Fear Not: Bitcoin Whale Selling Doesn’t Point To A Crypto Meltdown—Analysts

The multibillion-dollar scam known as “pig-butchering,” once treated as a consumer-fraud issue, has crossed a new threshold, prompting concerns over national security. 

In a podcast, Chainalysis head of national security intelligence, Andrew Fierman and former prosecutor Erin West, the founder of cross-sector anti-scam nonprofit Operation Shamrock, discussed how pig butchering is becoming a threat to national security. 

“So if anybody is touching money in any way, you’re part of this. So you need to be prepared to understand the threat and the gravity of what’s happening on a national security level,” West said, highlighting the importance of education and awareness in combating crypto scams. 

A pig-butchering scam is a long-term fraud strategy in which criminals attempt to establish trust with a victim, often through romance or friendship, before steering them into a fake cryptocurrency investment platform and draining their funds. 

The growing scale of pig-butchering scams

In the podcast, the duo discussed how fraud rings across Southeast Asia operate dormitory-style scam compounds where trafficked workers contact unsuspecting victims, foster trust through romance and then push them into fake crypto investments with the goal of draining funds. 

In 2023, the US Department of Justice (DOJ) seized about $112 million in crypto linked to pig-butchering scams. In a February report, Chainalysis said that pig-butchering scams alone increased by almost 40% year-over-year in 2024, while crypto scam revenues overall exceeded $9.9 billion. 

In addition, one under-reported area of pig-butchering is that victims are often hit twice. The duo stated in the podcast that after the initial scam, victims would receive follow-up contact from fake recovery firms claiming to help recover the money. 

“Once this happens to you, you will be put on a list […] and you are even more likely to get hit up again,” West said. 

Fierman and West said these scams have matured into a transnational crime model, blending human trafficking, money laundering and crypto rails, making them far more complex than your everyday fraud. 

However, Fierman suggested that blockchain’s transparency offers an opportunity for regulators, exchanges and virtual asset service providers (VASPs) to disrupt the scams.

“One of the benefits of the blockchain, at least as the mechanism for this, is that there is potential opportunity for disruption if it’s enabled right,” he said. “And the transparency of the blockchain gives that opportunity to potentially disrupt at the point of cash out.”

How authorities are stepping in

With the scams having a much wider impact, governments are naturally stepping in. On Nov. 12, the DOJ announced the formation of a “Scam Center Strike Force” to target Chinese-linked transnational criminal organizations behind crypto investment fraud in Southeast Asia. 

Simultaneously, regional law enforcement departments are also enforcing freezes and sanctions to combat the issue. On Aug. 27, law enforcement in Asia Pacific (APAC) collaborated with Chainalysis, OKX, Tether and Binance to freeze $47 million in pig butchering funds. 

The strategy is not very simple, but clear. This is to disrupt the on-ramp and off-ramp points for scammers, sanction the facilitators and build private-public partnerships. 

“My advocacy about transnational organised crime has been consistently: Use every tool in our arsenal. Sanctions, indictments, diplomatic pressure,” West said.

Related: Scammers posed as Australian police to steal crypto, authorities warn

Red flags to watch out for 

Like many scams, there are ways to spot a pig-butchering scam. The scam often involves manipulating feelings, which means someone expressing strong feelings for you too quickly through online channels, especially without meeting, could be a scam. 

It becomes more suspicious if whoever you’re in touch with refuses to share personal information or professional credentials. 

One of the main signs it’s a pig-butchering scam is when the person starts asking for money, even if they claim it’s for an emergency.

This also takes the form of risk-free investments and easy money, often showing fake screenshots of massive profits to convince their victims to invest. 

Bitcoin has fallen below $97,000 once again, raising new fears across the market as more than $1.1 billion in long positions were liquidated within 24 hours. This marks the third time in a month that Bitcoin has slipped under this zone

. With sentiment weakening fast, the biggest question now dominating the market is simple: How low can Bitcoin really fall from here?

Analysts Identify Two Danger Zones Ahead

Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr has highlighted two critical levels that could decide Bitcoin’s next major move, and both levels carry serious weight.

The first key support sits near $87,000, a zone identified using what Adler calls a “conservative Bitcoin valuation model.”

This model, scoring 95/100 in back testing, is based entirely on on-chain activity and explains 87% of Bitcoin’s price behavior. Because of this, the $87K level is viewed as a strong, fundamentally backed support.

But the real fear comes from the second major support level at $74,000, a zone analysts call the “panic level.” If Bitcoin falls this far, it would likely trigger a deeper emotional sell-off across the market.

Repeating Bear Signal From Past Cycles

Adding more concern, analyst Ted pointed out that Bitcoin is showing a familiar pattern seen in three major bear markets, 2014, 2017, and 2021.

In all three cases, the real downturn began right after a death cross, where the short-term moving average falls below the long-term one.

Ted warns that the same pattern is forming again in 2025, showing an almost identical setup. If history repeats, Bitcoin could be entering the early stage of another big correction.

MicroStrategy Suddenly Starts Selling Bitcoin After 2 Years

The panic grew even stronger after MicroStrategy, led by Michael Saylor, suddenly began selling Bitcoin for the first time in two years.

The company has reportedly dumped 33,000 BTC worth $3.2 billion, and on-chain data shows they are continuing to sell in small batches every few minutes.

By Steve Goldstein

Bitcoin is usually, but not always, a buy when it enters ab

Historically, bitcoin entering a bear market has been great buying opportunity. But not always.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) was trading under $100,000 on Friday morning, well below its early October peak.

MarketWatch looked at data since 2014 when bitcoin fell at least 20% from highs.

   Peak Date   Peak Price   Bear Entry  Entry Price  Decline (%)  6M Return  12M Return 
   2014-09-17  $457.33      2014-10-03  $359.51      -21.39%      -31.22%    -33.60% 
   2015-12-15  $465.32      2016-01-15  $364.33      -21.70%      79.64%     124.63% 
   2016-06-16  $766.31      2016-06-22  $596.12      -22.21%      32.98%     353.84% 
   2017-01-04  $1,154.73    2017-01-06  $902.20      -21.87%      188.40%    1842.69% 
   2017-03-03  $1,274.99    2017-03-18  $973.82      -23.62%      223.98%    744.48% 
   2017-06-11  $2,958.11    2017-07-11  $2,337.79    -20.97%      604.84%    173.54% 
   2017-09-01  $4,892.01    2017-09-13  $3,882.59    -20.63%      137.09%    67.86% 
   2017-11-08  $7,459.69    2017-11-12  $5,950.07    -20.24%      41.87%     7.08% 
   2017-12-16  $19,497.40   2017-12-22  $13,831.80   -29.06%      -51.01%    -70.98% 
   2021-01-08  $40,797.61   2021-01-21  $30,825.70   -24.44%      -3.30%     18.27% 
   2021-02-21  $57,539.95   2021-02-28  $45,137.77   -21.55%      8.69%      -4.31% 
   2021-04-13  $63,503.46   2021-04-24  $50,050.87   -21.18%      24.29%     -21.14% 
   2021-11-08  $67,566.83   2021-11-26  $53,569.77   -20.72%      -44.82%    -69.27% 
   2024-03-13  $73,083.50   2024-05-01  $58,254.01   -20.29%      20.01%     65.64% 
   2025-01-21  $106,146.27  2025-02-26  $84,347.02   -20.54%      30.56%     N/A 
   2025-10-06  $124,752.53  2025-11-13  $99,697.49   -20.08%      N/A        N/A 

The median gain six months later has been 31% and the median gain 12 months later is 42%. But there also have been situations where even a year later, bitcoin is still down by some 70%.

Bitcoin of course has no fundamental value, even with aggressive retail and increasingly institutional adoption.

The storied hedge fund D.E. Shaw says bitcoin could be a non-productive store of value, but unlike gold, it tends to move with other financial assets rather than against them.

-Steve Goldstein

This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

1042 GMT - A new wave of risk aversion and downturn in tech stocks have prompted previously reliable sources of support for bitcoin to flee the cryptocurrency, Tickmill Group's Patrick Munnelly says in a note. Major investment funds, exchange traded fund investors, and corporate treasuries have retreated from bitcoin, taking away a "crucial support pillar for this year's rally and initiating a fresh period of market vulnerability." Remarks from Federal Reserve officials that sounded cautious about further interest-rate cuts have dented risk appetite. Uncertainty over a coming deluge of delayed U.S. official data after the reopening of the government also weighs on sentiment. Bitcoin falls 1.9% to $96,919 after earlier hitting a six-month low of $96,025, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

1039 GMT - The Chinese economy is likely to remain weak in the coming quarters, Capital Economics says in a note, adding that they expect the decline in investment spending to partially reverse soon. The deeper concern is output-side measures of activity, economists Zichun Huang and Julian Evans-Pritchard write, noting while it held up well in the last quarter, it slowed considerably in October. Capital Economics' labor market indicator signals improvement in the market, while the prolonged property downturn is expected to continue to weigh on activity. The economy also faces a tougher external environment, CE economists say, with the recent U.S.-China trade deal unlikely to provide much relief. With low interest rates already and a large budget deficit, the scope and appetite for substantial policy support appears limited, the economists say. (jason.chau@wsj.com)

1033 GMT - Reports indicating that the U.K. government plans to drop the anticipated income tax rises at the Nov 26 budget undermine the credibility of the Treasury Chief Rachel Reeves, Rabobank analysts say in a note. The U-turn shows that the government is more fearful of political unease than it is about upsetting gilt investors, Rabobank says. "In the absence of any reassurance from the Chancellor regarding gilt supply, sterling is set to remain nervous." Sterling weakens to a 2.5-year low against the euro. Ten-year gilt yields are up around 8 basis points to 4.515%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

1012 GMT - RHB revises up its forecast for Malaysia's 2025 GDP growth to 4.7% from 4.2%, citing stronger mining output, firm manufacturing activity and upside from net exports. 4Q GDP is expected to expand 4.6% on resilient domestic demand and easing tariff risks, senior economist Chin Yee Sian says in a note. For 2026, she maintains her 4.7% growth projection, supported by stronger domestic demand, the expansionary fiscal stance from Budget 2026 and an improving external backdrop as tariff uncertainties recede. Chin expects Bank Negara to keep its policy rate at 2.75% through 2026, while remaining data-dependent. A 25bp cut is possible if tariff risks escalate and growth slips below the government's expected target range of 4.0%-4.5%, RHB adds. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

1007 GMT - The 10-year Treasury yield has been moving sideways just above the 4% mark for a good two months now and a clear directional move isn't expected for the time being, LBBW's Elmar Voelker says in a note. Bond bull's attempts to sustainably break through this psychologically important yield support have not yet been successful, and the same applies to attempts of the benchmark yield to break out upwards, which recently stopped at around 4.15%, the senior fixed income analyst says. "As a result, the medium-term downward trend in yields, starting from the high for 2025, has so far remained intact," he says. The 10-year Treasury yield rises 1.6 basis points to 4.126%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

1004 GMT - A Financial Times report that the Labour government has dropped plans to raise income taxes has prompted concerns that U.K. treasury chief Rachel Reeves won't take the bold decisions needed to repair the public finances, AJ Bell's Dan Coatsworth says in a note. "Bond markets should, in theory, want the government to take bold decisions rather than tinkering at the edges," he says. "For a while it looked as if this might happen, but the latest reports about a policy rethink would suggest otherwise." U.K. gilt yields rise while sterling falls on the report. Ten-year gilt yields earlier touched a one-month high of 4.571%, Tradeweb data show. (jessica.fleetham@wsj.com)

1004 GMT - The Czech koruna has limited potential to rise further in the near-term after hitting a two-year high against the euro overnight, ING's Chris Turner says in a note. The euro's recent recovery against the dollar has boosted the koruna as it tracks the exchange rate. Thursday's strong Czech current account data and rate differentials have also favored koruna strength. "We still believe in gradual koruna appreciation looking ahead," Turner says. In the short term, however, it the euro versus the koruna has likely fully exploited the potential of higher rates and its fair value is currently around 24.200-24.2250 koruna, he says. The euro rises 0.2% to 24.186 koruna after hitting a low of 24.140 overnight, LSEG data show.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)

1002 GMT - The U.K. government could increase business taxes instead of individual taxes at the November 26 budget, Caxton's David Stritch says in a note. This follows reports on the Financial Times that Treasury Chief Rachel Reeves no longer plans to raise income tax. "The upcoming increase in the tax burden may now shift to businesses rather than individuals, likely making the unemployment situation worse and growth even weaker," Stritch says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0934 GMT - December's Federal Reserve policy meeting presents a tough challenge for policymakers with official data lacking due to the recent government shutdown, says FP Markets' Aaron Hill in a note. "It is also no secret that the Fed remains divided and cautious," the chief market analyst says. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said that she was entering December's meeting with "an open mind," while Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari is also on the fence, Hill says. Despite some Fed officials still backing cuts, "a meaningful hawkish repricing has occurred" whereby investors are uncertain if rates will be cut, Hill says. Money markets pricing showing a roughly equal chance of a rate cut versus unchanged rates, according to LSEG data. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0911 GMT - China is likely to roll out more policy support in the near term, according to Citi analysts in a research note. China's economic indicators softened across supply and demand in October, the analysts point out. A later than usual Mid-Autumn Festival that fell in October this year and fading effect from trade-in subsidies likely explain much of the slowdown in PMIs, exports, retail sales and industrial production, they say. The window for more incremental policies could be gradually opening, the analysts say. More property support could come after a key policy meeting in December, Citi says. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)

0851 GMT - Malaysia's economic growth is expected remain steady, with UOB maintaining its 4.6% forecast for 2025, economists Julia Goh and Loke Siew Ting say in a note. They expect external uncertainties, including U.S. sector-specific tariffs, to persist, though upside risks may emerge from cash aid, gradual subsidy reforms and improving sentiment following the U.S.-Malaysia trade pact. For 2026, UOB projects growth at 4.5%, supported by fiscal measures, civil-service pay hikes, cash handouts and tourism catalysts tied to government campaigns and major global events. With inflation contained and financial conditions stable, BNM is expected to keep its policy stance unchanged over the next year, UOB adds. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

0849 GMT - Sterling's negative reaction to a Financial Times report that the U.K. government will drop plans to raise income taxes indicates credibility concerns over the November 26 budget, MUFG Bank's Lee Hardman says in a note. The decision could be viewed as the government prioritizing its "popularity with the public and the stability of the Labour party over doing what is best to restore confidence in the public finances." The government is still likely to deliver fiscal tightening measures that dampen economic growth and create more room for the Bank of England to cut interest rates, he says. Sterling falls 0.5% to $1.3126 and hits a two-and-a-half-year low against the euro of 0.8865 per euro, LSEG data show. Gilt yields also rise sharply. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

Cathie Wood’s investment company ARK Invest is back to buying shares of USDC issuer Circle as the stock sinks below $90.

ARK bought a total of 542,269 Circle (CRCL) shares over the past two trading days, investing around $46 million, according to the firm’s daily trading disclosures seen by Cointelegraph.

The two acquisitions — a $30.4 million purchase on Wednesday and a $15.5 million buy on Thursday — came amid a decline in CRCL shares, which closed at $86 and $82.30, respectively.

The fresh purchases mark ARK’s first CRCL transactions since the firm offloaded roughly 1.7 million Circle shares across four sales in June at an average closing price of $200, generating $352 million.

Circle shares: From nearly $300 to $82

Circle shares debuted on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on June 5, opening at $69 and closing $83.2 on the first day of trading, according to NYSE data.

The stock quickly surged to an all-time high of nearly $299 by June 23, but soon faced a sharp sell-off, falling below $200 in July. After losing $100 support on Nov. 11, Circle shares continued dipping further, briefly dropping to $81.40.

From its 2025 peak, Stellar has fallen from $0.52 to $0.26. Grayscale — one of the leading crypto investment funds — has notably managed its XLM holdings during this downturn.

Extreme market fear at the end of the year continues to fuel negative expectations. What does Stellar have to face these headwinds?

Grayscale Holds More Than 116 Million XLM

According to the latest data from Coinglass, Grayscale’s XLM holdings increased from last year, before XLM printed a “god candle” in November 2024 with nearly 600% growth.

Grayscale successfully accumulated XLM from 70 million to 119 million ahead of the rally. This move highlights the fund’s effectiveness as a smart-money participant that positioned itself before major market swings.

However, since early 2025, the fund has stopped accumulating. XLM’s price has stopped setting new highs and entered a downward trend. Compared to the 2025 peak, Grayscale’s XLM holdings slightly decreased to 116.8 million.

The fund’s refusal to sell aggressively reflects its investors’ long-term perspective. They appear to view XLM as a valuable asset in the cross-border payments sector.

More notably, shares of Grayscale Stellar Lumens Trust (GXLM) trade at a premium over its actual Net Asset Value (NAV).

GXLM’s market value sits at $24.85, while its NAV per share is $22.29.

The market price is about 10–15% higher than NAV. This premium indicates that investors are willing to pay above the underlying asset value. This condition has dominated most of the trading sessions in 2025.

However, when comparing Grayscale’s XLM holdings to the more than 32 billion XLM circulating supply, the fund only controls about 0.36% of the supply. This share remains too small to create any decisive impact on the market.

What Does Stellar Have to Counter Selling Pressure?

November 2025 marked a pivotal moment when seven major crypto players — Fireblocks, Solana Foundation, TON Foundation, Polygon Labs, Stellar Development Foundation, Mysten Labs, and Monad Foundation — officially launched the Blockchain Payments Consortium (BPC).

This alliance aims to promote blockchain-based payment standards. BPC focuses on cross-chain integration, enabling XLM to reach millions of users across other ecosystems. These developments could boost demand in 2026.

In parallel, the Stellar ecosystem continues to see explosive growth in Real-World Assets (RWA). Total RWA value on the network reached a record $654 million in November 2025, up from $300 million at the beginning of the year.

Charts from RWA.xyz show significant contributions from tokenized funds, including Franklin OnChain US Government Fund and WisdomTree Prime.

However, real adoption stories do not always align with market sentiment. Recent analysis indicates that XLM has historically performed poorly in November. With altcoins drowning in extreme fear, XLM may struggle to escape the broader negative trend.