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Bitcoin’s sharp correction from $110,000 to around $80,000 is linked to heavy selling by early whales with cost bases near $16,000. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju notes that on-chain metrics indicate Bitcoin is now in the “shoulder” phase of its cycle, suggesting limited short-term upside potential.
This selling is overwhelming institutional demand from ETFs and MicroStrategy, shaping the cryptocurrency’s 2025 outlook. In an interview with Upbit’s Upbitcare, Ju provides a data-driven look at the shifting landscape for Bitcoin investors and the forces affecting its current market structure.
Early Bitcoin Whales Fuel Selling Pressure
Ki Young Ju explains that today’s market is shaped by a contest between two main whale groups. Legacy whales, holding Bitcoin with an average cost basis near $16,000, have begun to realize hefty profits, selling at a rate measured in hundreds of millions of USD each day. This persistent selling has exerted intense downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price.
At the same time, institutional whales via spot Bitcoin ETFs and MicroStrategy have accumulated significant positions. Yet, their buying power has not matched the scale of early whales’ sell-offs. According to Ju, wallets holding over 10,000 BTC for more than 155 days typically have an average cost basis of around $38,000. Binance traders entered positions around $50,000, so many market participants are in profit and can sell if needed.
The CryptoQuant CEO points out that spot ETF and MicroStrategy inflows had boosted the market earlier in 2025. However, those flows have now declined. Outflows have started to dominate the market landscape. For example, data from Farside Investors showed Bitcoin ETFs recorded $42.8 million in net inflows on November 26, 2025, lifting cumulative inflows to $62.68 billion. Despite these figures, the sustained selling from early whales outweighs institutional accumulation.
Market Cycle Analysis Signals Limited Upside
On-chain profit-and-loss metrics offer crucial insights into market cycles. Ju’s analysis using the PnL index with a 365-day moving average reveals that the market has entered a “shoulder” phase. This late-cycle status indicates constrained growth potential and increased risk of a correction.
The valuation multiplier reflects a neutral-to-flat outlook. In previous cycles, each new dollar drove amplified market-cap growth. Now, that multiplier effect has faded. This suggests market leverage is less efficient, and the structure does not support significant gains.
Ju does not expect a dramatic 70-80% crash. Still, he considers corrections up to 30% reasonable. A drop from $100,000 could mean Bitcoin falling to about $70,000. He uses data from OKX futures long-short ratios, exchange leverage ratios, and buy-sell flow patterns to support this view.
Ju underscores the importance of a data-driven approach. In a recent post, he urged traders to use metrics for conviction, not speculation. His focus remains on interpreting on-chain data, exchange activity, and market structure.
This comprehensive analysis provides a grounded assessment based on on-chain evidence. As early Bitcoin whales continue to sell at profits, institutions face a harsh climate. With high leverage ratios, neutral valuation multipliers, and a late-cycle stance, the market has limited potential for a major rally in the near future.
Avalanche (AVAX) is back in the spotlight after reclaiming its position among the top 20 cryptos to surpass Hedera (HBAR), just as Securitize secures EU approval to launch the region’s first fully regulated blockchain-based securities market on the Avalanche network.
This convergence of regulatory momentum, institutional adoption, and renewed technical strength has positioned AVAX for a potential market revival heading into 2026.
Securitize Wins EU Approval and Selects Avalanche for Settlement System
Securitize received regulatory authorization from Spain’s National Securities Market Commission (CNMV) to operate a tokenized trading and settlement system under the EU’s DLT Pilot Regime.
The approval enables Securitize to passport the license across the European Single Market, including France, Germany, and Italy, creating an unprecedented bridge between its U.S. broker-dealer operations and Europe’s capital markets.
The firm confirmed that the entire infrastructure will run on the Avalanche blockchain, citing sub-second finality, regulatory-grade network performance, and scalable architecture.
This move positions Avalanche at the center of institutional tokenization just as Securitize prepares for a $1.25 billion SPAC merger and expands its portfolio, including managing the now-over $1 billion BlackRock BUIDL on-chain treasury fund.
The first EU-compliant issuance is slated for early 2026, opening the door for a wave of regulated tokenized assets, an estimated $18 trillion market by 2033.
AVAX Price Holds Key Support as Technical Signals Improve
While fundamentals surge, AVAX’s price remains compressed near the long-term support zone around $12–$15. The token recently bounced to $14.94, posting a 6.5% daily gain and breaking above its 7-day moving average at $13.96. It now faces a technical showdown with resistance at the 20-day SMA at $15.21.
Momentum indicators are turning constructive. RSI sits at a healthy 42, MACD shows bullish divergence, and Stochastic momentum favors buyers. A breakout above $15.21 could open the path toward $18.61, with a larger target near $33 if long-term trendlines snap.
However, failure to hold above $13.91 risks retesting deeper support near $12.57.Institutional Accumulation Strengthens Bullish Outlook
Fueling optimism, AVAX One Treasury recently accumulated over 9.37 million AVAX, spending $110 million between November 5 and 23. Total reserves now exceed 13.8 million AVAX, signaling robust long-term institutional confidence.
On-chain metrics support the bullish case. Deployed contracts are rising, developer activity is expanding, and futures taker data shows increasing buyer dominance. These combined forces suggest that AVAX may be carving out a medium-term bottom.
As institutional momentum builds and Europe’s first regulated blockchain securities market goes live on Avalanche, AVAX’s comeback narrative is gaining traction—and a trend reversal may be closer than the charts imply.
Cover image from ChatGPT, AVAXUSD on Tradingview
Ethereum is up $12.93 today or 0.43% to $3033.94
Note: The Ethereum price is a 5 p.m. ET snapshot from Kraken
Data compiled by Dow Jones Market Data
Anthropic’s ChatGPT killer, Claude AI, has delivered a dramatic forecast for XRP, Shiba Inu, and Pepe heading into Christmas. All three altcoins could experience an unusually volatile December, either surging or sliding sharply depending on macroeconomic sentiment and industry catalysts.
Over the past month, the crypto market has been in a steep correction triggered by a major Bitcoin selloff, with steep pullbacks across most major assets. Bitcoin briefly dipped to an eight-month low around $82,000 last Friday.
Even so, the bigger picture remains constructive. Blockchain innovation continues to advance, and high-durability altcoins like XRP, Shiba Inu, and Pepe are still viewed as strong long-term contenders. Once market conditions stabilize, each project could regain upward momentum.
Below is how Claude AI breaks down the bullish and bearish paths for December.XRP (XRP): Claude AI Predicts a Possible Swing Toward Either $10 or $1 Based on December Market Conditions
Claude AI’s downside projection suggests Ripple’s XRP ($XRP) could retreat to around $1.80 by Christmas if market sentiment deteriorates, representing a 17% drop from today’s price near $2.18.Source: Claude
Such a reversal would contrast sharply with XRP’s powerful run earlier this year, when it rallied to a seven-year peak of $3.65 in July after Ripple secured a major legal win against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
For months, XRP has consolidated within multiple bullish flag formations that failed to resolve. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits near 53, and the token climbed 1.5% during the past 24 hours as the rest of the market collectively climbed 4% to a combined market cap of $3.2 trillion.
Under ideal conditions, Claude’s upper-bound target reaches $10. The SEC’s recent approval of nine XRP spot ETFs could steady institutional demand, if the prior Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF launches are an accurate precedent. Additionally, more high-profile ETF launches could arrive soon.
Further regulatory clarity or major institutional partnerships could help propel XRP toward the double-digit range by 2026.Shiba Inu (SHIB): Claude AI Highlights the Potential for a 15× Rally
Shiba Inu ($SHIB), which debuted in 2020 as a playful challenger to Dogecoin, now commands a market capitalization above $5 billion.Source: Claude
Trading near $0.0000085, SHIB climbed 2% in the past day, roughly matching Dogecoin’s gains.
A move toward the key $0.000025 resistance as November wraps up could pave the way for Claude AI’s projected year-end price window of $0.00005 to $0.00009, representing potential gains of up to 11×.
Claude’s bearish outlook for SHIB is notably less severe than its predictions for XRP and Pepe. In a downside scenario, SHIB could rise a little into the $0.00001 support zone and then trade sideways, indicating minimal gains of 18% from its current price.
The Shiba Inu ecosystem has expanded significantly, with Shibarium, a Layer-2 scaling network, offering faster transactions, lower fees, broader developer support, and enhanced privacy tools. These features place SHIB in a more advanced category than typical meme tokens.Pepe ($PEPE): Claude AI Predicts 420% Surge!
Pepe ($PEPE), launched in April 2023, has grown into the leading non-doge-themed meme coin, with a heady market cap of over $2 billion.Source: Claude
Inspired by Matt Furie’s “Boy’s Club” comic series, Pepe’s cultural influence and meme legacy have helped solidify its ubiquitous presence across social media.
Despite fierce competition, Pepe maintains deep liquidity and an active fan base, occasionally boosted by cryptic nods from Elon Musk on X, prompting speculation that he has a Pepe position alongside his known positions in DOGE and BTC.
The token trades near $0.0000046 today, still about 84% below its December 2024 high of $0.00002803.
Claude AI’s models suggest PEPE could challenge ATH with a 420% rise to reach $0.000024. In the short term, however, the token must break through the stubborn $0.000018 resistance area to confirm a larger trend shift.
However, a bear market could see a collapse of 35% to $0.000003.Maxi Doge (MAXI): A Rising Meme Coin Not Factored Into Claude’s Forecasts
While Claude AI anticipates potential pressure on major altcoins, presale projects continue attracting heavy interest. One standout is Maxi Doge ($MAXI), which has raised $4.2 million and markets itself as the “next Dogecoin.”
MAXI’s humorous origin story centers on a character named Maxi Doge, depicted as plotting a comedic takeover after years of watching Dogecoin dominate. The project leans heavily into viral content, community contests, and an active social presence to build momentum.
As an ERC-20 token, MAXI benefits from Ethereum’s stronger security, scalability, lower environmental impact, and larger developer ecosystem, advantages that Dogecoin’s older proof-of-work model lacks.
The project currently advertises staking rewards of up to 73% APY, though these rates will naturally decrease as staking participation grows.
MAXI is priced at $0.00027 in its presale, with scheduled increases in later phases. Purchases can be made via MetaMask or Best Wallet.
Dogecoin stands no chance!
Stay updated through Maxi Doge’s and pages.
Visit the Official Website Here
Blockchain data shows the Royal Government of Bhutan has staked 320 Ether (ETH) worth roughly $970,000 through Figment, marking the latest onchain activity from the Himalayan state as it expands its crypto holdings and validator operations.
Figment is a staking provider that helps large investors and institutions stake digital assets across multiple blockchains and earn rewards for securing proof-of-stake networks.
The move adds to a growing wave of Ethereum-focused activity from Bhutan. In October, the South Asian nation of roughly 800,000 people began migrating its self-sovereign digital ID system from Polygon to Ethereum, allowing residents to verify their identities and access government services on the network.
The Ethereum integration is already live, with all resident credentials expected to be fully migrated by early 2026, said Ethereum Foundation president Aya Miyaguchi at the event launch alongside Vitalik Buterin and Bhutan’s prime minister, Tshering Tobgay.
Bhutan expands crypto footprint
Bhutan has been leaning into digital assets for years. In 2019, the country quietly began accumulating Bitcoin by tapping its hydropower resources to mine the cryptocurrency. It holds about 6,154 BTC worth over $562 million at current prices, according to Arkham data.
In July, Bhutan announced plans to boost its tourism industry and attract younger travelers by integrating cryptocurrency payments across the country. Officials said the move, supported by Binance, has nearly 1,000 onboarded merchants and is meant to modernize wire transfers and reduce friction for tourists.
Bhutan’s growing activity mirrors broader trends in institutional and corporate Bitcoin accumulation, where large holders have become increasingly influential in the market.
Among corporate BTC treasury holders, Michael Saylor’s Strategy dominates with 649,870 BTC, while Marathon Holdings ranks a distant second with 53,250 BTC.
The world’s largest known Bitcoin stash still belongs to Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator of the network, who is estimated to control about 1.1 million BTC.
A session between STON.fi and EVAA Protocol will happen on December 4, 2025. The talk is about making lending, looping, and DeFi strategies simpler. If they show new features or easy-to-use tools, more people might use their platforms, which could increase the value of STON and EVAA. But if the session is more educational and does not include major updates, the price impact may be small. Overall, the event might cause short-term market movement if the news is positive. You can get more information on the session page: source.
Flare (FLR) is holding a vote on FIP.14 & STP.11, which could bring a new attestation type (Web2Json) to its network. This means more data choices and better tech for the Flare Data Connector, and clear rules for future changes. Votes are determined by wrapped and staked FLR, not by delegators like the foundation or VCs. If the vote passes, it could make the network stronger and more valuable, leading to higher demand for FLR and perhaps a price move. You can find more details in the official X announcement: source.
Flare ️@FlareNetworksNov 26, 2025Voting starts in a day️
Here's a quick primer on how your vote power is determined:
• Your votes = wrapped FLR + staked FLR at the snapshot (“vote count block”) taken just before voting opens
• Delegating doesn’t remove your right to vote
• Foundation & VC Funds do not… pic.twitter.com/9FHO7JGWuE
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