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This column will continuously track developments in the China–U.S. trade war, interpret policy changes, and assess their far-reaching impact on global markets, supply chains, and investment patterns—providing readers with insightful and forward-looking perspectives.
The traditional “India–Pakistan conflict” centered on Kashmir is evolving. India’s growing alignment with Israel and stance on Palestine highlight shifting dynamics. This column examines India’s position on the Palestinian issue, its role in the Islamic world, and the wider impact on the Global South, religious identity, and global order—where conflict now also means a clash of values.
To quickly learn market dynamics and follow market focuses in 15 min.
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By Caitlin McCabe and Joe Wallace
John Paulson made a vast fortune betting against the U.S. housing market in what was dubbed "the greatest trade ever." And his next act — a yearslong wager on gold — is finally turning out to be a another great trade.
More than a decade and a half after Paulson went big on gold, the billionaire investor has emerged as one of the winners from the record-setting surge in the price of the precious metal.
President Trump's trade war and threats to fire the head of the Federal Reserve shook confidence in the dollar and propelled gold prices above $3,500 a troy ounce last week. Gold rose this year even as stocks and bonds floundered.
Rather than cashing out, Paulson is doubling down, tossing in $800 million to buy a big stake in a remote gold mine in a rugged region of southwestern Alaska.
"There's only one reserve that in physical form will protect you against all these things for literally millennia," said Paulson, rattling off a list of scenarios ranging from inflation to the confiscation of assets by governments.
Gold has been prized at least as far back as ancient Egypt, where King Tut was buried with a golden mask. It functioned for a long time as the bedrock of the monetary system. While President Richard Nixon unpegged the dollar from gold in 1971, tons of the metal still sit at Fort Knox and in central-bank reserves globally.
Survivalists and big money managers alike assert that gold is a proven hedge against various shocks: inflation, war, catastrophe and currency devaluation. Most of those crises aren't currently materializing in the U.S. But global geopolitical tensions, combined with a sliding dollar and expectations that central banks will keep buying the metal, have strengthened Paulson's conviction in bullion.
Owning gold isn't always a winner. It costs money to store and doesn't pay interest, as bonds do. And there have been long stretches during which stocks and bonds have left gold in the dust.
Paulson became a gold believer when he was relishing the riches of his bet that the U.S. housing market would collapse. His hedge-fund firm had just made $15 billion in 2007, with Paulson's personal cut amounting to nearly $4 billion — equivalent to more than $10 million a day.
The Fed had embarked on quantitative easing in response to the 2008-09 financial crisis, and Paulson worried the program would lead to a surge of inflation.
He piled into gold when it traded at around $900 a troy ounce. His early bets paid off. He at one point offered investors gold-denominated versions of his hedge-fund strategies.
But Paulson's expectation of an inflation burst never materialized, and parts of his wagers — including bets on mining stocks — suffered. Investments in other sectors, such as pharmaceutical companies and bank stocks, also dragged on returns.
He converted his hedge-fund firm into a private investment manager in 2020, handling money for himself, his employees and related entities.
In the years since, he became entangled in a bitter legal dispute with a former employee whom he fired in Puerto Rico, hosted a fundraiser for Trump at his Florida mansion and was briefly considered to be in the running for Treasury secretary.
Gold eventually started to glitter again, burnished by Covid-era stimulus, inflation, war and sanctions.
Paulson doesn't disclose the entirety of his gold holdings. He has exposure to the metal through derivatives positions, he said, but mostly invests through miners. He doesn't own physical gold.
His investments in listed mining companies are valued at around $840 million, according to Marcelo Kim, a partner at Paulson's investment firm who oversees gold investments. All eight of the mining stocks he reported holding to U.S. regulators as of December are up this year — with many of them increasing more than 30%.
As Paulson sees it, miners' profits increase — sometimes several times over — as gold prices rise, while the costs of mining remain relatively fixed. He still sees room for profit even if the metal's price retreats.
Most of his current bets are on upstart miners. Through his private investment firm, Paulson & Co., he owns stakes in companies including Perpetua Resources, Agnico Eagle Mines and International Tower Hill Mines.
"We really shifted our focus to mine development because that's where you can get your biggest bang for the buck," Paulson said. "You don't need the gold price to go up to receive high returns."
Kim has visited some 150 mines in Africa, Australia, Asia, Europe and North America, including the gold deposit in Alaska that Paulson agreed to invest in last week.
To buy the stake in the Alaskan mine, Paulson teamed up with fellow a gold advocate, Thomas Kaplan, chair of the exploration company NovaGold Resources. They purchased Barrick Gold's 50% stake in the Donlin project in Alaska for $1 billion. Paulson's $800 million contribution gives him a 40% stake in the mine.
Paulson is looking at what he believes will be a windfall at Donlin: The undeveloped high-grade deposit contains an estimated 39 million ounces of gold, equivalent to about a quarter of the holdings at Fort Knox.
It is a big undertaking . A 2021 technical report suggested that capital costs would be about $7.4 billion, plus $1.7 billion over the mine's life.
A 30-mile road to the nearest port and a natural-gas pipeline might need to be built, according to the Alaskan natural-resource department. The closest population center to the mine site, which sits on native lands, is a tiny village called Crooked Creek. Industry players said even if everything goes to plan, the mine isn't likely to start producing gold until the early 2030s.
"This is going to be a monster asset that's going to last for 50 years plus," Paulson said.
Write to Caitlin McCabe at caitlin.mccabe@wsj.com and Joe Wallace at joe.wallace@wsj.com
Energy stocks were softer late Friday afternoon, with the NYSE Energy Sector Index 0.3% lower and the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) shedding 0.4%.
The Philadelphia Oil Service Sector index was down 0.4%, and the Dow Jones US Utilities index eased 0.3%.
Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose 0.7% to $63.25 a barrel, and the global benchmark Brent crude contract advanced 0.8% to $67.05 a barrel. Henry Hub natural gas futures added 1% to $3.13 per 1 million BTU.
In corporate news, Ring Energy shares gained 3.6%. The company late Thursday reaffirmed its oil and sales volumes forecast despite cutting its outlook for Q2 capital spending following a recent decrease in oil prices.
American Water Works is expected to post Q1 earnings ahead of consensus thanks to a strong pickup in revenue recoveries during the early part of the year, UBS said. UBS downgraded the stock to neutral from buy, but raised its price target by $4 to $160. American Water shares were down 1.4%.
Portland General Electric shares were falling 3.8%. The company reported Q1 net income of $0.91 per share, down from $1.08 a year ago. Analysts polled by FactSet expected $0.93.
BP activist investor Elliott Investment Management wants a new person to head the company's strategy and succeed Giulia Chierchia, who leads its strategy, sustainability, and ventures arm, Reuters reported. BP shares added 0.4%.
WINNIPEG, Manitoba--Intercontinental Exchange canola futures extended its rally on Friday to a fourth consecutive session. Prices finished at levels not seen since December 2023.
Tightening canola supplies continued to be a major driver in the upswing. The Canadian Grain Commission reported canola exports surpassed 7.50 million tonnes this week, the same amount Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada projected for 2024/25. There are still 15 weeks left in the marketing year.
An analyst suggested AAFC could go negative with its estimate on feed waste dockage for canola until Statistics Canada revises its call on the oilseed's production for 2024/25. However, should that occur, it wouldn't be until September at the earliest.
Outside support for canola was mixed on Friday. There were gains in Malaysian palm oil and Chicago soymeal but declines in Chicago soybeans and soyoil while European rapeseed was mostly lower. Upticks in crude oil spilled over into the vegetable oils.
The Canadian dollar inched up on Friday afternoon with the loonie at 72.14 U.S. cents compared to Thursday's close of 72.09.
There were 58,308 contracts traded on Friday, compared to 58,092 on Thursday. Spreading accounted for 30,584 contracts traded.
Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne:
Price Change
May 697.30 up 4.90
Jul 701.80 up 4.40
Nov 660.40 up 3.30
Jan 666.10 up 5.00
Spread trade prices are in Canadian dollars and the volume represents the number of spreads:
Months Prices Volume
May/Jul 4.00 under to 6.40 under 6,613
May/Nov 36.90 over to 31.00 over 7
Jul/Nov 43.80 over to 35.30 over 5,630
Jul/Jan 35.70 over to 31.80 over 10
Jul/Mar 36.30 over to 28.70 over 3
Nov/Jan 3.10 under to 6.10 under 1,862
Jan/Mar 1.90 under to 4.60 under 844
Mar/May 1.00 under to 3.00 under 123
May/Jul 1.40 under 200
Source: Commodity News Service Canada, news@marketsfarm.com
Source: CME Group
For previous business day
PREV TOTAL subject to revisions. Source: CME Group
Prev Net Total
Platinum Total Received Withdrawn Change Adjustment Today
ASAHI DEPOSITORY LLC
Registered 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eligible 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 0 0 0 0 0 0
BRINK'S, INC.
Registered 110,968 0 0 0 0 110,968
Eligible 20,678 0 2,437 -2,437 0 18,242
Total 131,646 0 2,437 -2,437 0 129,209
CNT DEPOSITORY, INC.
Registered 1,246 0 0 0 0 1,246
Eligible 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 1,246 0 0 0 0 1,246
DELAWARE DEPOSITORY
Registered 3,825 0 0 0 0 3,825
Eligible 21,450 0 0 0 0 21,450
Total 25,275 0 0 0 0 25,275
HSBC BANK, USA
Registered 1,295 0 0 0 0 1,295
Eligible 34,465 0 147 -147 0 34,318
Total 35,760 0 147 -147 0 35,613
INTERNATIONAL DEPOSITORY SERVICES OF DELAWARE
Registered 3,394 0 0 0 0 3,394
Eligible 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 3,394 0 0 0 0 3,394
JP MORGAN CHASE BANK NA
Registered 120,414 0 0 0 0 120,414
Eligible 1,144 0 0 0 0 1,144
Total 121,558 0 0 0 0 121,558
LOOMIS INTERNATIONAL (US) LLC
Registered 86,076 0 0 0 0 86,076
Eligible 33,285 0 5,545 -5,545 0 27,740
Total 119,361 0 5,545 -5,545 0 113,815
MALCA-AMIT USA, LLC
Registered 395 0 0 0 0 395
Eligible 197 0 0 0 0 197
Total 592 0 0 0 0 592
MANFRA, TORDELLA & BROOKES, INC.
Registered 5,501 0 0 0 0 5,501
Eligible 11,398 0 0 0 0 11,398
Total 16,900 0 0 0 0 16,900
STONEX PRECIOUS METALS LLC
Registered 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eligible 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 0 0 0 0 0 0
COMBINED TOTALS
Registered 333,114 0 0 0 0 333,114
Eligible 122,618 0 8,129 -8,129 0 114,489
Total 455,732 0 8,129 -8,129 0 447,603
Prev Net Total
Palladium Total Received Withdrawn Change Adjustment Today
ASAHI DEPOSITORY LLC
Registered 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eligible 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 0 0 0 0 0 0
BRINK'S, INC.
Registered 6,057 0 0 0 0 6,057
Eligible 15,930 0 0 0 0 15,930
Total 21,987 0 0 0 0 21,987
CNT DEPOSITORY, INC.
Registered 97 0 0 0 0 97
Eligible 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 97 0 0 0 0 97
DELAWARE DEPOSITORY
Registered 987 0 0 0 0 987
Eligible 3,306 0 98 -98 0 3,208
Total 4,292 0 98 -98 0 4,195
HSBC BANK, USA
Registered 586 0 0 0 0 586
Eligible 2,623 0 0 0 0 2,623
Total 3,209 0 0 0 0 3,209
INTERNATIONAL DEPOSITORY SERVICES OF DELAWARE
Registered 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eligible 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 0 0 0 0 0 0
JP MORGAN CHASE BANK NA
Registered 12,746 0 0 0 0 12,746
Eligible 728 0 0 0 0 728
Total 13,474 0 0 0 0 13,474
LOOMIS INTERNATIONAL (US) LLC
Registered 10,011 0 0 0 0 10,011
Eligible 301 0 0 0 0 301
Total 10,312 0 0 0 0 10,312
MALCA-AMIT USA, LLC
Registered 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eligible 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 0 0 0 0 0 0
MANFRA, TORDELLA & BROOKES, INC.
Registered 2,116 0 0 0 0 2,116
Eligible 630 0 0 0 0 630
Total 2,746 0 0 0 0 2,746
STONEX PRECIOUS METALS LLC
Registered 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eligible 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 0 0 0 0 0 0
COMBINED TOTALS
Registered 32,599 0 0 0 0 32,599
Eligible 23,518 0 98 -98 0 23,421
Total 56,118 0 98 -98 0 56,020
Write to Rodney Christian at csstat@dowjones.com
Lean hog futures on the CME settle up 1.1% to $1.0125 a pound, their highest level in roughly a year. Lean hogs were last at the $1.01 a pound level in late April of 2024, according to FactSet data. Hogs close higher despite traders and analysts debating the status of pork demand amid a lower level of slaughters. "Traders are looking ahead and not seeing any increase in pork demand," says ADM Investor Services in a note. "Unless packers increase slaughters... this week's slaughter is going to be like a storm market without storms." Live cattle futures also rose, inching up 0.1% to $2.084 a pound — a fraction of a cent below the record-high close recorded in March, which was $2.08475 a pound. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
Brent crude oil futures gained 0.5% to settle at $66.9 per barrel on Friday, but still posted a weekly loss of over 2% amid persistent oversupply concerns and uncertainty around U.S.-China trade talks.
Market sentiment remained cautious as reports indicated the U.S. and Russia are making progress toward ending the conflict in Ukraine, though key terms have yet to be finalized.
At the same time, several OPEC+ members are expected to advocate for a second consecutive month of accelerated output increases in June.
Kazakhstan, a significant member of the alliance, signaled it would prioritize national interests and not cut production at its major fields.
Conflicting statements from Washington and Beijing over tariff negotiations have added to the market’s volatility, despite indications that China may ease some levies on U.S. imports.
Adding to the geopolitical tensions, the U.S. imposed fresh sanctions this week on a key Iranian figure involved in crude and LPG shipping.
PALLADIUM - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE
OPTION AND FUTURES COMBINED POSITIONS AS OF 04/22/25 |
--------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
--------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------------
Long | Short |Spreads | Long | Short | Long | Short | Long | Short
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(CONTRACTS OF 100 TROY OUNCES) OPEN INTEREST: 21,234
COMMITMENTS
6,317 17,153 1,439 11,134 1,228 18,890 19,820 2,345 1,414
CHANGES FROM 04/15/25 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: -580)
-1,103 -115 -78 334 -88 -847 -280 267 -300
PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADER
29.7 80.8 6.8 52.4 5.8 89.0 93.3 11.0 6.7
NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 167)
66 61 26 34 14 114 87
PLATINUM - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE
OPTION AND FUTURES COMBINED POSITIONS AS OF 04/22/25 |
--------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
--------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------------
Long | Short |Spreads | Long | Short | Long | Short | Long | Short
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(CONTRACTS OF 50 TROY OUNCES) OPEN INTEREST: 83,308
COMMITMENTS
45,657 39,280 6,861 20,592 33,031 73,111 79,172 10,197 4,135
CHANGES FROM 04/15/25 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: 1,555)
878 642 81 990 766 1,948 1,489 -393 66
PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADER
54.8 47.2 8.2 24.7 39.6 87.8 95.0 12.2 5.0
NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 262)
131 63 50 47 40 201 132
Write to Valena Henderson at csstat@dowjones.com
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