Bitcoin bounces to seven-day highs, but can BTC break $95K on Thanksgiving?

Ethereum (ETH) is attempting to bounce from the market’s Q4 correction, retesting the $3,000 barrier once again. As we approach the end of November, some market observers have suggested that the end-of-year rally may still be possible in the coming weeks.

Ethereum Eyes $3,000 Ahead Of Key Upgrade

On Wednesday, Ethereum experienced a 4.4% daily surge, retesting the $3,000 level for the first time in nearly a week. The cryptocurrency has been trading within the $2,680-$2,980 price range amid the latest market-wide correction, which also saw Bitcoin (BTC) lose some crucial support levels.

At the start of the week, the King of Altcoins broke above the $2,900 area, attempting to retest the next key resistance over the past two days but ultimately failing to reclaim it. Analyst Ted Pillows highlighted this performance, noting that ETH “tapped the $2,950-$3,000 zone again and got rejected.”

Per the post, until Ethereum successfully reclaims this level, “the chances of a new low are high.” On the contrary, if the cryptocurrency breaks above this zone with strong volume in the coming days, investors could “expect a rally towards the $3,400 level.”

The analyst also suggested that the altcoin could see a remarkable recovery rally next week, driven by the upcoming Fusaka upgrade. As he explained, ETH soared around 50% after the network’s Pectra upgrade in May.

As reported by NewsBTC, the upgrade introduced a series of improvements to increase transaction capacity, enhance efficiency, and reduce system stress. Following the implementation, the cryptocurrency rallied from the $1,800 level to the $2,700 area in a week, which was later followed by an 80% jump in Q3 to its latest all-time high (ATH) of $4,946.

Now, the Fusaka upgrade is the network’s biggest update since The Merge and is expected to come on December 3, “to relieve one of the network’s most pressing bottlenecks: data availability for rollups,” VanEck explained in October.

Based on this, Ted Pillows suggested that if ETH repeats its post-Pectra performance with the new upgrade, the altcoin’s price could soar above the $4,000 resistance in the next few weeks.

End-Of-Year Rally Underway?

Market watcher Merlijn The Trader also suggested that Ethereum could see another leg up soon, as it is “repeating a textbook wave structure” it has printed multiple times since hitting the bear market bottom in mid-2022.

“Wave 1: Kicked off the cycle. Wave 2: Is shaking weak hands. wave 3: Where parabolas form,” the trader explained on X, noting that ETH could be ending its corrective move and potentially see another rally in the coming weeks.

“This pattern printed 3 times before. Each time, ETH went vertical. Now it’s flashing again,” he stated. Similarly, Michaël van de Poppe highlighted Ethereum’s trading pair against Bitcoin, affirming that investors should keep an eye on the chart.

Notably, ETH is retesting a multi-month downtrend line resistance against BTC, and could “see a strong breakout upwards in the coming weeks.” “This cycle is far from over,” van de Poppe added.

Meanwhile, Rekt Capital noted that Ethereum Dominance continues to occupy an area that served as a consolidation zone before the 2021 rally. “As long as ETHDOM can maintain itself above 10.05% then it should be positioned for higher market dominance levels over time,” the analyst concluded.

As of this writing, ETH trades at $3,023, a 2% increase in the weekly timeframe.

The Bitcoin price appears to be entering a new recovery phase, as the leading cryptocurrency recaptured the $91,000 level after falling by more than 30% from all-time highs last Friday, tumbling to an 8-month low of $80,000.

Critical Bitcoin Price Range

Technical analyst Daan Crypto Trades highlighted on social media site X (formerly Twitter) on Wednesday that the critical region for investors to monitor right now is between the $89,000 and $91,000 range. 

He observed that this price level acted as support in late 2024 and early 2025 before becoming a point of resistance during President Donald Trump’s recent tariff negotiations with the world’s top economies, including China. 

After breaking out of this zone almost exactly one year ago, the Bitcoin price reached new highs of $109,000 in January, which held until a new uptrend in May of this year resulted in BTC reaching $112,000. 

Daan emphasizes that a strong consolidation above these levels could pave the way for a rally toward the $106,000 to $108,000 range. Conversely, if Bitcoin falls back below these levels, it could revisit last week’s low of $80,000, which he identifies as the nearest support.

Bullish Sentiments Amid Caution

Another analyst, BitcoinVector, echoed Daan’s bullish sentiment but cautioned that the market remains in a high-risk environment and that the current momentum has yet to strengthen significantly. 

According to BitcoinVector, steady momentum is required for Bitcoin to break out of the compression pattern that has formed since its all-time high. 

He laid out the bullish path: first, the Bitcoin price must close within the $89,000 to $90,000 zone, followed by consolidation above this area, and finally, a breakout through the $93,500 to $95,000 compression band.

For this recovery to gain traction, BitcoinVector stressed the importance of a “Risk-Off Signal,” indicating that buyers must begin to overpower sellers while generating momentum. Without such momentum, each upward movement would merely be a tactical reaction rather than indicative of a structural recovery. Prolonged Bear Market Ahead?

Market analyst Skew provided additional insights, noting that the four-hour chart for Bitcoin appears more constructive for bulls. He pointed to several indicators suggesting upward momentum, including the price being above the four-hour 50 EMA, the RSI remaining above 50, and the Stochastic RSI trending higher. 

Skew identifies the $88,000 mark as a crucial “line in the sand,” arguing that a drop below this level would signal weakness and a failed attempt to gain momentum.

Despite the cautious optimism from some analysts, others, like Jacob King, offer a starkly different perspective. He argues that given the Bitcoin price decline from its all-time high in October, it has never experienced such a fall followed by a sustained bull market. 

According to King, Bitcoin is now in a bear market that may persist for years, poised to affect the fortunes of countless investors, particularly those heavily leveraged.

As of this writing, the Bitcoin price stands at $91,390, marking a 4% recovery within the last 24 hours. This places the cryptocurrency 27% below its all-time high. 

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

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Bitcoin’s most important reversal signal may finally be forming. After three weeks of relentless sell pressure from US spot markets and record ETF outflows, a rare cluster of metrics is shifting in unison.

The Coinbase Premium is recovering, whales are going long aggressively, funding rates have flipped negative, and fresh ETF inflows have reappeared. Analysts say it is the first coordinated improvement in Bitcoin’s market structure since early November.

US Selling Pressure Suddenly Cools After 22 Days of Pain

For most of November, US-based entities drove the price of Bitcoin lower. The Coinbase Premium Index, which compares BTC prices on Coinbase Pro (heavily used by US institutions) versus global exchanges, remained negative for 22 consecutive days, marking the longest discount window of 2025.

Analyst Crypto Goos added that every time this indicator turns “deeply red,” Bitcoin dumps, recognizing the budding change this week. Now it’s starting to cool off, which could signal the beginning of a reversal.

Dark Fost, who reportedly monitors the indicator daily, said the same selling cohort, institutions, professionals, and US whales, has sharply reduced pressure since the panic peak on November 21.

Elsewhere, analysts note that the most significant shift is occurring in position data, with whales going long on Bitcoin more aggressively than individual investors for the first time in history.

With the Coinbase Premium rising again, funding rates falling, and retail showing hesitance, analysts say such conditions often precede sustained uptrends.

In the same tone, analyst Daan Crypto Trades confirmed the spot dynamic improving underneath, citing a steadily returning Coinbase premium with funding rates turning negative. In his view, even small improvements matter because the prior sell pressure was extreme.

Macro Flips Risk-On: Dollar Rejects, Yields Break Lower, and ETF Flows Finally Turn Green Again

However, others observe key catalysts emerging from the macro level, with MV Crypto highlighting a series of market-wide shifts.

Against this backdrop, the prevailing sentiment is that it may be time to adopt a bullish stance rather than a bearish one, thanks to macroeconomic conditions turning positive for the crypto market.

Large transfers and associated flow signals add credence to this line of thought, with SpaceX moving $105 million worth of Bitcoin to Coinbase Prime for custody.

Additionally, after one of the worst ETF outflow months on record, November 25 and 26 finally posted positive inflows.

Historically, Bitcoin performs best when ETF inflows and the Coinbase Premium rise in tandem, signaling broad US demand across both institutional products and spot exchanges.

Analyst Ted has, however, issued a more cautious tone, indicating that even though the Coinbase Bitcoin premium is recovering now, until this trajectory stabilizes in favor of the upside, most BTC rallies will be sold.

Perhaps that is exactly where the market sits, a state that is not fully reversed, but no longer bleeding. This aligns with a recent BeInCrypto analysis that highlighted lingering liquidity concerns despite the Bitcoin price climbing over $90,000.

With whales increasing longs, US sell pressure cooling, funding rates going negative, macro flipping bullish, and ETF inflows reappearing, analysts say Bitcoin is entering its first legitimate window for upside since early November.