Bitcoin Under Pressure As Yen Carry Trade Unwind Hits Global Markets

NewsBTC

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The yen carry trade unwind has been hovering over markets lately — the kind of “plumbing” story that most people ignore right up until volatility spikes and everything suddenly feels connected. Graham Stephan put it into a Bitcoin and crypto-friendly frame yesterday.

In a Dec. 15 post, the popular YouTuber described the yen carry trade as Wall Street’s long-running “infinite money glitch” — and argued it’s breaking down just as the Fed is signaling a shift in its outlook for next year. “Wall Street found an ‘infinite money’ glitch 20 years ago. They called it the Yen Carry Trade. It just broke, right when the Fed announced its plans for next year,” Stephan wrote.

What The Yen Carry Trade Unwind Means For Bitcoin

He presented it as a straightforward trade that scaled because the size was big enough to matter. “For decades, the ‘Yen Carry Trade’ has been the secret engine behind global liquidity. The mechanics were simple enough that a child could understand them, but profitable enough to move trillions of dollars.”

Stephan then laid out the basic steps in plain English: borrow cheaply in Japan, rotate into higher-yield US assets, keep the spread. “Borrow Cheap: Investors borrowed money in Japan, where interest rates were effectively 0%… Invest Abroad: They took that ‘free money’ and bought US Treasuries paying 4-5%… Profit: They pocketed the difference without using any of their own money.”

His argument is that the setup turns toxic when the rate differential compresses and the currency leg moves the wrong way. He framed the timing as especially awkward for risk assets: Japan tightening to support the yen while the Fed eases. “Japan is finally raising rates to save its own currency right at the time when the Fed has started slashing rates. The gap between the rates is getting squeezed. The ‘free money’ isn’t free anymore.”

From there, he leaned into the mechanical consequence: when funding gets more expensive and the currency shifts, leveraged positions don’t get a long debate window — they get cut. “As Japanese rates rise, that trade flips. Investors are now being forced to sell their US assets to pay back their Yen loans. Instead of money flowing into the US markets, it is being sucked out to pay debts in Tokyo. This is a massive liquidity drain happening right under our noses.”

That’s also where his Bitcoin read comes in. Not “Bitcoin is broken,” but that Bitcoin is where risk appetite and leverage tend to show up early — and where forced selling can look brutal when it hits.

Stephan expanded on the same theme in a Substack post, pulling the Fed into the timeline more directly and warning readers to brace for turbulence. “You better get ready for a bumpy ride,” he wrote, claiming the Fed cut rates “for the third time this year,” and that the central bank “has officially ended ‘Quantitative Tightening’ and is quietly moving back toward printing money.”

He added a “pilot flying blind” angle as well, arguing the Fed cut “without any inflation data whatsoever” due to shutdown-related disruptions. He attached a specific interpretation of balance-sheet policy, too: “Finally, the most important news of the day: Quantitative Tightening (QT) is over… They even announced they will buy $40 billion of Treasuries over the next 30 days. The tightening era is dead. The ‘stimulus’ era is now being rebooted, and the money printer is being turned on.”

Taken together, his thesis ends up with Bitcoin sitting between two forces that don’t necessarily move on the same clock: a potentially sharp deleveraging impulse from carry unwinds, and a slower easing impulse if policy conditions loosen. One can hit price violently in a short window; the other can take time to express itself cleanly.

Stephan closed with a familiar Bitcoin-with-training-wheels framing: volatility is normal, drawdowns happen, and mining economics create a reference point. “Bitcoin isn’t broken. It’s just volatile, and this isn’t the first time this is happening. Statistically, Bitcoin has seen drastic crashes of 50% or more, but it has never dropped below its “electrical cost” (the cost to mine one coin), which sits around $71,000 today. If we get close to that number, history suggests it’s a strong buy zone,” he concluded.

At press time, BTC traded at $87,082.

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3 reasons why trader demand for XRP evaporated: Is $1 next?

Cointelegraph

EthereumPoW / USD Coin

XRP (XRP) is facing renewed downside pressure as derivatives activity and onchain positioning continue to weaken across December. These signals point to a market still in risk-off mode, even as price hovers near a key technical support around $2.00.

Key takeaways:

XRP futures taker buy volume on Binance has decreased by 95.7% since July, indicating a decline in demand.
XRP’s Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR) has fallen to 0.18, reflecting widespread deleveraging and reduced speculative risk.
Retail, mid-sized, and large wallets all show negative cumulative volume delta through December, confirming broad-based selling pressure.

Cryptocurrencies, XRP, Markets, Derivatives, Financial Derivatives, Price Analysis, Futures, Market Analysis, Altcoin Watch, Whale

XRP futures demand collapses as liquidity dries up

Data from CryptoQuant noted that XRP’s futures taker buy volume on Binance peaked above $5.8 billion in July but has since fallen to roughly $250 million, a decline of nearly 96%. This collapse highlighted a severe contraction in buying pressure, not just for XRP but across the broader altcoin market.

The taker buy-sell ratio has remained negative for most of this period, indicating that sellers have consistently dominated XRP derivatives flow. With liquidations accumulating and confidence still fragile after the Oct. 10 event, the lack of sustained bid-side activity suggests that downside risks remain elevated. Even ETF-related optimism has failed to materially revive demand.

XRP leveraged positions reset with strong market de-risking

Binance data shows XRP’s Estimated Leverage Ratio declining to around 0.18, one of the lowest readings of the current cycle, coinciding with price slipping from above $3.00 toward the $2.00 level. This drop suggests traders have actively reduced or closed leveraged positions, a reaction to the prolonged market dip.

While lower leverage reduces the risk of cascade liquidations, it also reflects subdued speculative interest. Such environments mark transitional phases where markets rebalance before establishing a clearer directional trend.

Related: Most crypto sectors lagged Bitcoin over past 3 months: Glassnode

Profit-taking and wallet data indicate blank order books

Glassnode senior researcher CryptoVizArt reported that on Dec. 11, a 5 to 7-year-old XRP wallet with a cost basis of $0.40 realized over $721.5 million in profit, which is a large-scale distribution event occurring as the price weakened at the $2.00 level.

Order-flow data from Hyblock Capital reinforced this bearish context. XRP’s cumulative volume delta for December is negative across all participant classes: retail wallets ($0–$10,000) at -$8.68 million, mid-sized wallets ($10,000–$100,000) at -$6.89 million, and large wallets ($100,000–$10 million) at -$34 million. The data shows consistent net selling, with no cohort exhibiting sustained buying pressure.

Overall, XRP remains in a low-demand, low-leverage environment, with data indicating consolidation or further downside unless liquidity conditions improve materially.

Related: Ripple pilots RLUSD on Ethereum L2s in multichain push

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.

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Saylor: Quantum Computing Won't Break Bitcoin

U.Today

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A recent social media post, Strategy co-founder Michael Saylor has reframed a common fear of quantum computers hacking Bitcoin into a bullish narrative. His argument relies on the technical mechanics of how Bitcoin upgrades and the economic consequences of "lost" coins.

"Quantum leap"

Quantum computers could theoretically crack the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA) that protects Bitcoin private keys. If this happens, a bad actor could derive private keys from public keys and steal funds.

However, before quantum computers become powerful enough to break ECDSA, the Bitcoin network will implement a soft fork to introduce quantum-resistant encryption (Lamport signatures or lattice-based cryptography).

Once the quantum-secure upgrade is live, active users will move their Bitcoin from vulnerable addresses to quantum-secure ones.

Lost coins cannot be moved since no one has the keys. These coins cannot be migrated to the new quantum-secure addresses.

According to Saylor, the Bitcoin network consensus would likely agree to freeze the old protocol after the migration deadline passes.

"I agree, lost coins should stay frozen. Glad to hear you'll support my BIP!" Casa's Jameson Lopp said in response to the recent post.

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AAVE Protocol Reports Impressive Fundamentals, But Price Keeps Falling: Here is Why

Coinpedia

EthereumPoW / USD Coin

The AAVE price has dropped over 3% in the past 24 hours to trade at about $185 on Tuesday, December 16, 2025. The mid-cap altcoin, with a fully diluted valuation of about $3.5 billion, has continued to signal bearish sentiment amid the protocol’s impressive fundamentals

What are the Recent Strong Fundamentals for AAVE Protocols

As Coinpedia reported, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) formally closed its investigations into the AAVE protocol. The AAVE protocol gained much-needed legal clarity after the U.S. SEC ended its investigations without recommending an enforcement action.

The closure of the SEC’s investigation into AAVE coincided with the protocol’s launch of the V4 to further explore the liquidity pool aggregation, a feature that V2 and V3 failed to explore.

As such, the AAVE protocol has gained significant traction in the global mainstream adoption. At press time, the AAVE V3 protocol had a total value locked of above $32 billion, with around $22 billion already borrowed.

The ability for any crypto user globally to borrow and lend on the AAVE protocol will now be expedited by the regulatory clarity in the United States. Moreover, the United States heavily influences other global jurisdictions in their crypto decision.

Why is AAVE Price Declining Amid a Supportive Backdrop

The main reason why AAVE price is dropping today amid supportive fundamentals is due to an ongoing risk off narrative by the wider crypto Investors.

Additionally, the AAVE price action year-to-date has been forming a horizontal consolidation with an upper border of above $355 and a lower border of around $130. The recent drop below a weekly rising logarithmic support trend further confirmed AAVE’s midterm bearish sentiment.

The midterm bearish sentiment for the AAVE price is bolstered by the weekly MACD indicator, which flashed a bearish signal. The weekly MACD and the signal lines dropped below the zero line, amid rising bearish histograms.

As such, the AAVE/USD weekly chart is likely to continue in bearish sentiment amid the end-of-year holidays. The next major support level for AAVE is around $130, which has resulted in a sudden rebound towards $355 in the subsequent weeks.

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Bybit Recognized by BeInCrypto 100 Awards as Best CEX and Among the Best Exchanges in LATAM

Chainwire

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Dubai, UAE, December 16th, 2025, Chainwire

Bybit, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, has been named Best Centralized Exchange (CEX) in the Judges’ Choice category and one of the Best Exchanges in Latin America (LATAM) at the BeInCrypto 100 Awards 2025.

The BeInCrypto 100 Awards are presented by BeInCrypto, an independent global cryptocurrency news and media platform, and recognize companies, products, and initiatives across the crypto and Web3 sector. The inaugural 2025 edition honored 100 winners across multiple categories and regional divisions, including Global, LATAM, and APAC. Winners were selected through a two-stage process combining evaluation by a panel of industry experts with community voting, highlighting projects and organizations recognized for their contribution and impact within the broader digital asset ecosystem.

Bybit’s Judges’ Choice award for Best CEX reflects its position as one of the industry’s leading global exchanges. Founded in 2018, Bybit has expanded its global footprint and now serves more than 70 million registered users worldwide. The platform offers a wide range of trading services, including spot cryptocurrency trading, derivatives markets such as futures and perpetual contracts, and copy trading tools that allow users to follow and automate strategies. Beyond traditional exchange functions, Bybit also supports Web3-related features that enable users to interact with decentralized applications and manage digital assets.

Its recognition among the best exchanges in Latin America underscores Bybit’s expanding presence in the region. In recent years, the company has increased its LATAM footprint through localized products, regional partnerships, and community engagement, aligning with the region’s growing adoption of digital assets.

The awards come as Bybit celebrates its seventh anniversary, marking a period of continued global expansion and product development.

#Bybit / #CryptoArk / #IMakeIt

About Bybit

Bybit is the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, serving a global community of over 70 million users. Founded in 2018, Bybit is redefining openness in the decentralized world by creating a simpler, open and equal ecosystem for everyone. With a strong focus on Web3, Bybit partners strategically with leading blockchain protocols to provide robust infrastructure and drive on-chain innovation. Renowned for its secure custody, diverse marketplaces, intuitive user experience, and advanced blockchain tools, Bybit bridges the gap between TradFi and DeFi, empowering builders, creators, and enthusiasts to unlock the full potential of Web3. Discover the future of decentralized finance at Bybit.com.

For more details about Bybit, please visit Bybit Press

For media inquiries, please contact: media@bybit.com

For updates, please follow: Bybit's Communities and Social Media

Contact

Head of PR

Tony Au

Bybit

media@bybit.com

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XRP Urgent Alert Issued, Critical SHIB Price Level Revealed to Bulls, Solana Volume Rockets 40% Amid Golden Cross Setup — Crypto News Digest

U.Today

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XRP Ledger Foundation issues urgent upgrade alert

XRPL node operators and developers issued crucial alert as new XRPL developments unfold.

XRP alert. The XRP Ledger Foundation has issued an urgent notice urging XRPL node operators.

In a recent tweet, the official XRP Ledger Foundation has issued an urgent upgrade alert for node operators on the XRPL following the rippled version 3.0.0 release.

According to the XRP Ledger Foundation, the XRPL v3.0.0 adds new but currently disabled amendments, including LendingProtocol, DynamicMPT and fixDelegateV1_1. These amendments are nearly code complete but not yet open for voting.

In this light, node operators are urged to upgrade ASAP to ensure service continuity. More importantly, node operators and developers are urged to test the said amendments in standalone mode to help identify bugs early and reduce activation risk once they are enabled for voting.

Consensus. The XRPL consensus model allows proposed changes to be tested safely in standalone environments before they are enabled on the live network.

An advantage of the XRP Ledger consensus mechanism is that node operators and developers can test how rippled behaves before proposed amendments are fully enabled on the production network by running their servers in stand-alone mode.

The rippled v 3.0.0 release also comes with several core ledger improvements and fix amendments. This includes a Token Escrow fix, which addresses a bug discovered in the original amendment.

SHIB downside pressure builds as liquidation levels tilt against bulls

Shiba Inu coin dropped to a level where leveraged bulls are forced out rather than being driven by hype.

SHIB price target. The level inflicting the most damage on SHIB bulls sits near $0.00777, while the level that hurts shorts is higher, around $0.0086.

According to CoinGlass, the level causing the most damage to SHIB bulls sits near $0.00777, while the level that hurts shorts is higher, near $0.0086. With the price trading around $0.00816, the downside liquidation zone is simply closer. That matters because the price often moves toward the nearest group of traders who can be forced out of the market.

Price warning. If price slides into that zone slowly, liquidation-driven selling can extend the move lower as pressure continues to build.

A drop of less than 5% can trigger long liquidations. A move up needs more than 5% and stronger buying pressure to start hurting shorts. So, the only thing evident about the Shiba Inu coin right now is an imbalance, where downside pressure is easier to activate than upside pressure.

If the price briefly dips into the $0.0077-$0.0078 zone and selling dries up quickly, weak longs are cleared and price can stabilize. That is how short-term bottoms often appear. If price slides into that zone slowly, pressure can extend lower as liquidations keep feeding selling.

Solana volume spike and golden cross signal renewed bullish momentum

Solana's price surge might be closer with skyrocketing volume and promising golden cross setup.

SOL Volume spike. Solana trading volume surged by 40%, signaling increased attention from both retail and institutional investors.

The 40% spike in Solana trading volume suggests increased network attention by both retail and institutional investors. As the SOL price showed signs of recovery, investors are gradually shifting their attention back to the coin.

After days of trading on the low, the SOL price surged 1.6% over the past 24 hours to $132.9. At the same time, technical analysis showed the formation of a golden cross, often recognized as a highly bullish pattern.

Golden cross alert. This setup suggests short-term momentum is beginning to outperform the broader trend.

Typically, a golden cross pattern occurs when a shorter-term moving average crosses above a longer-term one. This signals that short-term momentum is outpacing the long-term trend, often preceding sustained upward price movement.

A 40% trading volume accompanying this setup strengthens the signal. This is because it indicates strong buyer conviction and increased market participation. Earlier golden crosses seen on the Solana price chart this year contributed to rallies, pushing SOL toward $200 to $228 in various periods.

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SEC ends probe into Aave after four years, CEO says

Cointelegraph

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Stani Kulechov, founder and CEO of Aave, said the US Securities and Exchange Commission ended a four-year investigation into the decentralized finance platform.

In a Tuesday X post, Kulechov provided an Aug. 12 letter from the SEC saying that the agency did “not intend to recommend an enforcement action” against Aave. The text of the letter suggested that the protocol had faced a potential enforcement action by the SEC in a probe initiated about four years ago.

“We’re glad to put this behind us as we enter a new era where developers can truly build the future of finance,” said Kulechov.

Security, SEC, Policies, Investigation, Enforcement

Publicly available records on the SEC’s website do not show a Wells notice issued to Aave. The protocol had not responded to a request for comment at the time of publication.

In a statement to Cointelegraph, an SEC spokesperson said the commission “does not comment on the existence or nonexistence of a possible investigation.”

According to data from Nansen, the price of the Aave token surged more than 3% in the previous 24 hours, reaching $187.85.

The end of the investigation into Aave would be the latest SEC action softening on regulation and enforcement moves against crypto companies since the inauguration of US President Donald Trump in January.

This year, the regulator dropped many years-long investigations and cases, including those against Uniswap Labs, Gemini and Ripple.

This is a developing story, and further information will be added as it becomes available.

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