How Low Can Bitcoin Price Go? Analysts Point to Two Key Levels

By Steve Goldstein

Bitcoin is usually, but not always, a buy when it enters ab

Historically, bitcoin entering a bear market has been great buying opportunity. But not always.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) was trading under $100,000 on Friday morning, well below its early October peak.

MarketWatch looked at data since 2014 when bitcoin fell at least 20% from highs.

   Peak Date   Peak Price   Bear Entry  Entry Price  Decline (%)  6M Return  12M Return 
   2014-09-17  $457.33      2014-10-03  $359.51      -21.39%      -31.22%    -33.60% 
   2015-12-15  $465.32      2016-01-15  $364.33      -21.70%      79.64%     124.63% 
   2016-06-16  $766.31      2016-06-22  $596.12      -22.21%      32.98%     353.84% 
   2017-01-04  $1,154.73    2017-01-06  $902.20      -21.87%      188.40%    1842.69% 
   2017-03-03  $1,274.99    2017-03-18  $973.82      -23.62%      223.98%    744.48% 
   2017-06-11  $2,958.11    2017-07-11  $2,337.79    -20.97%      604.84%    173.54% 
   2017-09-01  $4,892.01    2017-09-13  $3,882.59    -20.63%      137.09%    67.86% 
   2017-11-08  $7,459.69    2017-11-12  $5,950.07    -20.24%      41.87%     7.08% 
   2017-12-16  $19,497.40   2017-12-22  $13,831.80   -29.06%      -51.01%    -70.98% 
   2021-01-08  $40,797.61   2021-01-21  $30,825.70   -24.44%      -3.30%     18.27% 
   2021-02-21  $57,539.95   2021-02-28  $45,137.77   -21.55%      8.69%      -4.31% 
   2021-04-13  $63,503.46   2021-04-24  $50,050.87   -21.18%      24.29%     -21.14% 
   2021-11-08  $67,566.83   2021-11-26  $53,569.77   -20.72%      -44.82%    -69.27% 
   2024-03-13  $73,083.50   2024-05-01  $58,254.01   -20.29%      20.01%     65.64% 
   2025-01-21  $106,146.27  2025-02-26  $84,347.02   -20.54%      30.56%     N/A 
   2025-10-06  $124,752.53  2025-11-13  $99,697.49   -20.08%      N/A        N/A 

The median gain six months later has been 31% and the median gain 12 months later is 42%. But there also have been situations where even a year later, bitcoin is still down by some 70%.

Bitcoin of course has no fundamental value, even with aggressive retail and increasingly institutional adoption.

The storied hedge fund D.E. Shaw says bitcoin could be a non-productive store of value, but unlike gold, it tends to move with other financial assets rather than against them.

-Steve Goldstein

This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

1042 GMT - A new wave of risk aversion and downturn in tech stocks have prompted previously reliable sources of support for bitcoin to flee the cryptocurrency, Tickmill Group's Patrick Munnelly says in a note. Major investment funds, exchange traded fund investors, and corporate treasuries have retreated from bitcoin, taking away a "crucial support pillar for this year's rally and initiating a fresh period of market vulnerability." Remarks from Federal Reserve officials that sounded cautious about further interest-rate cuts have dented risk appetite. Uncertainty over a coming deluge of delayed U.S. official data after the reopening of the government also weighs on sentiment. Bitcoin falls 1.9% to $96,919 after earlier hitting a six-month low of $96,025, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

1039 GMT - The Chinese economy is likely to remain weak in the coming quarters, Capital Economics says in a note, adding that they expect the decline in investment spending to partially reverse soon. The deeper concern is output-side measures of activity, economists Zichun Huang and Julian Evans-Pritchard write, noting while it held up well in the last quarter, it slowed considerably in October. Capital Economics' labor market indicator signals improvement in the market, while the prolonged property downturn is expected to continue to weigh on activity. The economy also faces a tougher external environment, CE economists say, with the recent U.S.-China trade deal unlikely to provide much relief. With low interest rates already and a large budget deficit, the scope and appetite for substantial policy support appears limited, the economists say. (jason.chau@wsj.com)

1033 GMT - Reports indicating that the U.K. government plans to drop the anticipated income tax rises at the Nov 26 budget undermine the credibility of the Treasury Chief Rachel Reeves, Rabobank analysts say in a note. The U-turn shows that the government is more fearful of political unease than it is about upsetting gilt investors, Rabobank says. "In the absence of any reassurance from the Chancellor regarding gilt supply, sterling is set to remain nervous." Sterling weakens to a 2.5-year low against the euro. Ten-year gilt yields are up around 8 basis points to 4.515%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

1012 GMT - RHB revises up its forecast for Malaysia's 2025 GDP growth to 4.7% from 4.2%, citing stronger mining output, firm manufacturing activity and upside from net exports. 4Q GDP is expected to expand 4.6% on resilient domestic demand and easing tariff risks, senior economist Chin Yee Sian says in a note. For 2026, she maintains her 4.7% growth projection, supported by stronger domestic demand, the expansionary fiscal stance from Budget 2026 and an improving external backdrop as tariff uncertainties recede. Chin expects Bank Negara to keep its policy rate at 2.75% through 2026, while remaining data-dependent. A 25bp cut is possible if tariff risks escalate and growth slips below the government's expected target range of 4.0%-4.5%, RHB adds. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

1007 GMT - The 10-year Treasury yield has been moving sideways just above the 4% mark for a good two months now and a clear directional move isn't expected for the time being, LBBW's Elmar Voelker says in a note. Bond bull's attempts to sustainably break through this psychologically important yield support have not yet been successful, and the same applies to attempts of the benchmark yield to break out upwards, which recently stopped at around 4.15%, the senior fixed income analyst says. "As a result, the medium-term downward trend in yields, starting from the high for 2025, has so far remained intact," he says. The 10-year Treasury yield rises 1.6 basis points to 4.126%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

1004 GMT - A Financial Times report that the Labour government has dropped plans to raise income taxes has prompted concerns that U.K. treasury chief Rachel Reeves won't take the bold decisions needed to repair the public finances, AJ Bell's Dan Coatsworth says in a note. "Bond markets should, in theory, want the government to take bold decisions rather than tinkering at the edges," he says. "For a while it looked as if this might happen, but the latest reports about a policy rethink would suggest otherwise." U.K. gilt yields rise while sterling falls on the report. Ten-year gilt yields earlier touched a one-month high of 4.571%, Tradeweb data show. (jessica.fleetham@wsj.com)

1004 GMT - The Czech koruna has limited potential to rise further in the near-term after hitting a two-year high against the euro overnight, ING's Chris Turner says in a note. The euro's recent recovery against the dollar has boosted the koruna as it tracks the exchange rate. Thursday's strong Czech current account data and rate differentials have also favored koruna strength. "We still believe in gradual koruna appreciation looking ahead," Turner says. In the short term, however, it the euro versus the koruna has likely fully exploited the potential of higher rates and its fair value is currently around 24.200-24.2250 koruna, he says. The euro rises 0.2% to 24.186 koruna after hitting a low of 24.140 overnight, LSEG data show.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)

1002 GMT - The U.K. government could increase business taxes instead of individual taxes at the November 26 budget, Caxton's David Stritch says in a note. This follows reports on the Financial Times that Treasury Chief Rachel Reeves no longer plans to raise income tax. "The upcoming increase in the tax burden may now shift to businesses rather than individuals, likely making the unemployment situation worse and growth even weaker," Stritch says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0934 GMT - December's Federal Reserve policy meeting presents a tough challenge for policymakers with official data lacking due to the recent government shutdown, says FP Markets' Aaron Hill in a note. "It is also no secret that the Fed remains divided and cautious," the chief market analyst says. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said that she was entering December's meeting with "an open mind," while Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari is also on the fence, Hill says. Despite some Fed officials still backing cuts, "a meaningful hawkish repricing has occurred" whereby investors are uncertain if rates will be cut, Hill says. Money markets pricing showing a roughly equal chance of a rate cut versus unchanged rates, according to LSEG data. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0911 GMT - China is likely to roll out more policy support in the near term, according to Citi analysts in a research note. China's economic indicators softened across supply and demand in October, the analysts point out. A later than usual Mid-Autumn Festival that fell in October this year and fading effect from trade-in subsidies likely explain much of the slowdown in PMIs, exports, retail sales and industrial production, they say. The window for more incremental policies could be gradually opening, the analysts say. More property support could come after a key policy meeting in December, Citi says. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)

0851 GMT - Malaysia's economic growth is expected remain steady, with UOB maintaining its 4.6% forecast for 2025, economists Julia Goh and Loke Siew Ting say in a note. They expect external uncertainties, including U.S. sector-specific tariffs, to persist, though upside risks may emerge from cash aid, gradual subsidy reforms and improving sentiment following the U.S.-Malaysia trade pact. For 2026, UOB projects growth at 4.5%, supported by fiscal measures, civil-service pay hikes, cash handouts and tourism catalysts tied to government campaigns and major global events. With inflation contained and financial conditions stable, BNM is expected to keep its policy stance unchanged over the next year, UOB adds. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

0849 GMT - Sterling's negative reaction to a Financial Times report that the U.K. government will drop plans to raise income taxes indicates credibility concerns over the November 26 budget, MUFG Bank's Lee Hardman says in a note. The decision could be viewed as the government prioritizing its "popularity with the public and the stability of the Labour party over doing what is best to restore confidence in the public finances." The government is still likely to deliver fiscal tightening measures that dampen economic growth and create more room for the Bank of England to cut interest rates, he says. Sterling falls 0.5% to $1.3126 and hits a two-and-a-half-year low against the euro of 0.8865 per euro, LSEG data show. Gilt yields also rise sharply. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

Cathie Wood’s investment company ARK Invest is back to buying shares of USDC issuer Circle as the stock sinks below $90.

ARK bought a total of 542,269 Circle (CRCL) shares over the past two trading days, investing around $46 million, according to the firm’s daily trading disclosures seen by Cointelegraph.

The two acquisitions — a $30.4 million purchase on Wednesday and a $15.5 million buy on Thursday — came amid a decline in CRCL shares, which closed at $86 and $82.30, respectively.

The fresh purchases mark ARK’s first CRCL transactions since the firm offloaded roughly 1.7 million Circle shares across four sales in June at an average closing price of $200, generating $352 million.

Circle shares: From nearly $300 to $82

Circle shares debuted on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on June 5, opening at $69 and closing $83.2 on the first day of trading, according to NYSE data.

The stock quickly surged to an all-time high of nearly $299 by June 23, but soon faced a sharp sell-off, falling below $200 in July. After losing $100 support on Nov. 11, Circle shares continued dipping further, briefly dropping to $81.40.

From its 2025 peak, Stellar has fallen from $0.52 to $0.26. Grayscale — one of the leading crypto investment funds — has notably managed its XLM holdings during this downturn.

Extreme market fear at the end of the year continues to fuel negative expectations. What does Stellar have to face these headwinds?

Grayscale Holds More Than 116 Million XLM

According to the latest data from Coinglass, Grayscale’s XLM holdings increased from last year, before XLM printed a “god candle” in November 2024 with nearly 600% growth.

Grayscale successfully accumulated XLM from 70 million to 119 million ahead of the rally. This move highlights the fund’s effectiveness as a smart-money participant that positioned itself before major market swings.

However, since early 2025, the fund has stopped accumulating. XLM’s price has stopped setting new highs and entered a downward trend. Compared to the 2025 peak, Grayscale’s XLM holdings slightly decreased to 116.8 million.

The fund’s refusal to sell aggressively reflects its investors’ long-term perspective. They appear to view XLM as a valuable asset in the cross-border payments sector.

More notably, shares of Grayscale Stellar Lumens Trust (GXLM) trade at a premium over its actual Net Asset Value (NAV).

GXLM’s market value sits at $24.85, while its NAV per share is $22.29.

The market price is about 10–15% higher than NAV. This premium indicates that investors are willing to pay above the underlying asset value. This condition has dominated most of the trading sessions in 2025.

However, when comparing Grayscale’s XLM holdings to the more than 32 billion XLM circulating supply, the fund only controls about 0.36% of the supply. This share remains too small to create any decisive impact on the market.

What Does Stellar Have to Counter Selling Pressure?

November 2025 marked a pivotal moment when seven major crypto players — Fireblocks, Solana Foundation, TON Foundation, Polygon Labs, Stellar Development Foundation, Mysten Labs, and Monad Foundation — officially launched the Blockchain Payments Consortium (BPC).

This alliance aims to promote blockchain-based payment standards. BPC focuses on cross-chain integration, enabling XLM to reach millions of users across other ecosystems. These developments could boost demand in 2026.

In parallel, the Stellar ecosystem continues to see explosive growth in Real-World Assets (RWA). Total RWA value on the network reached a record $654 million in November 2025, up from $300 million at the beginning of the year.

Charts from RWA.xyz show significant contributions from tokenized funds, including Franklin OnChain US Government Fund and WisdomTree Prime.

However, real adoption stories do not always align with market sentiment. Recent analysis indicates that XLM has historically performed poorly in November. With altcoins drowning in extreme fear, XLM may struggle to escape the broader negative trend.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation is considering guidance for tokenized deposit insurance. The agency also plans to introduce an application process for stablecoins by the end of this year.

Digital assets meet tradfi in London at the fmls25

Stablecoins’ market capitalization reached $193 billion by 1 December last year, with transaction volumes of $27.1 trillion by November, nearly triple the previous year.

Analysts project the sector could reach $3 trillion within five years. Excluding stablecoins, tokenized real-world assets rose over 60% to $13.5 billion, mainly in private credit and U.S. Treasurys.

Regulator Signals Rules for Tokenized Deposits

Acting FDIC Chair Travis Hill said at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s Fintech Conference that guidance on tokenized deposit insurance will eventually be released.

“My view for a long time has been that a deposit is a deposit. Moving a deposit from a traditional-finance world to a blockchain or distributed-ledger world shouldn’t change the legal nature of it,” Hill said, according to Bloomberg.

Regulator Sets Capital, Risk Standards

The FDIC insures deposits at regulated banks. Hill said the agency is developing a framework for stablecoin issuance under the GENIUS Act. The regulator is working on standards for capital, reserves, and risk management. As of Friday, the stablecoin market capitalization was about $305 billion. In 2024, BlackRock launched a tokenized money market fund called BUIDL.

UK Consultation Targets Systemic Stablecoin Risk

Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, the Bank of England has opened a consultation on regulating sterling-denominated stablecoins. The framework targets tokens widely used for payments that could pose risks to financial stability.

Proposed rules would require issuers to back part of their liabilities with BoE deposits and the remainder with short-term UK government debt. Limits on holdings would apply: £20,000 per coin for individuals and up to £10 million for businesses, with some exemptions. HM Treasury will designate systemically important providers, subject to BoE supervision.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has introduced one of its most sweeping regulatory overhauls in years, and crypto developers say it amounts to a de facto ban on self-custody.

This new shift raises urgent concerns for Dubai’s standing as one of the world’s top crypto hubs.

UAE Rewrites the Rules for Crypto Access

A newly enacted Central Bank law, effective September 16, dramatically expands licensing requirements. Specifically, it renders it a potential criminal offense to offer even basic cryptocurrency tools, such as Bitcoin wallets or blockchain explorers, to UAE residents without authorization.

The Federal-Decree Law No. 6 of 2025, published in the UAE’s Official Gazette, replaces the 2018 banking law and introduces a far more aggressive regulatory perimeter.

While previous rules required licensing for entities offering regulated financial activities, they did not impose criminal penalties for non-compliance.

According to legal analysis from Gibson Dunn, Article 170 now criminalizes all unlicensed financial activity. Penalties range from imprisonment to fines between AED 50,000 and AED 500 million (up to $136 million).

What stands out is that these penalties apply to companies offering financial products, and also to anyone facilitating them through technology.

Self-Custody Tools Now Fall Under the Licensing Net

This is where the crypto industry sees the biggest shock.

Developer Mikko Ohtamaa warned that the law “makes it a crime” to offer self-custodial Bitcoin wallets, blockchain explorers, or even market-data tools like CoinMarketCap without a license from the Central Bank.

The relevant provision, Article 62, expands the Central Bank’s authority to cover any technology that “engages in, offers, issues, or facilitates” a financial activity, directly or indirectly.

That includes infrastructure providers, API services, wallet developers, analytics platforms, and decentralized protocols.

In practice, this means that even companies outside the UAE, if their product is accessible to UAE residents, may be considered in violation.

A New Crackdown on Communications and Marketing

Another major shift arises from Article 61, which defines advertising, marketing, or promoting a licensable financial activity as a regulated activity.

That means simply sending an email newsletter, hosting a website, or even publishing a tweet about an unlicensed financial product accessible in the UAE could be treated as a legal breach.

Gibson Dunn notes that this provision “materially broadens” the UAE’s regulatory perimeter, capturing communications originating from abroad. For global crypto companies, this represents a significant compliance risk.

What It Means for Dubai’s Crypto Ambitions

The UAE has spent the past several years branding itself as a global destination for blockchain innovation. It established friendly licensing frameworks through financial free zones, such as VARA in Dubai and ADGM in Abu Dhabi.

However, because federal law supersedes free-zone rules, the new Central Bank law applies everywhere, even within Dubai’s crypto-friendly jurisdictions.

Nonetheless, the latest turn is consistent with the UAE’s broader history of tight digital restrictions, noting that even WhatsApp calls remain blocked nationwide.

The concern now is whether developers, exchanges, and wallet providers will withdraw services from UAE users to avoid compliance risk. Notably, this pattern is observed in jurisdictions under pressure from the FATF to restrict self-custody.

Entities have one year from the law’s effective date to meet licensing requirements, though this period may be extended at the Central Bank’s discretion.

Over the coming months, the UAE will release additional regulations that define how these rules are applied in practice.