China’s stock market has been on a roll — is it a boom or a bubble?

Stocks

Summary:

China’s stock market is up 16% in 2025 on AI progress, chip self-sufficiency, and policy support. Analysts see momentum fueled by retail investors, but warn valuations outpace weak economic fundamentals, raising bubble risks.

China’s stock market has seen a sharp rally this year as progress on artificial-intelligence, steps aimed at gaining chip self-sufficiency and Beijing’s campaign to rein in price wars fuel investor optimism.

But as retail investors push the market higher, and bulls cheer liquidity support and policy tailwinds, some experts are raising questions if the market is entering bubble territory.

The mainland CSI 300 index has climbed about 16% since the start of the year and is hovering close to more than three-year highs. The CSI 300 Information Technology Index, which measures the performance of tech companies within the CSI 300, last week hit its highest level since 2015.

“China’s ongoing equity rally appears disconnected with the economic fundamentals,” said Raymond Cheng, regional CIO for North Asia at Standard Chartered, adding that “retail investors have played a key role as they have been shifting some of their bank deposits into equity markets.”

Retail investors dominate China’s onshore stock markets, accounting for around 90% of daily trading, according to HSBC data. That’s a sharp contrast with major global exchanges, where institutions lead activity — on the New York Stock Exchange, for example, individual investors make up only 20%–25% of trading volume.

Total Chinese household savings currently stand at more than 160 trillion yuan ($22 trillion), a record high, according to HSBC. However, only 5% is allocated to equities, which means there is room for retail participation to deepen, especially as deposit rates fall and property remains out of favor, analysts told CNBC.

Fundamentals vs. momentum

“Fundamentals do not well support the momentum, but markets always lead fundamentals,” said Hao Hong, managing partner and CIO at Lotus Asset Management. “There are few signs of overheating in the overall market, but pockets of the market are a little too hot.”

“This is not yet a bubble, but it is going that way,” said Hong. He pointed to contract research organizations — firms providing research and development services to pharma, biotech, medical device companies — and technology names as the riskiest segments, but stopped short of labeling them as bubbles.

More than $3 trillion in market capitalization has been added across Chinese and Hong Kong equities this year, according to Goldman Sachs. But China’s economic data offers little confirmation that a genuine and sustainable rebound is underway, market watchers said.

Japanese financial holdings company Nomura last month warned of excessive leverage and potential “bubbles” as the stock market continues to surge even as China’s economy shows signs of sputtering in the second half of the year.

China’s economic slowdown worsened in August as a series of key indicators fell short of expectations. Persistent weak domestic demand and Beijing’s efforts to reduce industrial overcapacity weighed on production.

Industrial output rose 5.2% last month, easing from July’s 5.7% growth and marking its weakest pace since August 2024. Retail sales grew 3.4% year on year, below analysts’ forecast of 3.9% in a Reuters survey and slower than July’s 3.7% growth.

“So far, we have not seen signs of a turnaround in macro fundamentals, although the current momentum might be supported by expectations for structural improvements in the economy,” said Chaoping Zhu, global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

Semi-annual reports suggest some stabilization in sectors such as AI, semiconductors and renewables, and Beijing’s “anti-involution” push — aimed at reining in price wars — could improve corporate earnings capacity, Zhu said.

For example, Chinese chipmaker Cambricon reported record profits in the first half of the year, jumping more than 4,000% year on year to 2.88 billion yuan ($402.7 million) in the first six months, highlighting the growing momentum of domestic chip companies as Beijing pushes to strengthen its homegrown semiconductor sector.

Still, Zhu cautions that technology valuations may have “priced in very optimistic expectations,” leaving the market vulnerable to pulling back before earnings catch up.

Source: cnbc

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Michelle

Economic

Forex

Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden said there is still scope to cut interest rates further, predicting price pressures from the services sector and wages will continue to ease.

Ramsden said on Monday that the risks for prices are “balanced” and that he remains confident that the central bank can bring inflation back to its 2% target with the current policy settings.

“I see scope for further removal of policy restraint looking ahead,” he said on a panel at a European Central Bank conference. “The gradual and careful approach that the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) has taken to removing policy restraint remains appropriate.”

Ramsden struck a more dovish tone than many of his colleagues in recent remarks, suggesting that he could still back another rate cut at the next meeting in November. While the UK central bank has maintained a once-a-quarter cutting cycle since August 2024, it is expected to slow that pace and traders see little prospect of a move in November.

Policymakers have turned more cautious following a spike in inflation to almost double the BOE’s target. They are especially concerned about rising household expectations at a time of surging food bills, given that grocery bills are particularly “salient” for consumers. Ramsden acknowledged that some of his colleagues do not share his confidence that wage growth will continue to subside to levels consistent with the 2% inflation target.

He said he is putting “a bit more weight on the risk” that the food price shocks lead to second-round effects and has been surprised by “how long it’s taken for that wage-setting behavior to come back in line.” However, he said that the underlying causes of the inflation spike — a combination of regulated price increases such as water bills, global drivers and the Labour government’s tax hikes — are unlikely to be seen again.

“If you assume that these various regulated and other price rises are not repeated this year, which I think is a fair assumption, we should see headline services inflation starting to come down much more materially,” he said. “That will be supported by the fact that underlying services inflation continues, when you look at high-frequency measures, to be on a disinflationary path.”

Ramsden also pointed to positive signs on taming wage pressures, saying that a previous BOE pay survey pointing to pay settlements of around 3.7% by the end of the year is “on track.”

“Those are also then pointing to settlements being lower, so closer to 3% further out into next year, which will be getting down to target-consistent rates,” he said.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Adam

Economic

It's hard to believe, but we've made it almost seven years without a government shutdown. That shutdown happened during President Trump's first term. And it was the longest in US history.

Ever since, throughout the rest of Trump's first term and under former President Joe Biden, we've been in a perennial state of "will they, won't they?" For the most part, investors and the market have become desensitized to the drama after a string of last-minute compromises to avert the self-inflicted wound.

But we're here to tell you that this time really could be different. It will (again, probably) actually matter, even with the usual caveats: Past shutdowns have represented a modest hit to economic growth, and little if any longer-term pain for markets, which rightfully don't typically care.

The first reason it will matter is that — stop us if you've heard this before — it looks all but certain to happen. The government will enter a partial shutdown just after midnight on Wednesday, Oct. 1, and both Trump/Republicans and Democrats are digging in on their respective positions. Moreover, as Yahoo Finance's Ben Werschkul has outlined, both parties see some political upside.

Democrats are holding firm on a demand to include an extension of expiring healthcare subsidies, in an attempt to head off a surge in Obamacare-related insurance premiums.

Trump initially appeared open to negotiations with Democratic leaders this week, then abruptly scrapped a planned White House meeting. The discussions are now back on, with the top four congressional members from both sides set to meet the president on Monday at the White House.

In the meantime, the Trump administration has upped the ante by making good on a threat Democrats were concerned about earlier this year: The White House, in a memo, asked federal agencies to explore mass firings if the government shuts down, particularly in programs deemed "not consistent with the President’s priorities."

That raises the stakes — not only for Trump's continued bid to reshape the government in his image, but for the US labor market as a whole. The federal workforce has been shrinking this year, part of a broader slowdown in the jobs market.

And the shutdown could also mean we don't find out whether that slowdown has continued — or whether inflation continues to pick up steam.

Yes, the Bureau of Labor Statistics — already facing its own headwinds — would likely delay or altogether halt the release of key data like the jobs report, the Consumer Price Index, and the Producer Price Index. That could mean the Federal Reserve is "flying blind" in a "data desert," as Nomura research analysts put it, ahead of its next meeting at the end of October.

At such a precarious time, the possibility of the Fed having to set policy without fresh readings on jobs or inflation underscores how unusual, and risky, this standoff could be.

Turning the wheel left in the dark without headlights obviously raises the possibility for an unpleasant surprise down the road. But counterintuitively, it could lower the uncertainty in the near term — as no data would mean sticking to the current roadmap.

"The bar is high for the Fed to disregard its own Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and keep rates unchanged or cut by 50bp in October," the Nomura team wrote. "A shutdown would make following the SEP even more likely, as it would deprive the Fed of a potential rationale for not cutting in line with it."

If that happened, you'd be able to hear the collective market drumroll when the data spigot comes back on, illuminating the road once again. And perhaps a sigh of relief if we're on it.

Source : finance.yahoo

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Adam

Economic

Actual technology sector earnings were pretty strong for Q2 ’25: on July 3rd, ’25, the expected EPS growth for the tech sector was +17.7%, but the actual EPS growth for the sector is now +25.0%, for an upside surprise of 730 bps. That’s the strongest upside beat since Q1 ’24’s 610 bps for the tech sector, and puts a lance through my worries that spurred this article in early July ’25.

S&P 500 Earnings: Tech EPS Expectations Point to Strong Q3 Results_1

The above table, cut-and-pasted from LSEG’s “This Week in Earnings,” shows 4 sectors that have improved or seen positive revisions to the expected EPS growth for the sector for Q3 ’25:

Consumer Discretionary;

Energy;

Financials;

Technology;

Consumer discretionary, dominated by Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), will also see Nike (NYSE:NKE) report their fiscal Q1 ’26 earnings this week, 9/30. Nike is a member of the consumer discretionary sector. Where is the upward pressure coming from for the consumer discretionary sector? _ That’s typically addressed in the pre-earnings previews.

Energy saw a sharp improvement in the expected EPS growth rate for Q3 ’25, although it’s still negative.

Financials: it’s hard to imagine a better combination of tail winds for financial stocks coming into Q3 ’25: tight credit spreads in the public credit markets, continued low losses and charge-offs reported for the big banks consumer credit card operations, housing is slower but mortgages saw a burst of re-financings in the last month, the investment banking businesses for equity and debt should be healthy, the asset management businesses should also be healthy, etc.

Normal expected EPS growth for the financial sector is usually mid-single-digits, so the starting point of 14% for Q3 ’25 EPS growth for financials implies some confidence by analysts that the numbers will be there. What’s probably helped financials is that loan losses were increased in 2022 as the Fed was raising rates, given all the recession forecasts that proliferated at that time, which means that loan loss reserves will be less as the sector moves forward.

The tech sector’s expected EPS growth rate has been revised higher by 730 bps since July 1, ’25. That’s a strong trend. Expected EPS growth for the tech sector in Q3 ’25 is +25%, which is a very high bar for the sector, since Q2 ’25 EPS growth for tech was +25%. The only quarter where the tech sector saw faster EPS growth (outside of the COVID period from 2020 to 2021) was Q2 ’24, when technology EPS grew +27%.

Are we potentially looking at peak tech EPS? Remember. the capex spending does NOT impact EPS, i.e., capex is not run through the income statement, but capex DOES impact valuation, and the capex line is found on the statement of cash flow, under the “investing” section. Capex impacts valuation since higher capex – like the AI spend – reduces free-cash-flow (FCF), and lower FCF – ceteris paribus – lowers the valuation.

Analysts can play with it and maintain the intrinsic value estimate, but I think it would require adjusting (i.e., lowering) the discount rate. Here’s an article from a little over a year ago, that tried to address this issue.)

Readers should be reminded that – while the typical pattern for EPS estimates coming into a quarter’s report is to see negative or downward revisions – the stock and sectors that see positive or upward revisions are usually more telling since the analysts typically get reluctant to boost EPS and revenue estimates in front of a report.

Here’s a little history on the technology sector earnings (EPS) growth:

q4 ’11 – q4 ’19: The tech sector’s average EPS growth rate over this time period was +10.8%. The peak growth rates of 28% – 30% occurred after the Tax Cuts & Jobs Act (TCJA) was signed in December ’17, which allowed companies like Microsoft, Oracle, Apple, and others to repatriate cash from foreign countries held abroad due to tax issues.

The TCJA repealed that tax hit on funds held abroad, and billions of dollars came home for share repurchases, capital investment, etc.

Q1 ’20 – Q4 ’22: The average tech sector EPS growth during the COVID-influenced period was +19.09%, with peak quarters of 45% – 50% which lapped Q1 and Q2 ’20, or the quarters with the biggest hit to tech sector earnings from COVID.

Q1 ’23 – Q2 ’25: The average tech sector EPS growth was +16.7% over this period, but it’s somewhat distorted by Q1 ’23’s -8.3% growth rate. Removing this only negative quarter results in an average of +19.5% for the tech sector. Three of the last 7 quarters have seen the tech sector report 24% or better in terms of EPS growth, and Q2’25 was +25%.

Conclusion

The bearishness around AI and the tech sector seems to have increased markedly over the last month. Technology EPS growth is near or nearing peak levels from any point in the last 15 years or the post-financial crisis. Is a 15% tech sector EPS growth rate going forward going to result in sharp selling within tech ? When the large-cap growth and technology sector bubble popped in March 2000, tech sector earnings were negative for 2 – 3 years.

The AI buildout is a juggernaut: it will change technology permanently. My biggest worry within the sector is the seeming disparity between rising EPS growth and rising (and record) capex, which – for investors with a valuation background – presents a rather unusual conundrum. Rising earnings, revenue, and cash flow are good and typically result in rising valuations, while sharply increasing capex and falling free cash flow should (maybe) force lower valuations in a sector.

This requires another article before Q3 ’25 earnings start, just to address the issue.

For now, investors should enjoy the run, and if historical earnings patterns mean anything, Q3 ’25 should result in a fairly supportive platform for S&P 500 stocks.

Disclaimer: None of this is advice or a recommendation but only an opinion. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All SP 500 EPS data is sourced from LSEG.com. None of the above data may be updated and if updated may not be done in a timely manner.

Source: investing

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Glendon

Economic

U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday said details were forthcoming on tariffs for furniture imports, after announcing levies of up to 50% on such goods last week.

"I will be imposing substantial Tariffs on any Country that does not make its furniture in the United States. Details to follow," Trump said in a social media post, noting lost business in North Carolina.

Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported kitchen cabinets and vanities, along with a 30% levy on upholstered furniture, which are set to take effect on October 1.

The import duties will make it more challenging for companies to hold down prices, while executives in the industry have raised concerns over the lack of manufacturing capacity in the United States, as the country relies heavily on imports from China, Mexico and Vietnam.

Chief executives at Williams-Sonoma and RH, formerly known as Restoration Hardware, have both raised concerns about higher tariffs in recent earnings calls.

Prices for everything from clothes to TVs have gone up in recent months as manufacturers and retailers struggle with the ever-changing tariff environment while also trying to offset rising commodity and supply-chain costs.

Source: Reuters

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FXOpen

Economic

Cryptocurrency

Stocks

Forex

Commodity

An ascending triangle is a chart pattern traders rely on to identify potential breakouts and further price movements. Recognised for its versatility, this pattern can signal trend continuations across all types of markets, including stocks, forex, commodities, and cryptocurrencies*. In this article, we’ll break down how to spot and trade this formation.

What Is an Ascending Triangle?

An ascending or rising triangle is a bullish chart pattern that usually signals a trend continuation. It is framed by two trendlines. The upper line connects highs placed at almost the same level, while the lower line is angled and connects higher lows.The triangle’s appearance is explained as follows: buyers try to push the price up, but they meet a strong resistance level, so the price rebounds. Still, buyers have strength, which is reflected in higher lows. Therefore, they continue pushing the price until it breaks above the resistance level. The period during which the price bounces back and forth between the two lines depends on the timeframe. On daily charts, the triangle can be in place for over a week.

Note: The ascending triangle is a continuation chart pattern but sometimes it can be used as a reversal signal. It happens when the ascending triangle occurs in a downtrend. It’s the biggest challenge of all the triangles.The rising triangle is one of the setups in the triangle group. There are also descending and symmetrical formations.

Ascending, Descending, and Symmetrical Triangles: The Differences

The triangle group of patterns comprises ascending, descending, and symmetrical formations.The ascending triangle is a bullish formation and the descending triangle is bearish. At the same time, the symmetrical triangle is a bilateral setup that signals a rise and a fall in the price.To distinguish between them, traders draw trendlines. In a rising triangle pattern, an upper trendline is horizontal and connects equal or almost equal highs, while the lower trendline is rising as it connects higher lows. In a descending or falling triangle pattern, the lower trendline is horizontal and connects equal or almost equal lows, while the upper trendline declines, going through lower highs. A symmetrical triangle has a falling upper line that connects lower highs and a rising lower line that connects upper lows.

How Traders Spot the Ascending Triangle

It’s quite easy to identify the formation on a chart. Still, there are a few rules that may help a trader determine its strength.

● The trend strength. Although the setup may appear on any timeframe, traders look for strong long-term trends as risks of a fakeout on low charts are higher.

● Consolidation. Triangles appear when the market consolidates within an overall trend.

● Trendlines. Trendlines must be drawn through at least two points. Still, the larger the number of points, the higher the possibility the setup works.

● Breakout. Can the ascending triangle pattern be bearish? No. It is a bullish formation that appears in a bullish and a bearish trend but always signals a potential price rise.

How Can You Trade Ascending Triangles?

The rising triangle pattern is usually considered a continuation setup formed in an uptrend. Still, if the ascending triangle is in a downtrend, it may signal a trend reversal. The trading rules will be the same in both cases.

As with most chart patterns, triangles have specific rules that help traders place entry and exit points.

Entry

The theory suggests trades go long when the price breaks above the setup's upper boundary. In a conservative approach, traders wait for the price to form at least several candles before entering the market. In a risky strategy, traders open a position as soon as the breakout occurs, and the breakout candlestick closes.

It's worth considering trading volumes as breakouts often turn into fakeouts, meaning the market returns to its previous trend. The chance of a strong breakout is higher if the volumes are high.However, increased volumes aren't the only tool used to confirm a breakout. Many traders consider trend indicators and oscillators to potentially limit the risks of bad trading decisions.

● If the triangle serves as a continuation setup, it may be helpful to look at the signals of trend-strength indicators, including the average directional index.

● If traders use the ascending triangle as a reversal setup, they usually implement indicators that may signal a trend reversal, including the moving average, the relative strength index, the moving average convergence divergence, and the stochastic oscillator.

Take Profit

A standard take-profit target equals the size of the largest part of the setup and is measured just from the breakout trendline.

Stop Loss

Traders consider several options when placing stop-loss levels. In a conservative approach, they implement the risk/reward ratio, which is usually 1:2 or 1:3 but depends on the trader's willingness to take risks. Also, traders utilise the upper trendline as a threshold and place the stop-loss order just under it.

Note: these are general rules. However, traders can develop their own trading strategies and adjust the pattern's parameters and rules according to their trading approach.

Ascending Triangle: Trading Example

A bullish ascending triangle pattern formed on the daily chart of the EUR/GBP pair. The price skyrocketed, and as a result, the rising triangle formed, allowing bulls to take a break. As the trend wasn’t solid, a trader could go long as soon as the breakout candle closed (1). Otherwise, the trade would fail. A take-profit target would equal the size of the triangle’s widest part (2) and be measured just from the upper trendline. A stop-loss level of 1:2 or 1:3 risk/reward ratio would work (3).

Ascending Triangle: Strategy

In this strategy, traders observe an existing bullish trend and the formation of an ascending triangle, which suggests the potential for a continuation pattern. Incorporating a short-term moving average, such as a 9-period EMA, provides dynamic support, aligning with the trendline to strengthen the setup.

Entries

● Traders typically wait for the price to break through the top trendline of the ascending triangle.

● A strong candle breaking the resistance level adds confidence, though any move above the top trendline can serve as an entry signal.

● The price should also trade above the moving average, offering additional confirmation.

● An order is often placed at the top trendline, anticipating a retracement to this level, which now acts as support.

Stop Loss

● Traders place a stop-loss below the most recent swing low within the triangle.

● For more conservative traders, the stop may be set at any prior swing low, depending on risk tolerance.

Take Profit

● Many traders aim for a risk-reward ratio of 1:2 or 1:3.

● Profits might also be taken at the next strong resistance level, aligning with the market structure.

Rising Triangle: Benefits and Drawbacks

This formation has advantages and pitfalls that traders consider when developing their strategies.

Benefits

● It can be used on any timeframe. Triangles are formed on charts of any period. Still, they might be more effective if the setup appears in a solid trend on a high timeframe.

● It can be used for any asset. Another advantage is that the ascending triangle pattern is used for stock, commodity, cryptocurrency*, and Forex trading.

● Easy to spot. A trader only needs to draw two trendlines to define this setup on the chart.

● Exact entry and exit points. Although traders can develop their entry and exit points, the setup assumes there are specific rules traders with any experience utilise.

Drawbacks

● It can confuse traders. As the rising triangle is used as a reversal and continuation formation, traders with less experience may be confused with its signals.

● False breakouts. The setup works when a price breakout occurs. However, there is a high risk the breakout will appear to be a fakeout, and the price will return.

● The pattern may fail. Aside from a fakeout, there is another risk when trading with triangles. The price may break another side of the formation, and the formation will fail.

● The trading rules may not work. Although specific rules indicate where a trader should place entry and exit points, buyers may be too weak to push the price to the take-profit target.

Final Thoughts

The ascending triangle is one of the more common chart patterns traders use when trading various assets. Still, there is no 100% guarantee that it will work every time you spot it on a price chart. It's vital to remember that every signal must be confirmed with other indicators, chart patterns, and candlesticks. Also, it's a well-known fact that any trade involves risks that should be considered every time a trader enters the market. Improve your skills by practising on different assets and timeframes.

FAQ

How Do You Form an Ascending Triangle?

An ascending triangle is formed when the price action creates a series of higher lows while facing a resistance level, resulting in a horizontal upper trendline and a rising lower trendline. The price consolidates between these two lines before potentially breaking out above the resistance, signalling a bullish continuation.

Is an Ascending Triangle Bullish or Bearish?

The ascending triangle is a bullish pattern. It suggests that buyers are gaining strength as higher lows form, increasing the likelihood of a breakout above the resistance level. There is a descending triangle pattern that usually appears in a downtrend, signalling a downward movement.

How to Enter an Ascending Triangle?

According to the theory, in triangle pattern trading, it’s common to enter the market when the price breaks above the upper trendline of the triangle. In a conservative approach, traders wait for confirmation through several closing candles after the breakout. The increased volume also adds confidence to the trade.

What Is the Ascending Triangle Pattern Retest?

A retest occurs when the price breaks out of the triangle but then briefly falls back to test the former resistance level. A successful retest confirms the breakout and can provide an additional entry point.

How Long Does an Ascending Triangle Pattern Take to Form?

The formation of a bullish triangle pattern can vary based on the timeframe. On daily charts, it can take several days to weeks, while on shorter timeframes, it might form within hours.

What Is the Difference Between an Ascending Triangle and a Rising Wedge?

In comparing the ascending triangle vs. the rising wedge, it’s key to recognise that the rising wedge has converging trendlines, signalling a possible weakening trend, often leading to a bearish reversal. In contrast, an ascending triangle trading pattern typically signals a continuation of the uptrend.

Source: FXOpen

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Adam

Forex

Fundamental Overview

The USD rallied across the board last week after a slate of strong US data. The focus was mainly on Jobless Claims which beat expectations by a big margin with Initial Claims falling to the lowest level since July and Continuing Claims improving further. This triggered a hawkish repricing in interest rates expectations since the Fed started cutting rates solely due to weaker labour market data.

This means that if we continue to get stronger labour market data, the Fed could start turning more hawkish again and we might not get another cut in October, or more probably in December. Therefore, there’s still plenty of room for the US dollar to appreciate in case of strong data as the market’s pricing remains too dovish. The Fed projected 75 bps of easing by the end of 2026, while the market is still pricing 104 bps.

The greenback erased all the gains triggered by last week’s data in the meantime as we are likely experiencing a pullback after a very strong rally. Other possible reasons include the government shutdown fears and quarter-end flows.

On the EUR side, nothing has changed in the meantime. The ECB left interest rates unchanged at the last meeting as widely expected with limited forward guidance other than the usual data-dependent approach. President Lagarde made it clear that the central bank finished cutting rates after she said that growth risks are balanced and the disinflationary process was over. The ECB is not expected to adjust rates for a long time unless we get significant deviation from their inflation target.

EURUSD Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

EURUSD daily

On the daily chart, we can see that EURUSD fell further into new lows last week with the sellers targeting the major upward trendline. That’s where we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the 1.16 support to position for a rally into a new cycle high. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for downside breaks to increase the bearish bets into the 1.1392 level next.

EURUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

EURUSD 4 hour

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor downward trendline defining the bearish momentum on this timeframe. The sellers will likely lean on the trendline with a defined risk above it to position for a drop into the 1.16 support. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into the 1.1830 level next.

EURUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

EURUSD 1 hour

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor upward trendline defining the current pullback. If the price falls into it, we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into the 1.16 support. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming Catalysts

Tomorrow we get the French and German inflation reports, the US Job Openings data and the US Consumer Confidence report. On Wednesday, we have the Flash Eurozone CPI, the US ADP and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP report and the US ISM Services PMI. Keep also an eye on Fed speakers.