Arizona lawmaker proposes barring taxes on crypto and blockchain

CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index is up $96.91 today or 0.11% to $88312.39

• Highest 4 p.m. level since Dec. 14, 2025, when it traded at $88584.66
• Up three of the past four days
• Down 3.31% month-to-date
• Down 5.46% year-to-date
• Down 30.06% from its all-time intraday high of $126272.76 on Oct. 6, 2025
• Down 5.07% from 52 weeks ago (Dec. 23, 2024), when it traded at $93032.91
• Down 30.06% from its 52-week intraday high of $126272.76 on Oct. 6, 2025
• Up 18.08% from its 52-week intraday low of $74435.56 on April 7, 2025
• Traded as high as $90513.12; highest intraday level since Dec. 13, 2025
• Up 2.60% at today's intraday high

Note: CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index (XBX) at 4 p.m. ET close

Data compiled by Dow Jones Market Data

Bitcoin treasury company Strategy (ticker MSTR) said Monday that it has increased its U.S. dollar reserve to $2.19 billion after raising about $748 million through the sale of common shares. The expanded cash reserve is sufficient to cover the company’s interest and dividend obligations for roughly 32 months and should help it withstand challenging market conditions, according to investment bank TD Cowen’s TD Securities unit.

“The move underscores the company’s balance sheet strength and should alleviate concerns about its ongoing viability, even in a prolonged ‘crypto winter’ scenario,” TD Securities analysts led by Lance Vitanza wrote in a report on Monday. “Shoring up liquidity during times of stress is always prudent, in our view, and we believe all Strategy stakeholders are materially better off" as a result of these actions.

TD Securities reiterated its buy rating on Strategy, maintaining a $500 price target over the next 12 months. Strategy shares were trading around $165 at the time of writing, down over 43% year-to-date, according to The Block’s MSTR price page.

“With potential upside to our target nearly 200%, we recognize that our price target may seem ‘out of context,’” the analysts wrote. However, given Strategy’s "embedded leverage to underlying bitcoin price activity combined with significant volatility in both bitcoin price and Strategy's bitcoin premium, our price target represents a reasonable outcome in one year's time," they added.

Strategy's USD reserve 

Strategy first disclosed details of its USD reserve on Dec. 1, when it said it had raised $1.44 billion to build a liquid cash buffer to support dividend payments on preferred stock and interest on outstanding debt. Over the past four weeks, the company has sold more than 22 million shares — roughly in line with average daily trading volume — without disrupting market liquidity, the analysts noted.

"In moving so aggressively to shore up its balance sheet, Strategy has gone a long way toward putting to bed any lingering questions around its ongoing access to the capital markets," the analysts wrote. "Concerns around the viability of Strategy's balance sheet are overblown, in our opinion."

Strategy is the world’s largest bitcoin treasury company, currently holding 671,268 bitcoin, worth over $59 billion, according to The Block’s Data Dashboard. TD Cowen continues to forecast that Strategy could own about 835,000 bitcoin by the end of fiscal year 2027. “We forecast intrinsic bitcoin value of roughly $380 per share in one year's time and $515 in two years' time," the analysts added.

The analysts also pointed to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s request for public feedback on a proposed “payment account” — sometimes referred to as a “skinny master account” — that could give certain eligible institutions, potentially including some crypto-related firms, limited access to Fed payment rails. The move signals growing openness to crypto firms’ participation in the financial system, and as a result, “a ‘crypto spring’ looks at least as likely to us,” the analysts wrote.

Disclaimer: The Block is an independent media outlet that delivers news, research, and data. As of November 2023, Foresight Ventures is a majority investor of The Block. Foresight Ventures invests in other companies in the crypto space. Crypto exchange Bitget is an anchor LP for Foresight Ventures. The Block continues to operate independently to deliver objective, impactful, and timely information about the crypto industry. Here are our current financial disclosures.

© 2025 The Block. All Rights Reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

Dogecoin is doing that thing again, not pumping, not capitulating, just sitting there on the weekly like it’s waiting for a cue. And if you’re the type who still believes memes have market structure like in 2017 and 2021, one chart making the rounds on X says this is exactly what the pre-run “calm” has looked like before.

Crypto analyst Cryptollica (@Cryptollica) posted a weekly DOGE chart marking four major structural points across the coin’s history, arguing the current stretch maps onto prior accumulation phases.

“We are looking at a textbook fractal setup,” Cryptollica wrote. “The chart highlights four distinct structural points (1, 2, 3, 4). We are currently at Point 4, and the structure is rhyming perfectly with the pre-bull run accumulation phases of the past.”

Will History Repeat For Dogecoin?

The pitch is basically: zoom out, stop staring at intraday noise, and look at the cycle cadence. In his framing, Zones 1 and 2 were the “boredom phases,” the stretches where volatility dried up, price rounded out a base, and the market slowly rotated from weak hands to more patient holders. Zone 2, he says, was the launchpad that ultimately led into the 2021 face-melter.

“Zones 1 & 2: These were the ‘boredom phases’ where volatility died, and smart money accumulated,” he wrote. “Zone 2 specifically was the launchpad for the massive 2021 parabolic run. Zone 4 (Current Price Action): We are seeing the exact same rounding bottom formation.”

That “rounding bottom” bit matters, because it’s not the dramatic reversal traders love to screenshot. It’s the opposite. It’s price stabilizing, forming a heavy base, refusing to break down — and doing it slowly enough that most people stop paying attention. Which, again, is kind of the point.

Then there’s the RSI argument, and it’s the cleaner one. Cryptollica highlighted a weekly RSI floor around the low-30s area, suggesting DOGE has repeatedly found major cycle bottoms when momentum reset to that band. “Look at the RSI indicator at the bottom. The red line (~32 level) acts as a historical floor,” he wrote. “Every single time the weekly RSI touched or hovered near this baseline (Points 1, 2, and 3), it marked a macro bottom. Now: The RSI has reset back to this critical support level.”

That’s the “sellers are exhausted” claim — not because a candle says so today, but because the longer-term momentum gauge has already done the full trip down to where DOGE previously stopped bleeding out and started building again.

And he’s not being subtle about what comes next, at least in the cleanest version of the fractal. “This isn’t just random noise; it’s a cyclical reset,” Cryptollica wrote. “The chart suggests we are in the ‘Golden Pocket’ for accumulation. If the fractal plays out like it did in 2020 (Zone 2), the current price action is simply the calm before the storm.”

To be clear, fractals aren’t guarantees. DOGE isn’t trading in a vacuum, and the macro/liquidity backdrop can absolutely mess with tidy historical comparisons. But if history repeats for DOGE, the best days could be ahead.

At press time, Dogecoin traded at $0.13294.

Bitcoin is holding above $88,000–$90,000 as of December 22, but the market structure beneath the price looks increasingly fragile. Recent volatility, thinning liquidity, and fading demand have raised concerns that crypto may be transitioning from a late bull phase into an early bear market heading into January 2026. 

Several on-chain and market-structure indicators now point in the same direction. None of these signals confirms a full bear market on their own. Together, however, they suggest rising downside risk and weakening support.

Bitcoin’s Apparent Demand Growth Is Rolling Over

Bitcoin’s apparent demand growth tracks how much new buying pressure exists relative to available supply.

The latest data shows demand growth slowing after multiple waves earlier in the cycle. While Bitcoin price remained elevated through much of 2025, demand failed to make new highs. 

This divergence indicates that price strength relied more on momentum and leverage than on fresh spot buying.

Historically, when demand growth flattens or declines while price stays high, markets shift from accumulation into distribution. This often marks the early stages of a bear market or long consolidation.

US Spot Bitcoin ETF Inflows Are Losing Momentum

US spot Bitcoin ETFs have been the strongest source of structural demand in this cycle.

In 2024, ETF inflows accelerated steadily into the year-end. In contrast, Q4 2025 shows inflows flattening and, in some periods, declining. 

This shift is important because ETFs represent long-term capital rather than short-term trading.

When ETF demand slows while price remains high, it suggests large buyers are stepping back. Without sustained institutional inflows, Bitcoin becomes more vulnerable to volatility driven by derivatives and speculative positioning.

Dolphin Wallets Are Reducing Exposure

Wallets holding 100 to 1,000 BTC, often referred to as “dolphins,” are typically associated with sophisticated investors and funds.

The latest data shows a sharp decline in dolphin holdings on a one-year basis. Similar behavior appeared in late 2021 and early 2022, ahead of deeper market drawdowns.

This does not signal panic selling. 

Instead, it points to risk reduction by experienced holders. Historically, when this cohort distributes while price remains elevated, it reflects expectations of lower returns or prolonged consolidation ahead.

Funding Rates Are Trending Lower Across Exchanges

Funding rates measure the cost traders pay to hold leveraged positions.

Across major exchanges, Bitcoin funding rates have entered a clear downward trend. This indicates waning demand for leverage, even as price remains relatively high.

In bull markets, strong rallies are supported by rising funding and persistent long demand. 

In contrast, falling funding rates suggest traders are less confident and less willing to pay to stay long. This environment often precedes choppy price action or broader trend reversals.

Bitcoin Broke Below the 365-Day Moving Average

The 365-day moving average is a long-term trend indicator that historically separates bull markets from bear markets.

Bitcoin has now crossed below this level for the first sustained period since early 2022. Previous macro-driven sell-offs in 2024 and early 2025 tested this level but failed to close below it.

A sustained break below the 365-day average does not guarantee a crash. However, it signals a shift in long-term momentum and increases the probability that rallies will face stronger resistance.

How Low Could Bitcoin Go If a Bear Market Develops?

If these signals continue to align, historical data offers a reference point rather than a prediction.

Bitcoin’s realized price, currently near $56,000, represents the average cost basis of all holders. In prior bear markets, Bitcoin often bottomed near or slightly below this level.

That does not mean Bitcoin must fall to $56,000. It does suggest that, in a full bear scenario, long-term buyers historically step in closer to that zone.

Between current levels and realized price lies a wide range of potential outcomes, including prolonged sideways movement rather than a sharp decline.

What This Means for the Market Right Now

As of December 22, Bitcoin remains range-bound with thin liquidity and high sensitivity to leverage-driven moves. Retail participation appears cautious, while institutional flows have slowed.

Altcoins remain more exposed than Bitcoin. They rely more heavily on retail demand and suffer more quickly when liquidity thins.

Taken together, these five charts suggest crypto may be entering a late-cycle distribution phase, with rising risk of a bear market emerging in early 2026 if demand does not recover.

The trend is weakening, not broken beyond repair. But the margin for error is shrinking.

Strategy added $747.8 million in net proceeds from the sale of common stock last week to its cash reserves and paused its Bitcoin purchases, as the company rebalances its assets amid the crypto downturn.

According to a post by Strategy executive chairman Michael Saylor, the company's cash reserves now stand at $2.19 billion, while its crypto stash is at 671,268 Bitcoin (BTC).

Ethereum treasury giant BitMine has now surpassed 4 million Ethereum tokens. The firm now owns approximately 3.37% of the total global supply of the flagship altcoin. 

Having added over 500,000 ETH in the last 30 days alone, BitMine is now substantially closer to its goal of controlling 5% of the supply. They aim to force the price up by removing liquidity from exchanges.

The firm began its extremely aggressive Ethereum acquisition strategy in early July 2025. The pivot initially resulted in a massive spike. However, it was rather short-lived. 

Prior to that, it was primarily known for Bitcoin mining and immersion technology. 

Latest Tom Lee controversy 

After stunning market observers with its initial success, the firm is under pressure due to falling prices. 

The notorious permabull would claim that ETH was entering a "supercycle" during his various media appearances. He has cited uber-bullish targets like $15,000 by year-end 2025 with seemingly unwavering confidence. 

However, Fundstrat, Lee's research firm, is now privately predicting that ETH will nose-dive to $1,800–$2,000 in the first half of 2026.

The report advises wealthy clients to "raise cash and stablecoin balances" and wait for a crash to buy back in lower. It cites four key headwinds as the US government shutdown, trade policy uncertainty, AI fatigue, as well as uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve. 

Some have now accused Lee of creating "exit liquidity" for his private clients.

If Fundstrat’s private prediction comes true and ETH drops to $1,800, the value of BitMine’s treasury could collapse by 40% or more.

A drop from roughly $3,000 to $1,800 on a 4 million ETH portfolio represents a potential loss of $4.8 billion in book value.

Since BMNR stock trades based on its ETH holdings (NAV), a 40% drop in ETH value would likely crash the stock price.