2025 FastBull CFD Trading Contest Wraps Up, Revealing the Top Ten Traders!

Monday's talks to end the deadliest fighting in more than a decade between the Southeast Asian neighbours are being hosted by Malaysia, the chair of the regional ASEAN bloc. Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet said the talks were co-organised by the United States, and that China would also take part in them.Both Thailand and Cambodia accuse the other of starting the hostilities last week and then escalating them. On Monday, officials from both countries said clashes along the disputed border were ongoing ahead of the talks later in the day.

"We are not confident in Cambodia, their actions so far have reflected insincerity in solving the problem," acting Thai Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai told reporters ahead of his departure for Kuala Lumpur."Cambodia has violated international law, but everybody wants to see peace. Nobody wants to see violence that affects civilians."

Cambodia has strongly denied Thai accusations it has fired at civilian targets, and has instead said that Thailand has put innocent lives at risk. It has called for the international community to condemn Thailand's aggression against it."The purpose of this meeting is to achieve an immediate 'ceasefire', initiated by President Donald Trump and agreed to by the Prime Ministers of Cambodia and Thailand," Hun Manet said in a post on X as he departed for the talks.

Phumtham Wechayachai and Thailand's Minister of Foreign Affairs Maris Sangiampongsa walks after the press conference at the base of Wing 6 of the Royal Thai Air Force ahead of their departure to Malaysia for ceasefire talks on the deadly border conflict between Thailand and Cambodia that extended to a fifth day, in Bangkok, Thailand, July 28, 2025.

Thailand's acting prime minister, Phumtham Wechayachai and Thailand's Minister of Foreign Affairs Maris Sangiampongsa walks after the press conference at the base of Wing 6 of the Royal Thai Air Force ahead of their departure to Malaysia for ceasefire talks on the deadly border conflict between... Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab Read moreU.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said State Department officials would assist the peace efforts, after President Donald Trump had earlier said that he thought both leaders wanted to settle the conflict.

The tensions between Thailand and Cambodia have intensified since the killing in late May of a Cambodian soldier during a brief skirmish. Border troops on both sides were reinforced amid a full-blown diplomatic crisis that brought Thailand's fragile coalition government to the brink of collapse.Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim had proposed ceasefire talks soon after the border dispute erupted into conflict on Thursday, and China and the United States also offered to assist in negotiations.

Anwar said he expected to chair the negotiations after being asked by the two governments to try to find a peace settlement, state media agency Bernama reported on Sunday."So, I'm discussing the parameters, the conditions, but what is important is (an) immediate ceasefire," Anwar said.

Thailand and Cambodia have bickered for decades over undemarcated points along their 817-km (508-mile) land border, with ownership of the ancient Hindu temples Ta Moan Thom and the 11th century Preah Vihear central to the disputes.

Preah Vihear was awarded to Cambodia by the International Court of Justice in 1962, but the situation worsened in 2008 after Cambodia attempted to list it as a UNESCO World Heritage site. Skirmishes over several years brought at least a dozen deaths.Cambodia said in June it had asked the court to resolve its disputes with Thailand. Bangkok says it has never recognised the court's jurisdiction and prefers a bilateral approach.

Source: Reuters

Trade Deal Eases Tensions but Offers Limited Momentum

OPEC+ Meeting Looms as Next Market Driver

Global Trade Dynamics Remain Fluid

Source: Bloomberg

Mounting Fiscal Deficit Reflects Trade Pressures

Budget Strain Intensified by Weak Revenue Base

Deflation Risk and Policy Dilemma Intensify

Source: CNBC

Tariff news set to come in heavy, but will it impact markets?

Tariff-related headlines seen through Sunday have been meaningful, with the US-China tariff pause being extended by a further 90 days, and the US-EU forging an agreement that follows a similar model to that of last week's US-Japan deal. EU exporters will now face a 15% tariff rate to its US buyers, a far more friendly rate than the 30% rate they were facing – in exchange, the EU has committed to purchasing $750b in US energy products and some $600b in other investments.

The news flow from both the extension with China and the agreement with the EU is clearly market-friendly, and should put further upside potential into the EUR, where the single currency is already finding the love from FX players, and should also put renewed upside into EU equities.

Importantly, for those nations still looking to achieve a last-minute floor tariff rate (on US exports) of 15%, it's all too clear from the case studies with Indonesia and Japan is that the most important factor is committing to massive levels of investment spend. Trump will now sell this hard to the US voters as a huge win for the US - so expect Trump to address the nation in a presser shortly.

A lasting US-China deal remains a more complex issue, and while trade imbalances remain a major consideration, at the heart of any potential full agreement, we're likely going to see a commitment from China to massive investment spending.

China/HK equity leading the gains through July

For the China market watchers, the 24-member Politburo will gather to formulate plans for the balance of 2025. Market expectations for any new impactful policy initiatives are low, and the Chinese authorities will be quietly content to maintain the status quo, perhaps massaging around the edges, with its growth metrics tracking above its policy objectives. China and HK equity markets have been the star performers in July, so perhaps policymakers will see that as the market voting on increased confidence in China's economic trajectory.

Central banks in focus this week

We navigate G10 central bank meetings in the US (hold), Canada (hold) and Japan (hold), as well as in the LATAM/EM space, with policy decisions in South Africa (25bp cut expected), Chile (25bp cut expected), Columbia (25bp cut expected), and Brazil (no change).

Dissent within the Fed's ranks

While the BoJ meeting could be quite informative for JPY & NKY225 traders, it will likely be the FOMC meeting on Wednesday that gets the headlines, even if this is shaping up to be a low-impact event for US markets. Expect dissent from Chris Waller and Michelle Bowman, who should both vote for a 25bp cut at this meeting - a symbolic development, as the once galvanised and cohesive committee appears increasingly fractured and almost… dare I say it, politicised…

Dissent aside, Chair Powell will continue to guide that the board will take in the incoming data “over the summer” – with traders seeing a cut in the September FOMC meeting as more likely than not, the two nonfarm payrolls prints (31 July & 5 Sept) and two CPI prints (12 Aug & 11 Sept) that hit us in the lead up to the September FOMC meeting now take on additional significance.

A deluge of US and EU corporate earnings on the docket

It's the big week of the US corporate earnings season, with 38% of the S&P500 market cap set to report numbers for the quarter – the lineup includes Apple, Meta, Amazon and Microsoft, but we also hear from some of the retail trader favoured names, including Coinbase and Roblox. Traders look for these names to build on what has been a solid Q2 earnings season so far, a factor which has offered increasing tailwinds to the grind higher and consecutive ATHs in the S&P500 and NAS100 seen resulted in levels of cross asset volatility crushed.

Running the numbers, we see that a third of S&P500 companies have now reported earnings, with around 40% raising guidance, an outcome that is well above the levels seen in the Q1 reporting season. 83% of S&P 500 companies have beaten analysts' consensus expectations on EPS, with those beating doing so by an average of 6.9%.

It's also a big week on the European corporate earnings calendar, with c20% of the Euro Stoxx companies set to report.

US nonfarm payrolls are the main event of the week

The flow of economic data also comes in hot, with the labour market getting close inspection. US nonfarm payrolls (NFP) is the main event risk of the week, with the market modelling a central case of 109k jobs created in July, with the range of estimates (from economists) seen between 170k and zero. The prospect of downward revisions to the prior two NFP prints is high, but likely a secondary consideration for rates and FX traders. The unemployment rate is expected to tick up to 4.2%, with the average hourly earnings metric eyed at 3.8% (from 3.7%).

US interest rate swaps imply a 25bp cut in the September FOMC meeting at 64% probability – a sub-100k NFP, with prior NFP prints revised lower and a 4.2% U/E would probably be enough to see swaps pricing move towards 70% implied for a cut in September. The USD will take its direction from the US 2-year Treasury yield, which is most impacted by changes in Fed rate cut expectations. The S&P500 and NAS100 will be content to see payrolls coming in around 100-120k, as the combination of reasonable job growth and increased Fed cut expectations would feed the goldilocks investment backdrop.

While the NFP report takes centre stage, staying Stateside, traders also navigate the US JOLTS (job openings) report, weekly jobless claims and the Q2 employment cost index. The US Q2 GDP print and ISM manufacturing report may also get some attention.

Australia Q2 CPI set to guide expectations for a cut in August

In Australia, Q2 trimmed mean CPI (due on Wednesday) is expected to come in at 0.7% q/q / 2.7%, which if realised would continue to portray a moderation in price pressures – however, that outcome would also be a touch above the RBA's own central forecast of 2.6% y/y, and while Aussie interest rate swaps once again price a 25bp cut on 12 August as a done deal, it feels as though we'd need to see a trimmed mean print at or above 3% to derail a cut in the markets eyes.

In Europe, the preliminary July CPI release (due on Friday) may be one to keep an eye on for those holding EUR exposures - after the ECB last week suggested the bar to cut rates again in the near-term has been sufficiently raised, we'd likely need to see a strong downside surprise to the consensus call of 1.9% y/y to see the September ECB as a live event in the markets thinking.

Source: Pepperstone

Tourism Decline Reverberates Through Key Industries

Stock Market Struggles Amid Regional Divergence

Domestic Demand Weakens Under Heavy Household Debt

Market Outlook Remains Cautious

Source: Nikkei Asia

Breakdown Reveals Financially Conservative Structure

Tariff Reduction Offers Tangible Gains for Tokyo

Strategic Flexibility and Third-Party Inclusion

A Model for Other US Trade Partners?

Source: Bloomberg