Ethereum Loses Momentum While OI Holds Steady: Binance Data Shows A Market Reset

By Brian Schreiner

About the author: Brian Schreiner is the founder and chief investment officer of Alpha Rock Investments, a boutique investment management firm.

Since the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024, investors have been haunted by a persistent narrative: "Bitcoin is just a tech stock on steroids."

The common view is that when the stock market sneezes, Bitcoin catches a cold. As soon as liquidity dries up, crypto goes into free fall. It is a convenient theory for Bitcoin skeptics. But a closer look at the data reveals what many investors are missing: Bitcoin hasn't been highly correlated with stocks.

Generally, a high correlation of +0.7 to +1.0 means that two assets move closely together or in lockstep. Moderate correlations of +0.3 to +0.7 mean that a relationship exists, but the assets often diverge. Low correlations of 0.0 to +0.3 mean that the assets don't move together very often and, at the lower end, their movements are entirely independent.

To understand the true relationship between Bitcoin and stocks, my firm looked at the correlation coefficients of the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF to the S&P 500 SPY ETF and BITB to Invesco QQQ Trust ETF. Since the launch of the BITB last year, its average correlation with the SPY and QQQ has sat squarely at the lower-end of moderate: 0.38 and 0.39, respectively.

So while Bitcoin and the stock market are influenced by some of the same market forces, they are by no means tethered to one another.

They both have unique drivers. Generally speaking, Bitcoin halving — the programmed four-year reduction in new coin supply — doesn't impact the stock market. Bitcoin adoption rates, sovereign purchases, corporate treasury purchases, and government regulatory action don't affect stock prices either. Crypto-specific events like network improvements, technology upgrades, and issues with exchanges, such as the collapse of FTX, also strongly influence Bitcoin without affecting equities. Risks that quantum computing may pose to blockchains could influence the entire cryptocurrency market, but shouldn't change stock prices.

Of course, we could also create a long list of factors that would impact stock prices but have little or no effect on the price of Bitcoin. There are many days, weeks, months and longer periods where stocks may be flat or down while Bitcoin is up, and vice versa.

Modern portfolio theory tells us this is a good thing for diversifying portfolios. Adding an asset with positive expected returns and low-to-moderate correlation can improve a portfolio's overall risk-adjusted returns. If Bitcoin had a high correlation to stocks, adding it to a stock portfolio would offer little diversification benefit beyond simply adding volatility. But with a correlation below 0.40, the story changes.

It is important to note that during periods of extreme market panic, correlations among risk assets tend to spike. It is prudent to expect the correlation of Bitcoin to stocks to be high during such periods. So although Bitcoin acts as a good diversifier in most market conditions, it probably isn't the best hedge to protect your portfolio when stock prices tank. History shows that in such panics there are very few true havens beyond cash and short term bonds. Those are the only assets where correlations with stocks have remained low.

But asset correlations aren't static; they change over time. And every panic is unique. It is possible that in the future, assets like commodities, gold, bitcoin will act as a haven from equities. As the Bitcoin adoption rates increase and the network matures, I expect its correlation to stocks to continue to moderate. For my clients, that modest correlation is a feature, not a bug.

Guest commentaries like this one are written by authors outside the Barron's newsroom. They reflect the perspective and opinions of the authors. Submit feedback and commentary pitches to ideas@barrons.com .

This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

Bitcoin traders are facing fresh on-chain signals that suggest older coins are re-entering the market as investors prepare for the upcoming Federal Reserve policy decision. Analysts expect the Fed to cut rates at its December meeting, and markets have already priced in a 25-basis-point move.

However, on-chain activity indicates uncertainty beneath the surface. 

Dormant Bitcoin Supply Returns as Market Waits for Policy Clarity

Over 2,400 BTC aged more than ten years moved this week, activating long-dormant supply worth more than $215 million. These coins usually stay untouched, and movement often precedes distribution rather than accumulation.

Another signal shows Coin Days Destroyed flashing again. This metric highlights old holders moving Bitcoins, often to sell into strength. 

Demand absorbed this supply earlier in the year, but analysts now observe buyers stepping back while experienced holders send coins to market.

Older supply returning during weak demand has historically pressured price action. ETF inflows remain soft, and netflows show reduced institutional appetite compared with recent peaks. This suggests rallies may struggle unless liquidity returns.

Institutional analysts remain confident in the broader cycle. Bernstein argues Bitcoin may have broken the four-year halving rhythm and is entering an extended adoption phase. 

The firm expects Bitcoin to reach $150,000 in 2026, with a potential 2027 peak near $200,000.

Yet market direction now depends on the Federal Reserve. If policymakers cut rates as expected, liquidity may improve and strengthen risk assets through early 2026. 

A weaker dollar and lower capital costs could help support ETF demand and absorb long-term holder selling.

A delay or smaller cut could create volatility. Combined with revived supply, Bitcoin may face deeper corrections before recovering. 

Analysts warn that strong bids will be necessary to offset aging supply reactivation.

For now, Bitcoin sits between shifting on-chain behavior and macro expectations. Investors will watch the FOMC signal closely to understand whether the next move strengthens market resilience or exposes further downside.

AI infrastructure provider CoreWeave (CRWV) plans to raise $2 billion through a private offering of convertible senior notes due 2031, with proceeds earmarked for general corporate purposes and for capped-call transactions that could reduce potential future shareholder dilution.

The notes include an option for purchasers to buy an additional $300 million, the company said Monday. They can be settled in cash, shares or a combination of both at CoreWeave’s discretion.

To limit dilution if the notes are ultimately converted into equity, CoreWeave is entering into capped-call transactions. This hedge increases the effective conversion price and provides a degree of protection for existing shareholders while preserving financial flexibility.

CoreWeave was founded in 2017 as Atlantic Crypto, a company that used GPUs to mine Ether (ETH). As the crypto market weakened, it pivoted in 2019 into cloud and high-performance computing services, eventually refocusing its GPU infrastructure on AI workloads.

The company now operates a network of data centers built specifically for AI, and as of this year, reported running more than 33 facilities. It has not said whether proceeds from its latest fundraising will go toward further expanding that footprint.

Senator Mark Warner recently spoke at MoonPay’s New York office about the current status of the crypto market structure bill, stressing that passing it before the Christmas break will be extremely challenging. 

The main reason is that key language from the White House is still missing for two critical sections of the bill: ethics provisions and quorum requirements.

Warner explained that there is a broader tension about who is driving the legislation. 

At some point, Republican lawmakers will have to clarify whether they see this as a White House-led initiative or a Congressional decision. 

He also stressed that both his team and Republican staffers are engaged in intensive daily discussions, putting in hours of work to negotiate the details. 

He is confident that the bill will eventually be completed, but emphasized that careful deliberation is necessary to ensure it is structured correctly.

More obstacles

At the same time, some members of Congress are pushing for national‑security safeguards in the legislation. For instance, Elizabeth Warren and Jack Reed recently pressed the Department of Justice and the U.S. Department of the Treasury to scrutinize crypto ventures. They have specifically raised concerns about possible token sales to entities linked to illicit actors.

Peter Brandt flags two major BTC downside targets

Bitcoin just picked up a warning from trading legend Peter Brandt, whose latest chart calls for a drop to $81,852 or even $59,403 per BTC.

• BTC to $59,000. Peter Brandt’s newest Bitcoin chart outlines a weekly five-leg climb followed by a curve break.

Peter Brandt's new Bitcoin chart gives a straight message that bulls will not like. His weekly setup shows a clear five-leg climb, a broken curve and two landing zones that are far below today's price. The first one sits near $81,852, and the deeper one is around $59,403 per BTC.

The trader with 50-year experience in markets does not see them as panic markers, but as the natural clean-up after a run that stretched too far while traders priced in an endless policy pivot.

• Bigger picture. Brandt compares late 2025 to late 2021 in reverse: prices falling while traditional indexes like the S&P 500 remain stable.

The bigger picture helps explain why Brandt's targets do not look extreme. It is like late 2025 is the same as late 2021, just the opposite. Prices are dropping, but the major indexes like S&P 500 are still doing okay. Four years ago, the market was getting ready for quantitative tightening, now it is the easing narrative.

The main issue is that a lot of assets already trade as if rates are going to drop quickly. Crypto followed the same logic, ignoring that future cuts may already be in the chart.

Ripple CTO explains purpose of new XRPL hub

David Schwartz explains his XRP Ledger push.

• XRPL matters. When asked what the hub is for, Schwartz outlined three reasons for running it.

In a recent tweet, Ripple CTO David Schwartz indicated that his hub had been running on rippled v2.6.2 with no issues reported. This information from the Ripple CTO prompted a question from an X user who asked what the hub was for.

Responding to this question, Schwartz outlined three reasons why he chose to run a hub on XRP Ledger. First, he hadn't been running any XRPL infrastructure for a few years and thought it would be cool to start again.

Second, there had been some instances of increased latency between some validators, and he believes that one good megahub could meaningfully reduce network latency and network diameter and increase reliability.

Third, there were some localized issues with XRPL not performing as well as expected in some cases, and he needed a hub to test his theories for what might be causing these issues.

• No disruptive tests. The hub is designed as a single high-reliability server aimed at maximum uptime.

In August, Ripple CTO David Schwartz unveiled plans for a hub dedicated to UNL validators, other hubs and servers running XRPL applications. This, as a single server, would operate as a production service aiming for maximum uptime and reliability, relying on a single hub.

Data gathered from it to understand network behavior and performance, and no disruptive testing would be done unless there were very unusual circumstances justifying it.

23.5 trillion SHIB outflow raises eyebrows

Shiba Inu is seeing an enormous exchange outflow that can change things around drastically.

• Suspicious activity. Over 23.56 trillion SHIB moved in a single day. 

More than 23.56 trillion SHIB reportedly moved in a single day, according to Shiba Inu’s on-chain data from CryptoQuant at the time of writing, which is so out of the ordinary that it practically begs for suspicion. 

If true, this would suggest significant internal reorganization by big holders or unheard-of selling pressure. However, the more logical explanation, a tracking error or data anomaly, is much simpler given the behavior of the chart and the rest of the market.

• Nothing happened. Normally, if trillions of tokens hit exchanges, the market would show widened spreads, high-volume flushes or visible price dislocation.

With no indications of unusual volatility or liquidity shocks, SHIB’s price action appears routine. It is still trapped below all major moving averages. 

Expanded spreads, violent candles or, at the very least, a discernible liquidity reaction occur when trillions of tokens actually hit exchanges. That does not appear. Volume continues to be unremarkable. Price does not even react. Clearly, trillions of new sell-side supply are not being priced in by the market.