Bitcoin Must Break Key Supply Clusters To Regain ATH Momentum – Watch These Levels

Bitcoin may have significant upside from here as its current price appears to be out of step with the forward macroeconomic outlook, according to a crypto researcher.

“The last time I saw such an asymmetric risk-reward was during COVID,” Bitwise Europe head of research André Dragosch said in an X post on Friday, referring to March 2020 when global pandemic fears sent Bitcoin’s (BTC) price tumbling from around $8,000 to below $5,000.

Dragosch said that while Bitcoin’s current setup mirrors the extreme risk-reward conditions seen during the COVID pandemic, it is also “pricing in the most bearish global growth outlook since 2022,” pointing to a period marked by aggressive quantitative tightening from the US Federal Reserve and the collapse of crypto exchange FTX.

Bitcoin is “pricing in” a recessionary environment 

“Bitcoin is essentially pricing in a recessionary growth environment,” Dragosch said, arguing that the asset has already priced in “a lot of the bad news.” On Sunday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reassured US citizens that the nation was not at risk of entering a recession in 2026.

On-chain data shows New Whales on the Bitcoin network have been realizing losses recently, while Old Whales have remained at the sidelines.

Bitcoin Has Faced Loss Selling From The Newbie Whales

In a new post on X, CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has talked about the latest trend in the profit/loss realization behavior of the Bitcoin whales. “Whales” broadly refer to the BTC investors that hold at least 1,000 tokens in their balance.

At the current exchange rate, the cutoff for the cohort is equivalent to $91.6 million, which is quite significant. As such, this group represents the big-money hands of the market, who can carry some degree of influence.

Whales can be divided into two subgroups based on holding time. Investors of this size who purchased their coins within the past 155 days are known as the short-term holder (STH) or New Whales. Similarly, whales with a longer holding time are called the long-term holder (LTH) or Old Whales.

Now, here is the chart shared by Maartunn that shows the trend in the net amount of profit/loss that these Bitcoin whale groups have been realizing through their selling over the last few months:

As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin New Whales have shown some loss realization spikes recently. This underwater selling from the cohort has come as the cryptocurrency’s price has gone through a decline.

The New Whales include the inexperienced hands of the market who tend to easily panic in the face of volatility. It would appear that this quality of the group has held through the latest crash as well.

The Old Whales, on the other hand, are considered to represent the resolute side of the network. From the chart, it’s visible that there has been some loss selling from these large dormant entities recently, but its scale has been small compared to the New Whale capitulation.

The fact that the presence of the Old Whales has been relatively muted through the bearish shift, as well as the rebound that has followed, could be a signal worth keeping an eye on.

Speaking of the recovery, the Bitcoin rally has meant that its price has climbed back above a major on-chain cost basis level. As analyst Ali Martinez has shared in an X post, the Bitcoin UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) suggests a strong amount of buying last occurred at $84,500.

In on-chain analysis, strong demand zones below the spot price are considered points of potential support for Bitcoin. Similarly, levels above are assumed to be sources of resistance instead. One such major level is present at $112,300.

BTC Price

Bitcoin’s recovery has furthered during the past day as its price has returned to $92,300.

While the crypto market bounces from last week’s correction, Bitcoin (BTC) is attempting to reclaim a crucial area as support to continue its recovery rally. As the flagship crypto faces some resistance, some market watchers have suggested that this week’s close may be key for its end-of-year performance.

Bitcoin Faces Rejection Ahead Of November Close

Bitcoin has retested a crucial resistance level for the first time in a week, hitting a one-week high of $93,092 on Friday morning before retracing. The flagship crypto has failed to hold crucial support levels throughout the November corrections, trading below $100,000 for nearly two weeks.

A week ago, BTC plunged below $90,000 during the latest market correction, reaching a seven-month low of $80,600. However, the cryptocurrency led this week’s broader recovery, reclaiming key levels over the past few days.

Amid its recent performance, some market observers have noted that Bitcoin is currently retesting a crucial re-accumulation region, between $82,000 and $93,000, where the price consolidated after previous pullbacks, including the Q1 market correction.

Analyst Rekt Capital highlighted that BTC rebounded more than 7% from the local bottom and has revisited the range high resistance during Friday’s recovery. Now, Bitcoin is attempting to hold the high zone of its local range, retesting the $90,000-$91,000 area as support after being rejected from the key resistance.

Previously, he pointed out that last week’s weekly close aligned with the flagship crypto’s monthly range, setting the stage for a potential floor around the $86,000 area, which would develop a new range between this level and the $93,000 resistance.

To the analyst, Bitcoin must close the week, which also coincides with November’s monthly close, above $93,5000 and turn this level into support if it wants to further build on its newfound momentum and potentially revisit its two-month downtrend line, which currently sits near the $96,000 mark.

“The ~$93500 level happens to be a Four-Year Cycle level. History suggests price should be able to find a way to 12-month close above ~$93500 to finish 2025 green,” Rekt Capital added on X.

$98,000 Rally or $88,000 Drop Next?

Market watcher Ted Pillows discussed BTC’s short-term future as it faces some resistance around the $92,000-$93,000 levels. To the analysts, reclaiming this area could propel the price towards the $98,000-$100,000 barrier in the coming weeks.

On the contrary, he suggested that failing to reclaim this level will send Bitcoin’s price below the $88,000 mark. Earlier this week, Ted warned that this was one of the most important levels to reclaim and hold as support in the short term, as a rejection from this area could trigger a significant drop below the recent lows.

Similarly, Daan Crypto Trades noted that the constant sell-off of the past few weeks has created “a ton of marginally lower highs, creating such a big liquidity pocket” between the $97,000-$98,000 zone.

This region also aligns with key horizontal price levels in bigger timeframes, making it a “good area to watch,” as BTC continues to consolidate in a relatively tight range.

The trader considers that if BTC’s price breaks down, the $88,000 mark could be a good place for a higher low. However, if the price holds above the $91,800 level, it may trigger another retest of the $93,000 resistance.

Ultimately, He warned that the market could likely see a “Choppy environment in the short-term surrounding Thanksgiving, which always sees pretty low volume & liquidity.”

As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $90,500, a 1.1% decline in the daily timeframe.

Ethereum is up $3.28 today or 0.11% to $3037.22

• Highest 5 p.m. level since Nov. 18, 2025, when it traded at $3097.14
• Largest percentage increase since Nov. 27, 2025, when it gained 0.43%
• Up five of the past six days
• Up three consecutive days, up 3.61% over this period
• Up 9.91% this week
• Best weekly performance since the week ending Oct. 3, 2025, when it rose 13.01%
• Down 21.3% month-to-date; On pace for worst month since Feb. 2025 when it dropped 32.98%
• Down 9.19% year-to-date
• Down 38.71% from its all-time intraday high of $4955.23 on Aug. 24, 2025
• Down 15.44% from 52 weeks ago (Nov. 29, 2024), when it traded at $3591.82
• Up 115.86% from its 52-week intraday low of $1387.85 on April 9, 2025
• Traded as high as $3092.77; highest intraday level since Nov. 19, 2025
• Up 1.94% at today's intraday high

Note: The Ethereum price is a 5 p.m. ET snapshot from Kraken

Data compiled by Dow Jones Market Data

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange faced one of its most disruptive trading incidents in years after a cooling failure at a major Illinois data center forced a halt that stretched for roughly 10 hours, freezing markets across multiple regions and igniting accusations of manipulation from frustrated traders.

CME confirmed that trading because of a cooling system malfunction at the CyrusOne-operated facility in Aurora, a site that has served as the backbone of CME’s Globex electronic markets for nearly two decades.

Due to a cooling issue at CyrusOne data centers, our markets are currently halted. Support is working to resolve the issue in the near term and will advise clients of Pre-Open details as soon as they are available.— CME Group (@CMEGroup)

The exchange full functionality at 1:30 p.m. UTC on Friday, but the interruption had already rippled through Asia and Europe, where participants were dealing with thin post-Thanksgiving liquidity.CME Outage on Thin Thanksgiving Liquidity Sparks Questions From Traders

During the outage, traders across asset classes—equities, currencies, commodities, energy, and crypto—reported being unable to close or adjust positions, a scenario that several described as a “nightmare.”

One stock trader, Timothy Bozman, publicly CME of allowing a “simple issue” to cripple the entire futures complex, questioning how all major markets could be taken offline by a single point of failure.

Manipulation at it's best. How in the actual $&#@ could the entire Index Futures, FX Futures, Metals futures, Energy Futures, Agriculture Futures markets and options be halted because of a server overheating. A simple issue could take down entire futures platform? — Timothy Bozman (@MrAmazingBoz)

Others went further, that the timing was “too convenient,” given that the halt arrived during the low-volume Asia session on Thanksgiving, when sudden price moves can unfold with limited resistance.

Some traders out that silver futures were approaching a record high near $54 just minutes before prices froze, adding fuel to the speculation and frustration.

The outage was widespread because the Globex platform handles the majority of CME’s volume.

An earlier cryptonews report stated that crude and palm oil markets stopped moving during the halt, while crypto traders saw Bitcoin and Ethereum futures go offline entirely.

The timing added complexity for firms preparing month-end rolls, particularly those needing to adjust Treasury futures or SOFR-linked positions

Several traders later noted that even after markets reopened, delays continued in Treasury futures and certain rate products.

Trading activity had already been muted due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, but the outage further slowed an already quiet session.

Official communication from CME Group on their website has been posted. It’s officially ruled as a technical halt. Carry on. I’d expect your prop firm to cancel losses for any stuck trades but we’ll see. — KD (@KingDipsX)

One user on X publicly CME to cancel losses for trades affected during the freeze, reflecting the broader anxiety of traders locked into moving markets with no ability to act.CME Suffers Major Outage as It Prepares Shift to 24/7 Crypto Trading in 2026

CyrusOne, which operates more than 55 data centers globally and is backed by KKR and BlackRock’s Global Infrastructure Partners, the cooling malfunction.

The Aurora facility is well-known among high-frequency trading firms that place servers as physically close as possible to CME’s matching engines to shave off microseconds.

The exchange acknowledged that CME Direct, a platform used for some markets, remained unavailable even after Globex reopened, showing the extent of the disruption.

The incident lasted far longer than a similar 2019 CME outage, and it was the latest reminder of how centralized infrastructure can pose systemic risk in electronic markets.

CME has faced technical issues in the past, including a triggered by a software malfunction affecting agricultural contracts.

Despite the friction, markets resumed and continued adjusting to broader price movements.

Bitcoin futures, which closed on Wednesday at $90,355 before the holiday, reopened at $90,940 on Friday and pushed above $93,000 later in the session as BTC rebounded from its recent low of around $80,522. Source: Cryptonews

Analysts noted that Bitcoin faces resistance near $95,000, but reclaiming that level could reopen the path toward six-figure territory.

The blackout also comes at a moment when CME is expanding its role in the digital asset sector. In October, the exchange said it plans to move its cryptocurrency futures and options into a full 24/7 trading cycle starting in early 2026, subject to regulatory approval.

The firm cited rapidly rising demand for continuous risk management in crypto markets, which never close.

CME said trading will run nonstop on Globex, aside from a brief weekly maintenance window, and weekend transactions will be assigned to the next business day for clearing and settlement.

On December 23, 2025, SOON will unlock almost 22 million tokens, which is about 5.97% of its available supply. This event can cause a bigger movement in SOON's price. If most of these unlocked tokens are sold, the price may go down because there are more tokens to buy in the market. If investors keep their tokens instead, the price may not change much. It is important to watch trading volumes and social media before and after this event to guess where the price could move. source