone recently, indicating demand has been muted in this side of the market as well.

BTC Price

Bitcoin has taken to consolidation recently as its price is still floating around the $88,000 level.

Dogecoin (DOGE) is back in focus as long-term chart structures continue to signal sustained bullish potential. While recent monthly price action has remained muted, a crypto analyst maintains that the meme coin’s broader technical trend has not been compromised. The analyst has projected that DOGE could eventually rally toward a long-term move beyond the $10 level. 

Dogecoin Bullish Structure Points Toward $10

On December 31, crypto market expert Olivier D Maximus posted on X that Dogecoin remains structurally bullish and could eventually cross $10. He noted that although price action has been slow and unimpressive, DOGE’s bullish framework continues to favor higher valuations in the long term. 

He shared a new detailed chart analysis, indicating that DOGE’s monthly close generated little short-term excitement. However, he emphasized that the broader bullish framework remains intact, with attention now turning to what January may bring as the next decisive phase. 

Maximus pointed out that long-term structures often move quietly before big gains, and Dogecoin appears to be following this pattern. He stressed that patience is required when analyzing higher time frames, as monthly charts tend to capture macro trends rather than immediate volatility. In his view, the current consolidation does not invalidate Dogecoin’s upside thesis. 

The analyst’s chart showed Dogecoin trading within a clearly defined Ascending Channel that has held for several years. The meme coin’s price remains above the long-term rising support zone, reflecting higher lows over time. Additionally, multiple diagonal trend lines show that DOGE’s price has repeatedly corrected toward mid-channel support before resuming upward movement. These pullbacks appear controlled, reinforcing the possibility of a healthy long-term uptrend. 

Maximus has also spotlighted several ATH levels he expects Dogecoin to reach over time. The ascending channel seen on the chart points toward potential targets above $12, extending as high as $25. Moreover, the analyst has suggested that if Dogecoin maintains its structural integrity, future trends could push the meme coin into double-digit territory, making a surge from under $1 to $10 technically plausible.

DOGE Enters Make Or Break Zone In 2026

In a separate X post, crypto analyst Trader Tardigrade revealed that the Dogecoin price is currently trading within a Descending Triangle, with the price sitting at the tip of the pattern around $0.122. This level has been highlighted as a potential make-or-break point where a pullback or surge could determine Dogecoin’s next big move. 

If price breaks above the upper boundary of the Descending Triangle, Trader Tardigrade predicts that Dogecoin could experience a breakout to the upside. He has set a target of around $0.132, representing a surge of approximately 8.2% from the current price level. On the other hand, if DOGE breaks below the lower boundary of the triangle, the meme coin could tumble further toward $0.116, representing a roughly 4.9% crash. 

Bitcoin started 2026 stuck near $88,000, extending weeks of sideways trading. While price action looks stagnant, on-chain data suggests the market may be quietly shifting beneath the surface.

Three indicators from CryptoQuant point to easing sell pressure, even as macro uncertainty continues to cap upside momentum.

Long-Term Holders Show Signs of Accumulation

Bitcoin’s price has struggled to reclaim key resistance after a sharp pullback in late 2025. The lack of follow-through buying has kept sentiment fragile, with traders waiting for confirmation that the correction has run its course.

The first signal comes from long-term holder (LTH) supply data. After months of negative readings, the 30-day net change in LTH supply has turned positive by roughly 10,700 BTC.

This shift suggests that long-term investors are no longer distributing coins at scale. 

Instead, supply is gradually moving back into stronger hands, a pattern often seen during consolidation phases rather than market tops.

LTH SOPR Signals Balance, not Capitulation

A second chart tracks the long-term holder spent output profit ratio (SOPR). This metric shows whether long-term holders are selling at a profit or a loss.

Currently, LTH SOPR is hovering around the neutral 1.0 level. That indicates long-term holders are not capitulating or rushing to exit at losses. 

Historically, this behavior aligns with markets finding equilibrium after a correction, rather than entering a deeper breakdown.

Exchange outflows reduce immediate sell pressure

The third indicator looks at Bitcoin exchange netflows. Recent data shows continued net outflows, with more BTC leaving exchanges than entering them.

This trend reduces immediate sell-side supply on spot markets. 

However, the lack of a price rebound suggests demand remains cautious, likely constrained by tighter liquidity and delayed expectations for US rate cuts.

Will Bitcoin Price Recover in January?

Taken together, the charts paint a mixed but improving picture. Supply-side pressure appears to be easing, and long-term holders remain confident. 

Still, price remains range-bound due to weak demand and macro headwinds. A rapid move to $100,000 in January would likely require a fresh catalyst. 

Without it, Bitcoin may continue consolidating, building a base that could support a stronger recovery later in 2026 rather than an immediate breakout.

Bitcoin’s recent inability to escape a tight trading range may have less to do with spot Bitcoin ETF flows than many headlines suggest, and more to do with the derivatives complex still doing most of the heavy lifting, even as futures activity cools.

That’s the core argument from CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc), who said Bitcoin futures volumes have been “cut in half since November 22,” dropping from $123 billion in daily volume to $63 billion.

Futures, Not ETFs, Are Holding Bitcoin In Place

The slowdown, he added, “partly explains the low volatility observed on BTC in recent weeks.” But the bigger point is relative scale: at $63 billion per day, futures still represent “nearly 20 times the volume of spot Bitcoin ETFs ($3.4B) and about 10 times spot market volumes ($6B),” according to the analyst.

In other words, even if ETF outflows are real and visible, they may not be the dominant marginal force setting the tone. “Many continue to point to ETFs, which have experienced significant outflows in recent weeks,” Darkfost wrote. “While these outflows do contribute to selling pressure, futures markets clearly remain the dominant force in overall volumes.”

Darkfost pointed to net taker volume, a derivatives metric used to infer whether aggressive buying or selling is dominating, as a cleaner read on why price has struggled to trend. He framed it in conditional terms based on prior market behavior: “Each time net taker volume has turned negative, Bitcoin has entered a corrective phase. When this indicator moves into negative territory, selling volume dominates.”

In his telling, the market has been living with that bias for months. Since July, net taker volume has “generally remained negative,” he said, with one notable interruption: “A noticeable slowdown occurred in early October, allowing Bitcoin to set a new all time high, but selling pressure quickly regained control. Today, selling volumes continue to dominate and have kept Bitcoin trapped in a range for about a month.”

There is, however, a tentative improvement in the same dataset. Darkfost said futures-driven selling pressure has declined since early November, with net taker volume improving from around -$489 million to -$93 million. He described that as “a positive signal,” but not yet enough to change the regime. “Liquidity remains weak,” he wrote, adding that ETF and spot volumes are “still too limited to allow BTC to break out of its current consolidation phase.”

Demand Is Key

In a separate X post, CryptoQuant’s Head of Research Julio Moreno added a broader framing that shifts attention away from chart-based cycle narratives and toward demand dynamics. “Most are focusing on price performance to define a cycle, when it is demand what they should be looking to,” Moreno wrote. “Bitcoin demand is contracting on monthly terms and slowing down significantly on an annual basis (and about to get into negative territory).”

Alongside the futures-driven explanation for Bitcoin’s stall, the selling pressure from long-term holders (LTHs) emerged in recent weeks as the main driver for Bitcoin lagging performance against the stock market and gold. As reported yesterday, the long-term holder selling appeared to have stopped, according to multiple on-chain commentators, with around 10,700 BTC transitioning into long term held coins.

In his latest post, leading Glassnode analyst CryptoVizArt argued the change is more about tempo than direction. “LTHs didn’t stop selling,” the analyst wrote, claiming LTHs “are still spending ~7.3k BTC/day (7D SMA) and still realizing <$200M/day in profit. What changed is the rate, not the behavior. This is a cooldown after months of heavy distribution, not a flip to pure accumulation.”

Darkfost didn’t dispute that LTHs can be persistent sellers, but he emphasized a different lens. “LTHs never really stop selling in reality, but when we look at supply change, it gives a different picture,” he wrote. “It appears that their distribution has come to an end for now, meaning the amount of BTC maturing and transitioning into LTH status equals the BTC being sold by LTHs (STH buying).”

At press time, BTC traded at $87,972.