Crypto conditions signal less likely chance of ‘major capitulation’: Lyn Alden

A significant crash for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market doesn’t look likely at this stage, according to macroeconomist Lyn Alden.

“We haven’t hit euphoric levels in this cycle; therefore, there is less of a reason to expect a kind of major capitulation,” Alden said during a recent episode of the What Bitcoin Did podcast.

“The cycle could go on for longer than people can expect, because it’s not driven by the halving, it’s driven by broader macro and interest in the asset itself,” Alden said, shutting down the idea that the four-year cycle is still intact. The sentiment mirrors comments from other crypto industry executives, such as Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan, who recently dismissed the four-year-cycle theory and said the market is likely in “for a good few years.”

Alden says market outcomes usually not as good or bad as people expect

However, not everyone agrees with Alden that a major capitulation is off the table. Vineet Budki, CEO of venture firm Sigma Capital, recently told Cointelegraph that he expects a Bitcoin (BTC) retracement of 65% to 70% in the next two years.

Alden said market outcomes rarely match the extremes investors imagine. “It’s usually not as good as people expect and it’s usually not as bad as people expect is often how these things play out,” she said.

It comes as Bitcoin has been in a downtrend since reaching new all-time highs of $125,100 on Oct. 5, dropping to as low as $80,700 on Thursday before recovering slightly to $85,710 at the time of publication, according to CoinMarketCap.

Market sentiment has also fallen, as many traders were expecting year-end strength and even new highs, with some, like BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, calling for a move toward $250,000.

Alden says, “No one is owed a bull market”

Bitcoin’s recent price plunge has traders obsessing over when the next uptrend will begin, but Alden said investors need to stop treating bull cycles like they’re guaranteed.

“People kind of get in their mindset where they are owed a bull market,” Alden said. “No one is owed a bull market,” she said.

Alden expects Bitcoin to reclaim the $100,000 level in 2026 and to either set new all-time highs that year or, if not, in 2027.

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Dogecoin Goes Wall Street: Grayscale Confirms Nov. 24 ETF Launch

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Grayscale Investments will list spot ETFs for Dogecoin and XRP on the NYSE Arca on November 24, 2025, offering a new way for everyday investors to buy those coins through regular brokerages.

According to exchange notices and regulatory filings, the funds will trade under the tickers GDOG for Dogecoin and GXRP for XRP. The listings convert Grayscale’s existing private-placement trusts into publicly traded products.

Grayscale Moves To List Dogecoin And XRP

Reports have disclosed that both ETFs received approval to be listed, and the paperwork was filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

The move brings spot exposure to two smaller, but widely followed, cryptocurrencies into a mainstream vehicle. For many investors, that means access without directly managing wallets or private keys.

Eric Balchunas
@EricBalchunas
Grayscale Dogecoin ETF $GDOG approved for listing on NYSE, scheduled to begin trading Monday. Their XRP spot is also launching on Monday. $GLNK coming soon as well, week after I think pic.twitter.com/c6nKUeDrtI
Nov 21, 2025

Market Activity Up Ahead Of Launch

Trading activity in related derivatives climbed in the lead up to the announcement. Dogecoin derivatives volume increased by more than 30% to roughly $7.22 billion, based on exchange data.

XRP derivatives surged as well, jumping about 51% to around $12.74 billion. Based on reports, these spikes reflect traders positioning for potential price swings around the ETF debut.

Spot ETFs do not promise higher prices, but they do change who can buy the assets. Brokers, retirement plans, and funds that avoid direct crypto custody may now step in.

That could affect liquidity in both the tokens and their markets. At the same time, the overall crypto market has seen pressure; reports say the launches come during a roughly six-week downturn.

Questions Remain Over Demand And Flows

Product fees, custody details, and how the trusts convert into ETF shares will shape investor appetite. Past launches of crypto ETFs showed brisk early flows for some products, while others saw muted interest. What matters for prices is not only listings, but inflows and outflows once trading begins.

Investors and analysts are likely to watch the first days of trading for clues. High volume and tight spreads would suggest strong demand. Low turnover or wide spreads could signal tepid interest.

Based on reports, market participants will also monitor whether the ETFs draw the same sort of speculative trading that has driven derivatives volume in recent days.

The listing of both GDOG and GXRP on the same date marks a notable step for mainstream crypto products. According to exchange filings, the funds are structured as spot ETFs that hold the underlying tokens via custodians. While that does not remove price risk, it does make buying these assets simpler for a broad group of investors.

Featured image from Gemini, chart from TradingView

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BlackRock’s Bitcoin clients aren’t ‘underwriting’ the case for global payments

Cointelegraph

BlackRock’s head of digital assets, Robbie Mitchnick, said that most of the world’s largest asset managers’ clients aren’t considering Bitcoin’s use for daily payments when deciding whether to invest in the asset.

“I think for us, and most of our clients today, they’re not really underwriting to that global payment network case,” Mitchnick said during a podcast interview published to YouTube on Friday.

“That’s sort of maybe out-of-the-money-option-value upside,” Mitchnick said.

He said this doesn’t mean Bitcoin (BTC) won’t eventually achieve widespread use in payments, but he called that scenario “a little bit more speculative,” stressing that investors are far more focused on the “digital gold” or store-of-value thesis.

“A lot needs to happen” for that to change, says Mitchnick

“There’s a lot that needs to happen in terms of Bitcoin scaling, Lightning, and otherwise to make that possible,” he said. In August 2024, Galaxy Research suggested that most Bitcoin layer-2 scaling networks, particularly “rollups” may not be sustainable in the long term despite their popularity as a promising method to keep Bitcoin payments cheap, fast and decentralized.

Meanwhile, Mitchnick said that stablecoins have been “hugely successful” in the payments sector. “They do have massive product market fit as a payment instrument as a way of moving value around efficiently,” he said.

“Stablecoins have the potential to greatly expand where they are used today, going beyond just the sort of crypto trading ecosystem and DeFi to actually doing retail remittance payments, corporate, multinational, cross-border transactions, and capital market settlement activity,” he said.

He said Bitcoin has a better chance of competing in retail remittance payments than in other areas, but isn’t ruling anything out. “At some point it is possible, but it’s a more speculative thing to underwrite at this point,” he said.

Stablecoins are ‘scaling faster’ than expected

ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood recently stated that stablecoins “scaling faster” than expected is the reason for her recent lowering her 2030 Bitcoin price prediction.

“Stablecoins are usurping part of the role that we thought that Bitcoin would play,” she said.

Wood explained that she previously projected Bitcoin could reach $1.5 million by 2030, but with stablecoins now serving many of the use cases she thought Bitcoin would dominate, she said it may make sense to trim that forecast by about $300,000.

“I think emerging markets are huge in this regard and we’re starting to see institutions in the United States focused on new payment rails,” she said.

Tether co-founder Reeve Collins told Cointelegraph in September that he expects “all currency” to become stablecoins by 2030 as part of a broader shift that will see all forms of finance go onchain.

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Bitcoin Block Channel Reveals $400,000 Price Target – Details

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The Bitcoin market continues to witness an intense price correction in line with broader crypto market movement. In the past week, the premier cryptocurrency recorded another 10% price decline, trading as low as $80,800, before experiencing a modest bounce.

Bitcoin now stands 32.79% below its all-time high, with distribution taking preference over accumulation for most investors. However, popular analyst Gert Van Lagen has unveiled an on-chain trend that postulates an impending revival of the bull market.

Bitcoin Historical Post-Halving Movement Indicates Bullish Hope

In an X post on November 21, Gert Van Lagen outlines a positive Bitcoin price prediction based on data from the previous post-halving movement. The renowned analyst explains this forecast, using a long-term logarithmic chart of Bitcoin’s price vs Bitcoin block height, which highlights a regression channel the digital asset has followed since 2009.

According to Van Lagen, Bitcoin has followed a similar pattern after every halving, which usually begins with pushing above the midline of this long-term regression channel. Thereafter, the premier cryptocurrency accelerates into a blow-off top (orange spikes) at the channel’s upper boundary as seen in 2013, 2017, and 2021.

For all its price exploits in the present market cycle, Bitcoin presently trades just below the midline of the regression channel, suggesting there is ample space for price appreciation. However, Van Lagen notes some unusual price behavior in that Bitcoin has experienced rejection thrice at this midline, each time resulting in a bounce off the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement line.

Nevertheless, the analyst still expects the premier cryptocurrency to maintain the 15-year historical trend and eventually secure a decisive move above the midline resistance. If this price development occurs, Van Lagen also predicts Bitcoin to rise to around $350,000 – $400,000, a price range target that aligns with the upper boundary of the regression channel.

The ‘Genuine’ Bearish Market

Despite the heightened fears of a bearish market at the moment, Van Lagen explains that the much-dreaded crypto winter only commences after Bitcoin reaches its upper boundary target, establishing a market top. Based on the presented analysis, the market expert predicts Bitcoin will crash from this market peak to retest the 210,000 block SMA, i.e, the lower trend line of the regression channel.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is valued at $84,300 after a 2.36% price loss in the past day. In the last month, the crypto market leader has experienced a 21.96% price devaluation, suggesting a rather volatile and cautious market condition.

Featured image from Pexels, chart from Tradingview

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Bitcoin $200K soon or 2029? Scott Bessent hangs at Bitcoin bar: Hodler’s Digest, Nov. 16 – 22

Cointelegraph

Top Stories of The Week

Bitcoiners lose their mind after Scott Bessent walks into a Bitcoin bar

The Bitcoin community lit up on Thursday after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent made an unannounced appearance at the launch of Washingtons new Bitcoin-themed bar, Pubkey.

Having the Secretary of the Treasury at the Pubkey DC launch seems like a moment I could easily look back on and say wow, it was all so obvious, Bitcoin treasury company Strives chief investment officer Ben Werkman said in an X post on Thursday.

Steven Lubka, Nakamotos vice president of investor relations, called it the sign you have been waiting for.

Many other prominent Bitcoiners, including Bitcoin analyst Fred Krueger, Gemini chief of staff Jeff Tiller, Bitcoin podcaster Natalie Brunell, and Bitcoin Policy Institute co-founder David Zell, also viewed Bessents appearance as a hugely positive sign for Bitcoin.

Indias government may consider stablecoin framework, diverging from RBI

The government of India may consider stablecoin regulations in its Economic Survey 2025-2026, while the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) takes a cautious approach to crypto and pushes for a central bank digital currency, revealing a divergence in policy recommendations.

The government will present its case for stablecoins in the annual report published by Indias Ministry of Finance, which outlines key policy recommendations and the state of the economy, business publication Moneycontrol reported, citing an official familiar with the matter.

However, the central bank continues to urge a cautious approach to stablecoins, according to RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra, speaking at the Delhi School of Economics on Thursday.

Bitcoin hits most bearish levels: Is the bull cycle ending?

Bitcoin is entering bearish territory as institutional demand dries up and key market indicators point to a downward phase, according to data from analytics platform CryptoQuant.

Bitcoin market conditions have turned the most bearish within the current bull cycle that started in January 2023, CryptoQuant said in its latest crypto weekly report shared with Cointelegraph.

CryptoQuants Bull Score Index has declined to extreme bearish levels of 20/100, while the BTC price has fallen far below the 365-day moving average of $102,000 a key technical level and the final bearish signal marking the start of the 2022 bear market.

The price drop comes amid weakening institutional demand, including reduced buying by Bitcoin treasury firms such as Michael Saylors Strategy, along with limited inflows into exchange-traded funds.

Warning: WhatsApp worm targets Brazilian crypto wallets, bank accounts

Brazilian crypto holders are urged to be on the lookout for a sophisticated hacking campaign that includes a hijacking worm and banking trojan shared via WhatsApp messages.

According to a new report from Trustwaves cybersecurity research team SpiderLabs, the banking trojan, known as Eternidade Stealer is being pushed via social engineering on messaging application WhatsApp such as fake government programs, delivery notifications, messages from friends and fraudulent investment groups.

WhatsApp continues to be one of the most exploited communication channels in Brazils cybercrime ecosystem. Over the past two years, threat actors have refined their tactics, using the platforms immense popularity to distribute banker trojans and information-stealing malware, said Spiderlabs researchers Nathaniel Morales, John Basmayor and Nikita Kazymirskyi.

Ex-Coinbase lawyer announces run for New York Attorney General, citing crypto policy

Khurram Dara, a former policy lawyer at cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase, officially launched his campaign for New York State Attorney General.

In a Friday notice, Dara cited his regulatory and policy experience, particularly in the crypto and fintech space among his reasons to try to unseat Attorney General Letitia James in 2026.

The former Coinbase lawyer had been hinting since August at potential plans to run for office, claiming that James had engaged in lawfare against the crypto industry in New York.

Until July, Dara was the regulatory and policy principal at Bain Capital Crypto, the digital asset arm of the investment company. According to his LinkedIn profile, he worked as Coinbases policy counsel from June 2022 to January 2023 and was previously employed at the crypto companies Fluidity and AirSwap.

Winners and Losers

At the end of the week, Bitcoin (BTC) is at $84,785, Ether (ETH) at $2,753 and XRP at $1.95. The total market cap is at $2.90 trillion, according to CoinMarketCap.

Among the biggest 100 cryptocurrencies, the top three altcoin gainers of the week are Starknet (STRK) at 24.86%, Aster (ASTER) at 12.01% and MYX Finance (MYX) at 9.06%.

The top three altcoin losers of the week are Canton (CC) at 28.34%, Morpho (MORPHO) at 26.38% and Story (IP) at 25.55%. For more info on crypto prices, make sure to read Cointelegraphs market analysis.

Top Prediction of The Week

Bitcoin wont hit $200K until Q3 2029: Veteran trader Peter Brandt

Veteran trader Peter Brandt said he doesnt see Bitcoin reaching $200,000 before the end of the year as some crypto executives have predicted. In fact, he argues it may take nearly four more years to get there.

The next bull market in Bitcoin should take us to $200,000 or so. That should be in around Q3 2029, Brandt said in an X post on Thursday, while emphasizing that he is a long-term bull on Bitcoin.

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Brandts forecast stands out for several reasons. Many prominent Bitcoin advocates, such as BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes and BitMine chair Tom Lee, had expected at least $200,000 by the end of this year. Lee and Hayes even reiterated their confidence in the prediction as recently as October.

Brandts projection also significantly contrasts with the bullish targets from crypto executives such as Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and ARK Invests Cathie Wood, who both anticipate $1 million Bitcoin by 2030, just one quarter later than Brandt expects the price to be roughly five times lower.

Top FUD of The Week

Ex-prosecutor denies promising not to charge FTX executives partner

Danielle Sassoon, one of the US attorneys behind the prosecution of former FTX CEO Sam SBF Bankman-Fried, took the stand in an evidentiary hearing involving a deal with one of the companys executives.

In a Thursday hearing in the US District Court for the Southern District of New York, Sassoon testified about the guilty plea of Ryan Salame, the former co-CEO of FTX Digital Markets, which resulted in his sentencing to more than seven years in prison.

According to reporting from Inner City Press, Sassoon said that her team would probably not continue to investigate [Salames] conduct if he agreed to plead guilty. Further investigation into the former FTX executive and his then-girlfriend, Michelle Bond, resulted in the latter facing campaign finance charges.

Advocacy groups urge Trump to intervene in the Roman Storm retrial

More than 65 cryptocurrency and blockchain companies and advocacy groups have called on US President Donald Trump to step in as federal prosecutors may be preparing to retry Tornado Cash co-founder and developer Roman Storm.

Read also Features Can blockchain solve its oracle problem? Features Off The Grids success shows invisible blockchain is the winning play

In a letter to Trump dated Thursday and shared with Cointelegraph, advocacy organizations including the Solana Policy Institute, Blockchain Association and DeFi Education Fund, among others, made several requests regarding crypto-related policies.

The groups asked Trump to direct the IRS and US Treasury to clarify tax policy on digital assets, protect DeFi from regulators and encourage regulatory clarity through financial regulators like the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

US wont start Bitcoin reserve until other countries do: Mike Alfred

The US government is unlikely to start accumulating Bitcoin for its strategic reserve until other nations make the first move, says crypto entrepreneur Mike Alfred.

Alfred said in a podcast published on Tuesday that the US government will start putting Bitcoin into its reserve created earlier this year when there is enough pressure externally.

Once the US government recognizes that others are taking action before them, thatll probably catalyze additional action in the future, he said, adding that the timeline for the US governments action is up in the air.

Top Magazine Stories of The Week

Ethereums Fusaka fork explained for dummies: What the hell is PeerDAS?

If you dont know the difference between PeerDAS and a precompile, Magazine is here to help.

Bitcoin whale Metaplanet underwater but eyeing more BTC: Asia Express

Metaplanet will raise $135M to buy more Bitcoin while its on sale; around 61% of Singaporean retail investors now hold crypto.

Musks AI in space plan, vending machine calls in FBI over $2 fee: AI Eye

One in five Base txs are now generated by AI Agents, and Anthropic employees keep scamming their AI vending machine.

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Crypto ATM operator considers $100 million sale, days after founder’s $10 million money laundering charge

The Block

Crypto ATM operator Crypto Dispensers said on Friday it is considering a $100 million sale offer, mere days after its founder and CEO, Firas Isa, was charged by federal prosecutors in connection with an alleged $10 million money laundering scheme.

In a press release issued Nov. 21, the company stated it has retained advisors to support a "strategic review" and potential sale. The release highlighted the company's 2020 pivot from physical Bitcoin ATMs to a software-first model, a move the company claimed was designed to address "rising fraud exposure, regulatory pressure, and compliance demands."

Those same issues are central to the criminal case currently facing the firm.

On Tuesday, the Department of Justice announced that Isa and Virtual Assets LLC, which does business as Crypto Dispensers, were charged with one count of conspiracy to commit money laundering. As The Block previously reported, the indictment alleges that between 2018 and 2025, Isa knowingly accepted millions of dollars in proceeds from wire fraud and narcotics trafficking through the company’s ATM network.

Prosecutors allege Isa arranged for the illicit funds to be converted into cryptocurrency and transferred to wallets that concealed their source. Isa has pleaded not guilty to the charges and faces a maximum sentence of 20 years in prison if convicted. Isa previously said Crypto Dispensers was "built on compliance from day one" in a statement emailed to The Block.

In the Friday announcement, Isa did not address the indictment but framed the company’s history as a successful transition away from hardware limitations. "Hardware showed us the ceiling. Software showed us the scale," Isa said in the statement. "This review is about understanding the next stage of growth and determining which path creates the most value for the platform we have built."

Crypto Dispensers did not immediately respond to a request for further comment from The Block regarding how the pending criminal charges might impact a potential sale, and whether or not it has a buyer lined up.

Disclaimer: The Block is an independent media outlet that delivers news, research, and data. As of November 2023, Foresight Ventures is a majority investor of The Block. Foresight Ventures invests in other companies in the crypto space. Crypto exchange Bitget is an anchor LP for Foresight Ventures. The Block continues to operate independently to deliver objective, impactful, and timely information about the crypto industry. Here are our current financial disclosures.

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Bitcoin Hits Major Inflection Point As Rising Wedge Breaks

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