ATFX Market Outlook – 27th April 2026  

Central Bank Super Week Begins as Middle East Risks Persist

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

Summary

·       U.S.–Iran peace talks remain stalled after Trump cancelled a planned negotiation trip to Pakistan. He said Iran can call him if it wants to end the conflict. A weekend shooting at a Washington event attended by Trump is unlikely to have a major impact on markets.  

·       The U.S. Department of Justice will conclude its investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell, potentially clearing the way for Kevin Warsh.  

·       Markets enter a “super central bank week,” with the Fed, ECB, BoE, BoJ, and BoC all set to make policy decisions. U.S. PCE inflation, major tech earnings, and developments in the Middle East may drive volatility throughout the week.

Global Market Review

U.S. equities closed at record highs on Friday, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq supported by optimism that the U.S. and Iran may begin talks to end their conflict. A sharp rally in Intel shares also helped semiconductor stocks extend their gains. For the week, the S&P 500 rose 0.55%, the Nasdaq gained 1.5%, while the Dow Jones fell 0.44%. U.S. Treasury yields moved higher in choppy trading, while the U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.24% to 98.53.

Gold prices rose last Friday but still recorded their first weekly decline in nearly five weeks, as persistent inflation concerns and uncertainty surrounding the U.S.–Iran situation kept markets cautious. U.S. crude oil futures closed lower on Friday after sharp intraday swings, but still gained nearly 13% for the week. In early Asian trading on Monday, oil prices surged as progress in U.S.–Iran peace talks remained limited.

Key Events Today:

14:00 EU GERMANY GfK Consumer Confidence MAY ** 
22:30 US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index APR **

Tomorrow:
07:30 JP Unemployment Rate MAR **  
11:00 BoJ Interest Rate Decision ***

14:30 BOJ Press Conference ***
22:00 US CB Consumer Confidence APR ** 
22:00 US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index APR **  

EURUSD

Resistance: 1.1771/1.1801
Support: 1.1674/1.1643

EUR/USD rose 0.27% to 1.1714 as the dollar slipped to 98.55, supported by optimism about possible U.S.-Iran peace talks despite cautious expectations for Fed rate decisions.

Analyst View: The rebound appears corrective rather than a trend reversal. Price is stabilising above 1.1674, but failure to reclaim 1.1771 leaves the structure fragile, with downside risks still lingering towards support.

Bias: Mildly Bullish

GBPUSD

Resistance: 1.3578/1.3600
Support: 1.3484/1.3465

GBP/USD remained supported by a softer dollar, while markets watched the upcoming BoE decision and rising expectations that UK rates may remain higher for longer.

Analyst View: Price is rebounding from support but remains within a broader corrective range. A sustained move above 1.3578 is required to revive bullish momentum; otherwise, consolidation may persist.

Bias: Mildly Bullish

USDJPY

Resistance: 159.86/160.13
Support: 159.00/158.73

USD/JPY fell 0.21% to 159.40 as the dollar softened, but the pair remained close to the sensitive 160 intervention zone ahead of the BoJ decision.

Analyst View: Price remains within a range below resistance, with repeated rejections near 160 signalling hesitation. A break above 160.13 could trigger an upside continuation, while a failure may pull price back towards 159.00 support.

Bias: Range-bound

US Crude Oil Futures (JUN)

Resistance: 101.06/105.00
Support: 93.18/89.31

WTI rose nearly 2% to around $96.15 as Iran’s tougher negotiating stance and renewed calls for military action revived concerns about supply disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.

Analyst View: Price is rebounding from support but remains capped below the descending trendline. A sustained break above $101.06 is needed to confirm upside continuation; otherwise, range-bound volatility may persist between $93 and $101.

Bias: Range-bound

Spot Gold (XAU/USD)

Resistance: 4765/4795
Support: 4638/4609

Spot Silver

Resistance: 77.80/80.45
Support: 71.98/69.38

Gold slipped below $4,700 in early Asia, with traders watching $4,650 as stronger Fed rate expectations, higher yields, and a firmer dollar put pressure on prices.

Analyst View: Price remains in a corrective phase below resistance, with lower highs intact. A break above $4,765 could signal a recovery, while a failure to hold above $4,765 keeps downside risk toward the $4,638 support.

Bias: Pressured near $4,700

Dow Jones Futures  

Resistance: 49751/50321
Support: 48854/48292

Dow futures fell 0.16% to 49,230.71 as investors weighed strong earnings momentum against oil-driven inflation concerns, Fed uncertainty, and geopolitical risk.

Analyst View: Price is stabilizing above support but lacks strong momentum. A break above 49,751 could reopen upside towards 50,300, while rejection keeps consolidation pressure near 48,854.

Bias: Mildly Bearish near 49,000

NASDAQ 100

Resistance: 27438/27813
Support: 26943/26548

NAS100 rose 1.63% to 24,836.60, supported by Intel’s 23.65% surge, strong semiconductor gains, and resilient technology-sector earnings momentum.

Analyst View: The uptrend remains intact, with higher lows intact. A move above 27,438 could extend the rally, while a failure to hold above 27,438 may trigger a pullback towards 26,943 support.

Bias: Bullish at High Levels

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

Resistance: 79474/80167

Support: 77700/77164

Bitcoin edged up 1.2% to $78,263.1 as traders looked past weaker prospects for U.S.-Iran peace and focused on stronger demand for institutional derivatives, with open interest in IBIT options surpassing $27.6 billion.

Analyst View: Momentum is gradually being rebuilt, with higher lows forming. A sustained push above $79,474 could pave the way towards $80K+, while failure may trigger a pullback towards the $77,700 support zone.

Bias: Bullish consolidation above $77,164

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