ETH breakout or fakeout? Traders debate whether Ether holds $4.5K

Key takeaways:

• Ether rallied near $4,500 after sweeping liquidity around $4,200.

• Spot demand fueled the rally, while futures participation stayed muted.

• A daily close above $4,500 is critical to confirm breakout momentum.

Ether (ETH) rose 3.5% on Wednesday, approaching $4,500 after sweeping liquidity near $4,200 earlier on Monday. The move coincided with a bullish divergence between the price and the relative strength index (RSI) on the four-hour chart, as well as a breakout above a two-week falling wedge formation. Both technical patterns typically point toward potential upside continuation.

For confirmation, ETH needs to secure a daily close above $4,500, a level that could open the path toward the external liquidity zone between $4,800 and $5,000.

Market commentator Jelle also acknowledged the breakout, suggesting that “price discovery awaits” for the altcoin.

However, one analyst does not view the breakout as decisive just yet. Crypto trader Popeye noted that Ether remains within a broader range. In an X post, the trader said,

Ether futures and spot activity split on momentum

ETH futures data shows a split between spot and derivatives flows. Ether futures open interest did not increase significantly during the rally, signaling limited appetite from leveraged traders. By contrast, aggregated spot volumes increased with price, while funding rates stayed close to neutral, in line with its 30-day average.

This combination suggests the move has been led by spot demand rather than futures leverage. Spot-driven rallies often indicate organic buying interest, but without futures participation, breakouts can lack durability if momentum weakens.

Related: Ether rally to $5.5K possible due to illiquid supply and bullish ETH futures signal

Altcoin volume spike on Binance

Binance recorded more than $16 billion in spot altcoin trading volume on Monday, dwarfing activity on rival exchanges. The spike has been attributed to improved macro liquidity conditions and Binance-specific incentives.

The increase contributed to a broader market rally, with Bitcoin (BTC) crossing $112,000 within two days. However, Ether flows tell a different story. Data from CryptoQuant indicates that its net taker volume on Binance remains largely negative on Wednesday, continuing the August trend of signaling persistent sell-side pressure despite wider altcoin enthusiasm.

This divergence indicates that while traders are rotating into higher-beta altcoins, ETH might not be the primary beneficiary of speculative flows at the moment.

Thus, the key technical level remains $4,500. A daily close above this threshold could confirm breakout momentum and extend gains, while failure to hold risks reaffirms the range-bound structure, possibly targeting range lows under $4,100.

Related: Price predictions 9/3: BTC, ETH, XRP, BNB, SOL, DOGE, ADA, LINK, HYPE, SUI

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.