Bitcoin Expert Predicts Correction To $78,000 CME Gap, Reveals Date For Next Bear Market

The recent Bitcoin rally has driven Coinbase to the ninth spot in global app rankings, followed by Robinhood at 13.

This surge in popularity marks a resurgence of retail interest, as Coinbase was ranked 435 the night before the US elections.

Retail Interest Revives: Coinbase Climbs to Ninth Globally in App Store

Coinbase’s rapid rise reflects retail investors returning to the crypto market, eager to join the Bitcoin rally. With Bitcoin’s price on the rise, users are downloading trading apps in large numbers to participate.

Robinhood, another major trading platform, is also trending upward, now ranking 13 in the US App Store, while CashApp trails behind at number 30. This simultaneous growth for Coinbase and Robinhood shows a renewed demand for easy-to-use crypto trading platforms.

In March 2024, Coinbase reappeared among the top 100 apps for a brief period. It was the first time it had done so since two years prior, marking the beginning of this renewed interest.

Now, its spot in the top 10 confirms a new wave of retail adoption, likely driven by Bitcoin’s recent performance. As retail investors respond to these market shifts, the crypto space appears to be gaining fresh momentum.

When Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies surge, retail investors flock to trading platforms, fueling increased app downloads. Robinhood’s ranking at 20th also suggests that traditional trading apps that cater to retail crypto demand stand to make significant gains.

Known primarily for stock trading, Robinhood now attracts users seeking both stock and crypto investments in a single app. This rise of Robinhood signals that retail investors want easy, simplified access to crypto, especially during price surges.

Polymarket Bets on the Bitcoin Rally

Polymarket bettors have been quick to jump on the subject. At the time of writing, users estimate a 58% chance that Coinbase will remain among the top 10 free apps on November 15.

Coinbase bets (November 12 to 14). Source: Polymarket.

In the crypto industry, app rankings often signal market enthusiasm and can indicate an approaching bull market. This trend also highlights how retail adoption shapes the market for crypto apps.

As platforms like Coinbase climb app rankings, they reveal the crypto market’s vibrancy and responsiveness to price gains. If this pattern persists, more crypto apps could gain popularity, attracting even more retail investors.

Around 38,500 Bitcoin options contracts will expire on Friday, Nov. 15, and they have a notional value of around $3.4 billion.

Today’s options expiry is pretty similar in magnitude tolast week’s, as markets have remained buoyant for most of the week.

However, analysts have cautioned that a correction is due following the largest rally for around eight months.Bitcoin Options Expiry

This week’s tranche of Bitcoin options contracts has a put/call ratio of 0.84, meaning that there are slightly more long (calls) than short (puts) expiries.

Moreover, open interest (OI), or the value or number of open options contracts yet to expire, is high at the $80,000, $90,000, and $100,000 strike prices, which are all within the realms of possibility following this week’s pump.

Earlier this week, crypto derivatives provider Greeks Live commented that market sentiment has not reached the peak FOMO (fear of missing out), adding that “options investors are still tentative to build positions and 90,000 and 100,000 piled up a large number of options positions.”

If Bitcoin breaks through $100,000, it is “very likely to cause FOMO in the options market, which will trigger a surge in IV (implied volatility),” it added.

However, the breakout price of ETH will be $4,000, “which is still far away and can only follow BTC for the time being,” Greeks noted. There are around 189,000 Ethereum contracts expiring today in addition to the big batch of Bitcoin options.

These have a notional value of $582 million and a put/call ratio of 0.92, bringing Friday’s combined crypto options expiry notional value to around $4 billion.

In its weekly crypto derivatives recap, analytics firm Block Scholes commented:

“Both BTC and ETH now benefit from a powerful combination of spot price gains and robust bullish derivatives activity, signaling strong demand to participate in further upside potential.”Crypto Markets Cool

Crypto markets have retreated towards the end of the week withtotal capitalizationdropping 3.3% on the day, but remaining just above $3 trillion.

Bitcoin has dipped 2%, hitting an intraday low of $87,000 before recovering marginally during the Friday morning Asian trading session to reach $88,000 at the time of writing.

Ethereum has corrected harder, dropping 4% in a fall to just over $3,000, where it remains at the time of writing.

The altcoins were mostly in the red, aside from XRP, Cardano (ADA), Near Protocol (NEAR), Litecoin (LTC), and Stellar (XLM).

XRP, the seventh-biggest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, hit a new 2024 high of $0.847 on Thursday on the Bitstamp exchange.

The controversial token has surged by 16% over the past day alone. This makes it the top gainer among the top 100 tokens on cryptocurrency ranking website CoinGecko. Hedera (HBAR) and Stellar (XLM) come in second and third places after rallying 9.5% and 6%, respectively.

As reported by U.Today, the Ripple-affiliated token surged sharply higher on Thursday amid speculation that U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler might step down as soon as this Friday.

Gensler's recent remarks suggest that he might end up leaving the agency in the near future.

The term of the current SEC boss has been defined by his legal battles with major crypto companies, including Ripple.

Stuart Alderoty, Ripple's top lawyer, recently amped up his criticism of Gensler, arguing that he has caused significant institutional damage to the SEC. "His legacy of undermining American innovation, and failing to uphold the law is shameful," he said.

As many as 18 conservative states, including Texas and Florida, recently sued the SEC over its cryptocurrency clampdown.

"With 18 states suing to hold him [Gensler] accountable, I look forward to him soon becoming an unfortunate footnote in SEC history," Alderoty commented.

Of course, even after the most recent rally fueled by Gensler's seemingly imminent departure, XRP remains one of the worst-performing tokens overall. It is down 76.2% from its record high that was achieved almost seven years ago.

Bitcoin has reached a major milestone by surpassing the $90,000 price mark, marking a significant moment in its ongoing bullish rally. The price surge has drawn the attention of existing investors and attracted a new wave of market participants.

This influx is evidenced by the increase in UTXO (Unspent Transaction Output) Age Bands. This metric tracks the distribution of Bitcoin holdings by age, according to an analysis shared by CryptoQuant analyst Shiven Moodley. This development reflects heightened interest and engagement in the Bitcoin market.

Moodley’s analysis revealed that a high percentage of market participants are currently profitable, as indicated by the UTXO profit percentage metric.

However, despite this strong market performance, long-term holders appear to maintain their positions even as the derivatives market becomes increasingly leveraged.

Profitability Metrics Signal Market Momentum

One of the key insights highlighted by Moodley is the positive Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR). This indicator suggests that many Bitcoin transactions are occurring at a profit, reflecting an optimistic market sentiment and providing a foundation for potential further price increases.

However, Moodley pointed to a developing “mania phase” in the market, evidenced by the growing number of options market call contracts set to expire over the next two months.

This surge in call contracts indicates that many traders are betting on continued upward momentum, potentially driving further speculative activity.

The CryptoQuant analyst also discussed the implications of probability models that track Bitcoin’s price movements over time. According to these models, with a lag of 500 days, Bitcoin has breached two standard deviations at the $90,000 level.

The next significant price marker, represented by the third standard deviation, according to Moodley is currently projected to be around $101,000. This suggests that, while Bitcoin’s current upward trajectory is notable, the potential for further price gains remains.

Bitcoin Market Performance

Bitcoin appears to be now seeing a cool off in its recent bullish momentum. Particularly, following a consistent week of new highs reaching a peak of $93,477 yesterday, BTC has since faced a major pullback in price, bringing its price to trade as low as below $89,000, as of today.

At the time of writing, the asset currently trades for $88,878, down by 2.9% in the past day. Regardless, BTC seems to still be in an uptrend with a past week performance of nearly 20%.

Notably, while the market environment still reflects strong bullish sentiment, there are risks to be aware of. As highlighted by Moodley, the increased leverage in the derivatives market, combined with rising call options activity, could lead to heightened volatility in the BTC market.

Overleveraged markets are historically prone to corrections, especially when market sentiment shifts rapidly. Therefore, while many market participants may currently be in profit, maintaining caution is worth considering.

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

The massive Bitcoin (BTC) rally following Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election is beginning to show signs of slowing down, particularly in the derivatives market, as evidenced by the leading digital asset’s retreat below the $90,000 mark on Thursday. 

Bitcoin Experiences Significant Liquidation Activity

According to Bloomberg data, the premium for CME-listed Bitcoin futures contracts—commonly used by institutional investors to speculate on price movements—has decreased, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment.

K33 Research notes that the basis, or the difference between the futures price and the spot price, has dropped to around 10% after previously hovering between 13% and 16% since the election. 

Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33, remarked, “Markets seem to be cooling down… that might have been a subtle hint of moderating risk profiles.” This shift suggests that investors may be reassessing their strategies in light of the recent price volatility.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $87,970, down from its all-time high of $93,462 reached just a day ago. Since Trump’s election victory, the cryptocurrency has seen an increase of over 30%. 

However, this rally has been accompanied by significant liquidation of leveraged bullish positions. In the past 24 hours, liquidations of long positions—those betting on price increases—totaled $447 million, compared to $207 million for bearish bets. 

Renewed Trader Interest

Profit-taking is also contributing to the recent downturn, particularly as Bitcoin approached the $90,000 mark, which has historically been a significant level for open interest in call options. 

James Davies, CEO of Crypto Valley Exchange, noted, “Crazy speculative days in the market, big profit taking in the last few hours… $90k is a massive level in the call options open interest.”

The rally has primarily been fueled by fresh demand in the spot market, evidenced by substantial inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) backed by Bitcoin and relatively moderate leverage among traders. 

Interestingly, the funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual futures on offshore exchanges rose after falling earlier in the week, indicating renewed interest among traders after the so-called “Trump trade” catalyst.

Options traders are increasingly optimistic, with growing interest in calls with strike prices at $110,000 and $120,000, according to data from Deribit. As Davies commented, “It’s all pure speculative trading right now, expect lots of volatility and a lack of clear signals for a while whilst we wait for policy announcements in the U.S.”

As the market approaches the expiry of November options, all eyes will be on whether the $90,000 price point will serve as a resistance level or if Bitcoin can surpass it once again.

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

In a recent interview with CNBC, MicroStrategy co-founder Michael Saylor predicted that the price of Bitcoin could reach $100,000 by the end of this year. 

Saylor is convinced that Bitcoin is not going to revisit the $30,000 level. Instead, the leading cryptocurrency is going to surge higher in the near future. 

"I'm planning the $100,000 party, and I'm thinking that it's probably going to be New Year's Eve at my house. So, I will be surprised if we don't go through $100,000 in November or December" he said. 

The leading cryptocurrency dipped below the $87,000 level earlier this Friday after reaching a lifetime peak of $93,477 on Wednesday, according to CoinGecko data. 

Polymarket bettors currently see only a 36% chance of Bitcoin hitting $100,000 this November. 

According to Bloomberg, the ongoing Bitcoin rally has started showing signs of cooling based on recent data fro the derivatives market.

A US Bitcoin reserve is a great idea

During the interview, Saylor also predicted that the US will eventually establish a Bitcoin reserve.

"The next great frontier is cyberspace, and the obvious thing to do is own cyberspace...I think it's a great idea. I think it will happen," he said.

As reported by U.Today, Mike Novogratz predicted that a US Bitcoin reserve was unlikely. However, if such an ambitious idea gets implemented, Novogratz expects Bitcoin to skyrocket all the way to $500,000.