Bitcoin Signals Bear Market: One Thing Could Flip It, Says CryptoQuant CEO

Ethereum has witnessed a recovery surge recently as on-chain data shows the shark-sized investors have been participating in strong buying.

Ethereum Sharks Have Added 450,000 ETH Since Mid-November

According to data from on-chain analytics firm Santiment, the supply of the Ethereum sharks has gone up recently. The indicator of relevance here is the “Supply Distribution,” measuring the total amount of tokens that a given wallet group as a whole is holding right now.

In the context of the current topic, the cohort of focus is the one corresponding to a coin range of 1,000 to 10,000 ETH. At the current exchange rate, the lower bound of the range roughly converts to $3.2 million and the upper one to $32 million. Investors of this large size are popularly known as the sharks. While not as massive as the whales (addresses with more than 10,000 ETH), the sharks are still considered influential entities. This can make their behavior often worth keeping an eye on.

As the chart below, shared by Santiment, suggests, the latest Ethereum shark behavior has been one of accumulation.

During the November price decline, the Supply Distribution had been going down for the Ethereum sharks, but around the time of the market bottom, its trend began to reverse. Between November 18th and December 2nd, the sharks added a total of 450,000 ETH (worth about $1.4 billion) to their wallets, a massive amount. Alongside this sharp uptick in the metric, ETH went through its price recovery.

The cryptocurrency’s sharp retrace to start December didn’t dissuade these large hands, either, as their supply only continued to rise. This may be one of the factors behind the quick resumption of bullish momentum that the asset has seen. Another bullish factor has been the trend in the Network Growth, another on-chain indicator displayed in the chart. This metric measures the daily number of addresses that are coming online on the Ethereum network for the first time.

A wallet is considered “online” when it participates in transaction activity on the blockchain, so the Network Growth essentially tracks the addresses making their very first transfer.

From the graph, it’s visible that this Ethereum metric has also surged recently, hitting a peak value of 190,000 addresses. Generally, a surge in network activity is usually a positive sign for any rally’s sustainability, as it implies that the network is able to attract fresh attention.

That said, too much attention too fast can actually end up having a negative effect on the cryptocurrency. It now remains to be seen whether the sharks will continue to buy in the near future and if investor FOMO will remain at healthy levels.

ETH Price

At the time of writing, Ethereum is floating around $3,185, up more than 5% over the last seven days.

Central banks purchased a net 53 tonnes of gold in October 2025, a 36% month-over-month surge that brought the monthly total to the highest of the year.

This aggressive gold accumulation reflects growing concerns over macroeconomic uncertainty and a strategic shift away from traditional dollar-denominated assets.

Record Gold Purchases Signal Strategic Shift

According to World Gold Council data, central banks purchased a net 53 tonnes of gold in October alone—the highest monthly demand this year—led by Poland, Brazil, and emerging market economies.

Central banks acquired 254 tonnes year-to-date through October, making 2025 the fourth-highest year for gold accumulation this century. This trend highlights concerns about economic stability and currency diversification.

The National Bank of Poland led the activity, buying 16 tonnes in October. This brought Poland’s reserves to a record 531 tonnes, or about 26% of its total foreign exchange reserves. Brazil also bought 16 tonnes, while Uzbekistan added 9 tonnes and Indonesia acquired 4 tonnes. Turkey, the Czech Republic, and the Kyrgyz Republic expanded by 2 to 3 tonnes each. Meanwhile, Ghana, China, Kazakhstan, and the Philippines increased holdings, and Russia reduced its reserves by 3 tonnes to 2,327 tonnes.

95% of surveyed central banks expect reserves to climb next year. Serbia plans to nearly double its gold reserves to 100 tonnes by 2030, while Madagascar and South Korea are considering similar expansion. The sustained demand remains despite high gold prices, emphasizing gold’s strategic importance in uncertain times.

United States Establishes Bitcoin as National Reserve Asset

The trend is now spilling over into digital assets. As sovereign institutions diversify their reserves, Bitcoin is increasingly entering the conversation as a potential complement to gold.

In the United States, Senator Cynthia Lummis stated that funding for the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve “can start anytime,” citing President Trump’s executive order designating Bitcoin as a national reserve asset. The Treasury currently manages approximately 200,000 BTC—worth roughly $17 billion—under a budget-neutral framework using seized assets.

The House’s 2026 appropriations bill requires a 90-day Treasury study on custody, standards, and AI for sanctions enforcement. It also bans funds for a central bank digital currency. No further Bitcoin purchases are mandated beyond seized assets, leaving future reserve growth open for debate.

VanEck’s economic modeling projects that acquiring one million Bitcoin by 2029 could offset about 18% of the US national debt by 2049. CoinShares analysts suggest the reserve could strengthen technological leadership and offer inflation protection. Chainalysis economists, however, warn that simultaneous accumulation by many nations could affect market stability.

States and Nations Race to Build Bitcoin Reserves

Texas has already taken action. On November 20, it became the first US state to purchase Bitcoin for its treasury, acquiring $10 million through BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF when prices briefly dipped to $87,000. The move signals a growing appetite among state governments to treat Bitcoin as a strategic asset.

The momentum is not limited to America. Taiwan’s legislature has urged the government to audit its Bitcoin holdings and consider adding cryptocurrency to its strategic reserves, with Premier Cho Jung-tai pledging a detailed report by year-end. Lawmakers cited concerns about the island’s heavy reliance on U.S. dollar assets, which account for over 90% of its $602.94 billion in foreign reserves.

Deutsche Bank analysts project that Bitcoin could appear on central bank balance sheets by 2030, coexisting with gold as a complementary hedge against inflation and geopolitical risk. As nations race to secure both traditional and digital safe-haven assets, the global reserve landscape may be on the verge of a historic transformation.

In the volatile theatre of the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana are showing signs of a potential high-time-frame reversal. After weeks of stress and price compression, each of the top assets is now stabilizing at key structural support levels. The multiple leading cryptocurrencies are flashing similar recovery setups at the same time.

The current crypto landscape may be setting up one of the most powerful high-time-frame reversals across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. An investor and trader known as MacroCRG on X highlighted that yesterday, all three assets printed a bullish engulfing candle, a strong signal that buyers are stepping back in with intent.

Market Leaders Hint At A Shift Before Smaller Assets Follow

On the weekly chart, each asset is showing the early stages of an inside-week breakout paired with a false breakdown. MacroCRG pointed out that a similar structure on the ES (S&P 500 futures) chart from April, where the breakdown of inside-week structure led to a breakout that never looked back when the bull secured the weekly close.

Related Reading: Institutions Exit Bitcoin In Large Tranches, Ethereum, Solana And XRP See Massive Buy-Ins

For this setup to take hold, these prices need to close the week above the key highlighted highs on the chart. However, there’s still a long way to go before the weekly close will confirm the breakout, and the bulls need to follow through with conviction and remove any doubt.

The founder of the ProMintClub investment community, ProMint, has spotted a high-conviction whale trader aggressively building long positions across the crypto market. Currently, the trader is leading the Lighter leaderboard with over $64 million in profit and loss, while maintaining an 83% long bias. His Lighter account has the highest profit and loss with over $8 million. These are insane numbers compared to everyone else on the leaderboard.

Data shows that the trader has made five deposits into his Lighter account, which total around $6 million in capital. His positions are spread across BTC, ETH, SOL, AAVE, along with smaller plays such as PAXG and PUMP, consistently entering at strong timing points and riding momentum higher.

Even though funding costs have flipped heavily negative, he is not backing down. Presently, this is the top-performing account on Lighter, and this is serious capital deployed with conviction.

How Increased Partners Drive Sustained Volume Demand

According to Chainflip Labs, November marked one of the strongest performance months in the protocol’s history, clearing over $583 million in swap volume, which is the second-best month ever for the network. 

Demand remained sustained across BTC, ETH, and SOL routes, and more partners are routing flow through the network than ever before. The trend clearly shows that Chainflip will continue to scale.

Peter Schiff engaged in a debate with CZ at Binance Blockchain Week after challenging Bitcoin’s legitimacy as a generator of real economic value. 

Speaking on stage opposite Changpeng Zhao (CZ), Schiff argued that Bitcoin is a zero-sum wealth transfer rather than a productive asset.

Here is Schiff’s full statement as delivered during the debate:

“Bitcoin Enables Transfer of Wealth From Buyers to Sellers”

This is true to the extent that any freely traded asset, such as equities, gold, land, fine art, also transfers wealth between participants depending on entry price, exit price, and market conditions.

But Schiff implies that this transfer is zero-sum. That’s inaccurate. Bitcoin’s network itself generates utility, which is distinct from price. 

Bitcoin today powers cross-border settlement, functions as a censorship-resistant store of value, and serves as collateral across financial platforms.

Value is generated through capability, not just material form. A global network that moves capital instantly without banks or intermediaries is a new economic function. That is wealth creation by definition.

If Bitcoin merely redistributed value, it would not underpin payment channels, custody platforms, or multi-billion-dollar remittance rails. 

A zero-sum asset does not attract corporate treasuries, institutional ETFs, or nation-state adoption.

“No Real Wealth Was Created by the Addition of 20 Million Bitcoin”

Wealth does not rely on physical substance. It relies on demand, utility, consensus, and the ability to preserve or transfer value.

Schiff’s logic could be applied historically to:

• Government-issued fiat (created by declaration, yet accepted globally).
• Internet domain names (non-physical, yet multi-million-dollar assets).
• Software and cloud infrastructure (intangible, yet critical to global GDP).

By that standard, software, internet DNS space, AI models, and even fiat money would also fail to qualify as wealth. Yet these intangible systems power most of today’s economy.Bitcoin created something that did not exist in monetary history: a bearer asset that moves like data, settles without intermediaries, and is mathematically verifiable. 

That feature is comparable to gold digitization but without storage, transport, or assay friction.

Wealth was created because new capabilities emerged.

“People Only Don’t Know They Lost Money Because Price is Still High”

This rests on the assumption that Bitcoin will collapse. It could — but it is not a fact, it is a projection.

If Bitcoin remains in demand globally, scarcity and network growth sustain value. 

If adoption grows further — as has occurred across ETFs, corporate treasuries, and sovereign custody — then Schiff’s prediction weakens.

His view equates unrealized gains with illusions. But:

• If someone holds Bitcoin for 10 years and later sells at a higher price, wealth is realized.
• If Bitcoin becomes widely transacted and integrated into the monetary infrastructure, the asset functions beyond speculation.

His thesis only holds if Bitcoin fails as a monetary network. And more than a decade of growth suggests the opposite direction.

Conclusion

Peter Schiff’s comments captured headlines and sparked discussion, but his reasoning overlooks key economic realities. 

Bitcoin is not merely a wealth transfer. It is a functioning global monetary network with attributes that no traditional asset class replicates. 

The argument that it “creates no wealth” relies on outdated assumptions about where value originates.

Ethereum is demonstrating notable relative strength after reclaiming the $3,150 level and attempting to push higher, offering a refreshing shift in sentiment following weeks of intense selling pressure, fear, and market-wide uncertainty. As the broader crypto landscape begins to stabilize, ETH stands out as one of the assets showing early signs of recovery, drawing renewed attention from traders and long-term investors alike.

A key factor supporting this shift is the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) reading for Ethereum on Binance, which is currently sitting around 0.22 while price trades near $3,100.

This level reflects a delicate equilibrium between fear and optimism, indicating that a significant portion of ETH holders remain in moderate profit. Importantly, NUPL has not yet moved into the “greed” zone typically seen in the late stages of a bullish cycle, suggesting that the market is far from overheated.

Instead, Ethereum appears to be transitioning into a more neutral, constructive phase where investors are cautiously optimistic but not excessively euphoric. This balance often forms the foundation for a healthier recovery, especially after a deep correction. If momentum continues building and NUPL remains stable or trends higher, ETH could be positioning itself for a stronger upside move in the coming weeks.

NUPL Signals a Transitional Market Phase

Arab Chain notes that Ethereum’s NUPL index experienced a significant rise between June and August, reaching levels far higher than today and reflecting strong profitability across the network during mid-2025. At that time, investor sentiment leaned toward optimism, supported by rising prices and improving macro conditions.

However, as Ethereum’s price began to decline steadily from October onward, unrealized profits started to shrink. This pushed NUPL down toward more neutral territory, signaling a shift in sentiment from elevated optimism to a more grounded, cautious outlook.

Crucially, NUPL has not fallen into negative territory, meaning the average ETH holder has not transitioned into unrealized losses. This is an important sign of underlying market strength. When investors remain in profit, they tend to be less motivated to sell aggressively at lower prices, reducing the risk of panic-driven capitulation and helping stabilize price action during corrections.

Taken together, these signals indicate that Ethereum is currently in a transitional phase. The market is neither euphoric nor fearful—rather, it is waiting for a decisive catalyst to define the next trend. As long as NUPL stays above 0.20, Ethereum retains a meaningful level of investor confidence, increasing the likelihood of a rebound if liquidity strengthens or positive fundamental developments emerge.

ETH Rebounds Strongly on the Weekly Chart

Ethereum’s weekly chart shows a powerful rebound as price surges back above the $3,150–$3,200 region, reclaiming a critical support band that had turned into resistance during the November sell-off. The long lower wick from last week’s candle confirms strong buy-side interest around the $2,700–$2,800 zone, an area that has historically acted as a major demand region during multi-month corrections.

ETH has now reclaimed the 100-week SMA, a key trend indicator currently positioned near $2,900, signaling renewed structural stability. The 200-week SMA, sitting comfortably lower, continues to reinforce the long-term uptrend. However, the 50-week SMA, which has flattened and now looms around the $3,350–$3,400 level, represents the next significant resistance level. ETH will need a decisive weekly close above this moving average to confirm a true shift back into bullish momentum.

Volume on the rebound is notably stronger than in previous consolidation phases, suggesting increased participation and growing confidence among market participants. However, ETH is not yet in the clear. The series of lower highs since the September peak forms a descending structure that must be broken for a sustained uptrend to resume.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

XRP has gained 10% since the beginning of December. The rise aligns with the broader market recovery. Many XRP holders expect the price to rise further, but they should also be aware of several concerning factors.

These factors may limit XRP’s ability to recover this month. The following analysis breaks them down.

Factors That Could Create New Selling Pressure on XRP in December

CryptoQuant data shows a sharp spike in XRP Ledger Velocity. It has reached the highest level of the year.

This metric measures the frequency with which assets are transferred across the network. A strong increase suggests that XRP is not being locked in cold wallets or held for long-term purposes. Instead, it is being traded rapidly among market participants.

CryptoOnchain, an analyst at CryptoQuant, explains that this surge often signals high liquidity and strong participation from traders. It may even involve large transactions from market “whales.”

The indicator itself is neutral, but sudden spikes often lead to significant price fluctuations. As a result, any negative catalyst at this time could push XRP back down and erase the early-month recovery.

Negative signals are already emerging. The first is a surge in short positions. This rise has created heavy selling pressure in the derivatives segment.

Funding rates remain mostly negative, indicating that short positions are dominant. It reflects increasingly bearish sentiment among traders. Historical data also shows that a deep negative funding rate in April coincided with XRP dropping below $2.

Overall, the early-December rebound is not strong enough to reverse the broader downtrend that has persisted since July. PelinayPA’s view remains reasonable under current conditions.

Selling pressure may also come from Korean investors. CryptoQuant reports that XRP balances on Upbit stand at 6.18 billion, compared to 2.6 billion on Binance. The influence of Korean traders cannot be ignored.

XRP reserves on Upbit have increased steadily for three consecutive months. They are now at the highest level of 2025. This trend could create potential selling pressure for XRP in December.

If Korean investors sell, combined with bearish signals from the derivatives market and rising Velocity, XRP’s price may face further downside.

However, XRP ETFs currently serve as the strongest counterweight to potential selling pressure. Data shows that these ETFs have maintained positive net inflows for three straight weeks. Vanguard has also ended its multi-year crypto ban and will allow XRP ETF trading in December.