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On-chain data shows the XRP whales have distributed a significant amount during the past week, a sign of negative sentiment among large holders.

XRP Whales Have Shed 510 Million Tokens From Their Holdings

As announced by analyst Ali Martinez in a new post on X, XRP whales have participated in a notable amount of selling recently. A “whale” is typically defined as an XRP investor holding between 1 million and 10 million tokens. At the current exchange rate of the cryptocurrency, this range converts to $2 million at the lower end and $20 million at the upper one.

Given the size of the range, the only investors who would qualify for the cohort would be the big-money hands. These holders can carry some influence in the market, making the group a key one for the network.

Now, here is the chart from on-chain analytics firm Santiment shared by Martinez that shows how the supply of the XRP whales has changed over the last few months:

As displayed in the above graph, the XRP whale supply has been following a downtrend since mid-November, indicating that the large holders have been distributing. The trend has continued during the past week, with entities belonging to the group collectively selling 510 million coins, worth more than $2 billion at the latest price.

At the same time as the selloff over the last few weeks, XRP has witnessed some net bearish price action, implying that the whales may have had a role to play in it.

Given that these humongous entities haven’t shown any signs of slowing down recently, it’s possible that the coin could see a further drop. It only remains to be seen, however, how whale behavior will develop in the coming days.

In some other news, XRP could be set up for a 16% move according to a technical analysis (TA) pattern, as Martinez has pointed out in another X post.

From the chart, it’s visible that XRP has roughly been traveling inside a Symmetrical Triangle on the 1-hour timeframe since November. A Symmetrical Triangle is a consolidation channel that involves two converging trendlines approaching each other at an equal and opposite slope.

The coin is already more than halfway through the channel, meaning that its range is getting narrow. A narrower range means retests of the support and resistance levels become more frequent, making either more probable.

Based on the height of the channel, the analyst has noted that a breakout could lead to a 16% move for XRP. It now remains to be seen which direction the asset will exit, and whether the pattern will hold.

XRP Price

XRP has again found a rebound since its retest of the $2.00 level, as its price is now back at $2.09.

Stablecoin giant Tether has announced it is one of the backers of an $81 million funding round for an Italian artificial intelligence startup aiming to build advanced humanoid robots. 

The 70 million euro funding round for startup Generative Bionics was led by the AI fund of CDP Venture Capital, with participation from Tether, AMD Ventures, Duferco, Eni Next and RoboIT.

In an announcement on Monday, Tether said it provided capital to support the development of advanced humanoid robots, “built for industrial scale performance” and “human-centric interaction.” 

“Tether’s investment will support the development of Physical AI systems and edge AI solutions, and accelerate the industrial validation of the company’s humanoid platform, the development of its first production facility, and its integration in the broader robotics ecosystem,” Tether said. 

Generative Bionics is an AI startup and research spinoff from the Italian Institute of Technology. Its focus is on building humanoid robots with “real-world physical AI capabilities” such as industrial usability in factory production lines. 

“Tether’s support for Generative Bionics builds on its broader strategy to back emerging technologies that expand human potential while reducing reliance on centralized systems overseen by Big Tech,” Tether said.

Tether's USDT stablecoin has received regulatory recognition as an accepted fiat-referenced token across various major blockchains within Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM), advancing the company's push to expand its footprint in the region.

In a Monday statement, Tether said that authorities permit authorized persons licensed within the financial free zone to offer regulated activities involving USDT across networks, including Aptos, Celo, Cosmos, Kaia, Near, Polkadot, Tezos, TON, and TRON. 

The move is expected to widen USDT's reach within the UAE's international financial center and builds on earlier approvals for USDT on Ethereum, Solana and Avalanche.

"Introducing USDT within ADGM's regulated digital asset framework reinforces the role of stablecoins as essential components of today's financial landscape," said Paolo Ardoino, CEO of Tether, in the statement. "By extending recognition to USDT on several major blockchains, ADGM further strengthens Abu Dhabi's position as a global hub for compliant digital finance."

ADGM functions as a special economic zone and international financial center in the UAE capital, operating under its own legal and regulatory system. Its Financial Services Regulatory Authority acts as the primary regulator and licensing body for firms operating within the zone.

Specifically, Tether said the recognition allows ADGM-licensed institutions to support regulated activities involving USDT across nearly all blockchains where the token circulates, forming a multi-chain foundation that enhances liquidity and interoperability for trading, settlement and decentralized applications. 

Binance's ADGM license

Tether's announcement comes as Abu Dhabi deepens its push to become a global crypto — momentum highlighted by Binance's Monday disclosure that it has secured full authorization to operate its global platform, Binance.com, under the ADGM framework.

Binance, the world's largest crypto exchange, said it would operate through three separately licensed entities — an exchange, a clearing house and a broker-dealer — mirroring traditional financial-market architecture and enabling regulated trading, custody, settlement and off-exchange services. 

"ADGM is one of the most respected financial regulators globally, and holding an FSRA license under their gold standard framework shows that Binance meets the highest international standards for compliance, governance, risk management, and consumer protection," said Binance Co-CEO Richard Teng.

Pending final operational steps, Binance.com is set to begin regulated operations under the ADGM framework on Jan. 5, 2026.

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XRP Spot ETFs have crossed $1 Billion in assets under management, making XRP the fastest crypto Spot ETF to reach the milestone in the United States since Ethereum. Canary, Grayscale, Bitwise, and Franklin are driving most of the activity, with steady demand coming from institutional desks.

ETF inflows show strong interest from long term buyers who are adding XRP to regulated portfolios. This new pool of capital is expanding even as spot market sentiment remains mixed.

Garlinghouse Says Demand Is Only Getting Started

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse said the pace of growth points to a larger shift. He said that more than forty crypto ETFs have launched in the United States this year, showing how much pent up demand exists for regulated crypto exposure. 

He added that Vanguard’s decision to open its retirement and trading accounts to crypto ETFs means millions of Americans can now access digital assets without needing deep technical knowledge.

Garlinghouse said longevity, stability, and community are becoming key themes for this new wave of “offchain” crypto holders who prefer simple investment products instead of direct token management. XRP’s track record is helping it stand out among recent ETF launches.

“There’s pent up demand for regulated crypto products, and with Vanguard opening up access in traditional retirement / trading accounts for Americans..crypto is now accessible to millions more people who don’t need to be experts in the technology,” he wrote on social media.

Supply Tightens as Investors Accumulate

Institutional interest is also affecting supply. As ETF issuers continue to buy XRP to meet inflow demand, circulating supply on exchanges is slowly tightening. The token has held close to the $2 level for several sessions, which analysts say could set the stage for a supply shock if buying pressure continues.

XRP price started a recovery wave above $2.080. The price is now consolidating and might struggle to clear the $2.10 resistance.

• XRP price started a recovery wave above the $2.060 zone.
• The price is now trading above $2.050 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average.
• There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $2.0850 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair (data source from Kraken).
• The pair could continue to move up if it settles above $2.10.

XRP Price Faces Rejection

XRP price remained supported above $2.020 and started a recovery wave, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. The price was able to climb above $2.050 and $2.060 to enter a positive zone.

There was also a spike above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $2.2130 swing high to the $1.990 low. The bears defended a close above the $2.10 level and the price reacted to the downside. There is also a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $2.0850 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair.

The price is now trading above $2.050 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. If there is a fresh upward move, the price might face resistance near the $2.10 level and the trend line. The first major resistance is near the $2.120 level.

A close above $2.120 could send the price to $2.160 and the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $2.2130 swing high to the $1.990 low. The next hurdle sits at $2.20. A clear move above the $2.20 resistance might send the price toward the $2.2650 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $2.280 resistance. The next major hurdle for the bulls might be near $2.350.

Another Drop?

If XRP fails to clear the $2.10 resistance zone, it could start a fresh decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $2.050 level. The next major support is near the $2.0150 level.

If there is a downside break and a close below the $2.0150 level, the price might continue to decline toward $1.950. The next major support sits near the $1.920 zone, below which the price could continue lower toward $1.850.

Technical Indicators

Hourly MACD – The MACD for XRP/USD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for XRP/USD is now below the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $2.050 and $2.0150.

Major Resistance Levels – $2.10 and $2.160.

Some of the reported trading activity and volume of prediction market platform Polymarket may be significantly higher than actual reality due to a “data bug,” according to a researcher at Paradigm.

“It turns out almost every major dashboard has been double-counting Polymarket volume not related to wash trading,” said Storm, a researcher at the venture capital firm.

Storm explained that this was because “Polymarket’s onchain data contains redundant representations of each trade.”

When trades occur on Polymarket, the system emits multiple “OrderFilled” events: one set for makers, who have existing orders, and another for takers, who execute the trade. 

These events describe the same trade from different perspectives, not separate trades. However, many major dashboards have been combining them, counting the same volume twice.

Polymarket has been seen as a rare crypto success recently, as spot and derivatives markets have been in turmoil. The discovery that its headline metric may be incorrect across many dashboards could dent some of its perceived success. 

Polymarket’s complex blockchain data 

The researcher went on to explain that the accounting bug “inflates both types of volume metrics commonly used for prediction markets, notional volume and cashflow volume.” 

Related: Polymarket plans to use in-house market maker to trade against users: Report 

This complexity arises because Polymarket trades can be simple swaps or they can be “splits” and “merges” where both parties exchange cash for opposing positions. 

The smart contracts emit redundant events for tracking purposes, and standard blockchain explorers don’t make this distinction clear, the researcher stated. 

Cointelegraph contacted Polymarket for comment, but did not receive an immediate response.