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By Ian Salisbury
Gold is having a bad month. The struggles will likely turn out to be a blip rather than the start of a sustained downturn, Goldman Sachs says.
All in all it has been a great year for gold, with the precious metal up nearly 75%. Starting about a month ago, however, investors began to show some doubts. Gold reached a record high of $4,336 an ounce on Oct. 30. Since then, it's tumbled about 6% to $4,062 on Tuesday.
One culprit has been a strengthening U.S. dollar. Since gold is priced in dollars, a stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for global buyers who need to swap out of local currencies to acquire the metal.
A separate, but related, factor is the outlook for U.S. interest rates. A month ago, markets were all but certain the Federal Reserve would issue another interest-rate cut in December. In the past few weeks, those odds have fallen below 50%. Higher U.S. interest rates help strengthen the dollar and make gold, which doesn't pay any interest, comparatively less attractive than Treasuries.
The question weighing on gold investors: Is this just a bull market gut check, or the start of a bigger selloff?
Put Goldman Sachs clearly in the blip camp.
On Monday, the investment bank forecast gold prices would hit $4,900 by the end of 2026, representing a gain of about 21% on Tuesday's price. The metal could go even higher, according to Goldman analyst Lina Thomas. She sees "significant upside if the private investors diversification theme were to gain more traction" — a reference to more U.S. and international investors buying gold to complement their stock-and-bond portfolios.
What's behind all the bullishness? The current gold rally has been driven by heavy buying from two key sources — central banks and private investors, such as retirement savers, investment funds and more. Goldman doesn't see either one changing their behavior.
Central banks began buying gold to move away from dollar-denominated assets in 2022, after the U.S. froze Russian assets in response to the country's invasion of Ukraine. That rationale hasn't changed, notes Goldman, which says central banks' purchases appear to have ticked up in September, the latest month for which it has data.
Gold buying by investors, such as Main Street retirement savers, also appears to be on the rise. So far this year, investors have poured more than $41 billion into SPDR Gold Shares and other exchange-traded funds. While ETF investors have pulled some money out in the past month, the turnaround hasn't been dramatic, with the funds seeing outflows of only around $1.2 billion. Thomas expects ETF investors, alongside ultrahigh net worth individuals who buy physical gold, to continue accumulating the metal.
Goldman isn't the only one that remains bullish despite the pullback. Last week, strategists at UBS predicted gold could hit $5,000 in 2026 or 2027.
Write to Ian Salisbury at ian.salisbury@barrons.com
This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
Although last week's WASDE showed larger-than-expected corn production and yields, corn futures have been higher in recent sessions--and signal more upside, says Phil Flynn of Price Futures Group. "The corn futures are pretty good from the demand side," he says. "I think the ethanol situation should be favorable from a demand viewpoint over the next couple weeks." The EIA reported record-large daily ethanol production last month, at 1.123 million barrels a day. While they've since fallen back, analysts expect that ethanol will consume more corn than in prior years. Most-active CBOT corn is up 0.4%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
By Anthony Harrup
U.S. crude oil inventories likely edged in a third straight weekly build, while product stocks are seen extending their decline, according to a survey by The Wall Street Journal.
Commercial crude stockpiles are expected to have increased by 100,000 barrels to 427.7 million barrels for the week ended Nov. 14, according to the average estimate of eight analysts and traders. Four expect an increase and four see a decline, with estimates ranging from a 4.9 million barrel draw to a 4.8 million barrel build.
Gasoline inventories are forecast to be down by 100,000 barrels at 205 million barrels, with estimates ranging from a rise of 3.6 million barrels to a drop of 2.6 million barrels.
Stocks of distillate fuel, mostly diesel, are expected to have fallen by 1.5 million barrels to 109.4 million barrels, with forecasts ranging from a 1 million barrel decline to a 3 million barrel decline.
Refinery capacity use likely rose by 0.8 of a percentage point to 90.2%, with forecasts ranging from a half percentage point increase to a 1 percentage point rise.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration is scheduled to release inventory data on Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. EST.
Crude Gasoline Distillates Refinery Use
Again Capital 1.4 1.1 -1.6 0.8
Rystad Energy -4.9 3.6 -1.0 0.9
Excel Futures 4.8 -1.2 -1.3 0.5
Spartan Capital Securities -0.8 -2.6 -1.1 n/f
Mizuho -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 1.0
Price Futures Group -2.0 -1.0 -3.0 1.0
Ritterbusch and Associates 2.5 1.0 -2.0 0.5
Tradition Energy 1.1 -0.8 -1.3 n/f
AVERAGE 0.1 -0.1 -1.5 0.8
Note: Numbers in millions of barrels, with the exception of refinery use, which is in percentage points.
n/f = no forecast
unch = unchanged
Write to Anthony Harrup at anthony.harrup@wsj.com
By Paul Vieira and Robb M. Stewart
OTTAWA--Canadian Industry Minister Melanie Joly is aiming to deliver a decision next month on whether Anglo American can proceed with its takeover of Teck Resources, but warned that the British miner's pledges to date aren't enough.
Under a revised Canadian industrial strategy, the government wants to maintain homegrown global companies with big Canadian headquarters, Joly said.
"What I've said is that what Anglo Teck was offering was not enough. And I think that Canadians should get more out of this merger of equals, and the process is continuing," she said.
A spokeswoman for Joly didn't immediately respond to a question about what the minister would like Anglo and Teck to propose to secure government approval.
A spokesman for Teck said the companies continue to engage with the government about what is an opportunity to strengthen the country's critical minerals sector. "This merger of equals will create a Canadian-based global critical minerals champion, with significant economic, social and strategic benefits for Canada," he said.
A spokesman for Anglo declined to comment and said the company wouldn't offer running commentary on discussions with the government regarding the deal.
As industry minister, Joly is responsible for enforcing Canada's foreign-investment laws, which require government approval for foreign-led mergers and acquisitions to ensure they are in the national interest.
Anglo and Teck in September reached a deal to create one of the world's largest copper producers with a combined market value of more than $53 billion. Anglo has estimated the transaction values Teck at more than $17 billion, and projected it would close within 18 months.
The deal, one of the biggest ever in the mining industry, proposes the creation of company named Anglo Teck that would be based in Vancouver, British Columbia, with Anglo Chief Executive Duncan Wanblad leading the merged company and Teck CEO Jonathan Price becoming deputy chief executive. Anglo shareholders are set to own about 62% of the combined business, with Teck shareholders owning just under 38%.
The tie-up would create a copper producer with annual output of some 1.2 million metric tons and key assets in Chile, Peru and Canada. It comes as demand for the metal is rising amid a shift to greener sources of energy and with a growing need for a key component of electric cars and AI data centers.
Canada last year approved the sale of Teck's coal assets to Glencore, although at the same time cautioned that pending approval of foreign-led deals involving critical minerals, including copper, would only be granted in the most exceptional of circumstances.
Joly said the vision for Canada's industries is to create national champions, to have more homegrown companies in Canada.
In addition to assets in Peru, Chile and the U.S., Teck operates the Highlight Valley copper and molybdenum mining operation in south-central British Columbia. The company has plans to extend the life of the Canadian operation to from 2028 to 2046, which it estimated would create about 2,900 jobs during construction and generate hundreds of millions of dollars in annual gross domestic product.
Write to Paul Vieira at paul.vieira@wsj.com and Robb M. Stewart at robb.stewart@wsj.com
By Patrick Sheridan
Alabama's Black Belt Energy Gas District is selling $525 million of bonds to prepay for a 30-year supply of natural gas.
The Series C Gas Project Revenue Bonds have maturities ranging from 2027 to 2034. A term bond will also be offered that matures in 2056, according to the preliminary official statement posted Monday on MuniOS. Preliminary pricing information, including interest rates and yields for the bonds, was unavailable.
Interest on the bonds is payable semiannually starting on each Feb. 1 and again on Aug. 1.
Money from the sale will be used to prepay for the costs of the acquisition of a fixed quantity of natural gas to be delivered across an approximately 30 year period under a prepaid natural gas sales agreement between Black Belt and GNM Energy Prepay II LLC, a Delaware limited liability company.
Black Belt will sell all the natural gas acquired under the agreement to the Louisiana Community Development Utility Commission for resale to TotalEnergies Gas and Power North America, a wholly-owned subsidiary of TotalEnergies Holdings USA.
TotalEnergies will deliver the natural gas as feed stock to Cameron LNG for the production of liquefied natural gas at its facility in Hackberry, La. Cameron exports LNG from that plant to customers around the world, according to its website.
The Black Belt Energy Gas District is a public corporation and formed as a joint action gas supply agency for the purpose of acquiring long-tem natural gas supplies for sale to the Clark-Mobile Counties Gas District for the benefit of the member municipalities and to other gas customers throughout Alabama and outside the state.
S&P Global Ratings is expected to assign a BBB- rating to the bonds, according to the preliminary official statement.
Morgan Stanley and Stifel, Nicolaus & Company are the underwriters.
Write to Patrick Sheridan at patrick.sheridan@wsj.com
-0-
By Patrick Sheridan
Alabama's Black Belt Energy Gas District is selling $525 million of bonds to prepay for a 30-year supply of natural gas.
The Series C Gas Project Revenue Bonds have maturities ranging from 2027 to 2034. A term bond will also be offered that matures in 2056, according to the preliminary official statement posted Monday on MuniOS. Preliminary pricing information, including interest rates and yields for the bonds, was unavailable.
Interest on the bonds is payable semiannually starting on each Feb. 1 and again on Aug. 1.
Money from the sale will be used to prepay for the costs of the acquisition of a fixed quantity of natural gas to be delivered across an approximately 30 year period under a prepaid natural gas sales agreement between Black Belt and GNM Energy Prepay II LLC, a Delaware limited liability company.
Black Belt will sell all the natural gas acquired under the agreement to the Louisiana Community Development Utility Commission for resale to TotalEnergies Gas and Power North America, a wholly-owned subsidiary of TotalEnergies Holdings USA.
TotalEnergies will deliver the natural gas as feed stock to Cameron LNG for the production of liquefied natural gas at its facility in Hackberry, La. Cameron exports LNG from that plant to customers around the world, according to its website.
The Black Belt Energy Gas District is a public corporation and formed as a joint action gas supply agency for the purpose of acquiring long-tem natural gas supplies for sale to the Clark-Mobile Counties Gas District for the benefit of the member municipalities and to other gas customers throughout Alabama and outside the state.
S&P Global Ratings is expected to assign a BBB- rating to the bonds, according to the preliminary official statement.
Morgan Stanley and Stifel, Nicolaus & Company are the underwriters.
Write to Patrick Sheridan at patrick.sheridan@wsj.com
-0-
By Paul Vieira and Robb M. Stewart
OTTAWA--Canadian Industry Minister Melanie Joly is aiming to deliver a decision next month on whether Anglo American can proceed with its takeover of Teck Resources, but warned that the British miner's pledges to date aren't enough.
Under a revised Canadian industrial strategy, the government wants to maintain homegrown global companies with big Canadian headquarters, Joly said.
"What I've said is that what Anglo Teck was offering was not enough. And I think that Canadians should get more out of this merger of equals, and the process is continuing," she said.
A spokeswoman for Joly didn't immediately respond to a question about what the minister would like Anglo and Teck to propose to secure government approval.
A spokesman for Anglo declined to comment and said the company wouldn't offer running commentary on discussions with the government regarding the deal. A representative for Teck wasn't immediate reachable for comment.
As industry minister, Joly is responsible for enforcing Canada's foreign-investment laws, which require government approval for foreign-led mergers and acquisitions to ensure they are in the national interest.
Anglo and Teck in September reached a deal to create one of the world's largest copper producers with a combined market value of more than $53 billion. Anglo has estimated the transaction values Teck at more than $17 billion, and projected it would close within 18 months.
The deal, one of the biggest ever in the mining industry, proposes the creation of company named Anglo Teck that would be based in Vancouver, British Columbia, with Anglo Chief Executive Duncan Wanblad leading the merged company and Teck CEO Jonathan Price becoming deputy chief executive. Anglo shareholders are set to own about 62% of the combined business, with Teck shareholders owning just under 38%.
The tie-up would create a copper producer with annual output of some 1.2 million metric tons and key assets in Chile, Peru and Canada. It comes as demand for the metal is rising amid a shift to greener sources of energy and with a growing need for a key component of electric cars and AI data centers.
Canada last year approved the sale of Teck's coal assets to Glencore, although at the same time cautioned that pending approval of foreign-led deals involving critical minerals, including copper, would only be granted in the most exceptional of circumstances.
Joly said the vision for Canada's industries is to create national champions, to have more homegrown companies in Canada.
Write to Paul Vieira at paul.vieira@wsj.com and Robb M. Stewart at robb.stewart@wsj.com
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