Trump’s One Big Beautifl Bill TLDR: Good or Bad for Bitcoin?

Publicly traded Bitcoin miner Hut 8 (ticker HUT) signed five-year capacity contracts with the Ontario Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) for four of its natural gas-fired power plants in the Canadian province.

A capacity contract is an agreement between a power generator and a grid operator where generators are paid to ensure a specified amount of electrical capacity is available during a set period, typically to meet peak demand or ensure grid reliability.

Hut 8 notes that the agreement will "deliver stable cash flows" for Far North Power Corp., a joint entity formed between Hut 8 and Macquarie Equipment Finance Ltd. The contracts include a weighted average payment of approximately CAD $530 per megawatt of power per day, according to the announcement.

"The contracted assets total 310 MW of nameplate capacity across four sites: Iroquois Falls, Kingston, Kapuskasing, and North Bay," the firm wrote.

The move represents the growing integration of Bitcoin mining facilities into existing grid operations and the expanding business lines pursued by miners that are now facing more competition following the programmatic Bitcoin network halving in 2024.

For instance, mining facilities in Texas, which maintain an independent grid, have long signed deals with the Electric Reliability Council of Texas operator to act as flexible load balancers during times of peak power demand.

Self mining

Meanwhile, Nasdaq-listed Cipher Mining (ticker CIFR) announced that it has surpassed expectations for its self-mining capacity at its new Black Pearl facility, which started hashing at the end of June.

"Hashrate will continue to increase at the site through the third quarter of 2025 as new mining rigs continue to be delivered in scheduled batches, gradually replacing legacy units," the firm wrote.

Self-mining capacity refers to the total computational power that a miner dedicates to mining Bitcoin using its own equipment and is a representation of a firm’s ability to earn Bitcoin rewards without relying on third-party mining pools or hosted services. The firm mined 160 BTC in June and sold 58, bringing its total held to 1,063 bitcoins.

Disclaimer: The Block is an independent media outlet that delivers news, research, and data. As of November 2023, Foresight Ventures is a majority investor of The Block. Foresight Ventures invests in other companies in the crypto space. Crypto exchange Bitget is an anchor LP for Foresight Ventures. The Block continues to operate independently to deliver objective, impactful, and timely information about the crypto industry. Here are our current financial disclosures.

© 2025 The Block. All Rights Reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

Bitcoin is holding steady above its 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), showing signs of underlying strength despite a lack of clear directional momentum. With rising trading volume and mixed technical indicators, the next move could swing either way, keeping the market on edge.

RSI Holds Neutral As Bitcoin Awaits A Clearer Signal

According to Shaco AI, in a recent update on X, Bitcoin is currently hovering around $107,264.17, positioning itself just above two key moving averages. It’s nudging the 25-day SMA at $107,229.82 and holding slightly above the 50-day SMA, which sits at $107,040.81. This positioning reflects a mild bullish bias in recent sessions, keeping both bulls and bears on alert.

Looking at momentum indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is resting at 53.36—firmly in neutral territory. This suggests that Bitcoin is neither overbought nor oversold at the moment, offering no strong directional clues as it keeps the market guessing.

Furthermore, the Average Directional Index (ADX) adds to this indecisive mood, coming in at a soft 20.44. This low reading signals a weak trend, meaning there’s not enough force from bulls or bears to drive a clear breakout just yet. In other words, the market isn’t leaning heavily in either direction.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in negative territory at -137.33. Although it isn’t signaling any strong downward momentum, traders may want to stay cautious and alert for any sudden shift in the current tone.

Despite the technical indecision, market activity is picking up. Bitcoin’s recent trading volume has surged to 1903.51, well above the average of 1522.43. This uptick signals a rise in interest and participation, indicating that traders are actively positioning themselves in anticipation of Bitcoin’s next move.

Critical Zones At Play As Market Prepares For A Directional Push

Looking at key levels, Shaco AI highlighted that resistance is at $108,789.99, which seems to be a strong level to overcome. The level marks a significant ceiling for Bitcoin, and any attempt to push higher will need solid momentum to break through. On the other hand, support lies at $104,622.02. This support level will be critical in case the price begins to retreat, as a breakdown here could open the door for further downside.

Based on current indicators, the analyst suggests it’s wise to keep an eye out for potential movement in either direction. With volume picking up, Bitcoin may soon test either the resistance above or fall back to support, depending on how momentum develops in the coming sessions.

Bitcoin faced a challenging start to July, influenced by broader macroeconomic pressures. Yet, the largest cryptocurrency has demonstrated remarkable resilience. Many market observers remain positive, with some speculating that Bitcoin could soon reach a new all-time high.

Analysts cite several key factors fueling this optimism, including growing market liquidity, a weakening dollar, historical trends, and positive technical indicators.

These Key Drivers Suggest a Potential Bitcoin Price Surge

BeInCrypto reported yesterday that the renewed feud between Donald Trump and billionaire Elon Musk put downward pressure on the broader market. Thus, Bitcoin also suffered.

However, BTC managed to recover its gains. At the time of writing, it traded at $107,688, up 1.05% over the past day.

With BTC just 3.8% from its record high, analysts are growing increasingly hopeful that this gap will close soon. Three key factors support this view.

The first is the M2 money supply. According to the latest data, the US M2 money supply has reached a record high of $21.94 trillion.

Historically, Bitcoin has shown a strong correlation with M2. If this pattern continues, BTC may soon follow suit. Moreover, rising M2 also signals more money in circulation, which can lead to inflationary pressures and a weaker dollar.

In fact, recent Barchart data shows that the US Dollar Index (DXY) has dropped to levels not seen since February 2022.

Once again, Bitcoin has demonstrated an inverse relationship with the DXY. Investors often turn to Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation as the dollar weakens. This trend could drive prices higher.

Next, in addition to the M2 money supply, several major indices, including NVIDIA, S&P 500, and the US100, have reached new all-time highs (ATH). But how does Bitcoin benefit from this?

Over the past five years, Bitcoin and the S&P 500 have shown a strong correlation. Therefore, Bitcoin may also experience positive momentum.

Lastly, a significant reduction in Bitcoin’s supply on exchanges has emerged as a bullish indicator. According to data from Glassnode, Bitcoin’s percent supply on exchanges has dropped to 14.5%, the lowest since August 2018.

This decline suggests reduced selling pressure as investors move holdings to long-term storage, a classic precursor to price rallies.

Moreover, analyst Crypto Rover highlighted a bull flag pattern on the BTC price chart. A bull flag is a chart pattern indicating a continuation of an uptrend, so Bitcoin could continue moving north.

BTC Market Structure Favors Upside, But Challenges Remain

While all these factors create a compelling case for Bitcoin’s next rally, Ray Youssef, CEO of NoOnes, remains cautiously optimistic.

He acknowledged that traditional stocks’ performance and the macroeconomic conditions, like a falling dollar, support a bullish outlook.

However, the executive believes that Bitcoin still needs a clear macro catalyst to emerge. In the absence of this, the market appears cautious and reluctant to break higher.

Youssef stressed that if the price fails to stay above $107,000, the short-term outlook could shift, with potential targets of $105,000 or even $102,000 coming into play.

Key takeaways:

• Bitcoin’s STH cost basis, MVRV data, and other technical indicators suggest that BTC price is on track toward $117,000.

• Analysts suggest a breakout above $109,000-$110,000 could push BTC to fresh all-time highs.

Bitcoin has been trading in a “well-defined” range over the past six months as traders anticipate a potential breakout.

Onchain indicators, including the short-term holder (STH) cost basis, point to a potential upward breakout toward $117,000 or higher.

Bitcoin price eyes $117,000 next

Since January, Bitcoin’s price has generally traded in a large range stretching from $78,000 to $110,000, per data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.

This is a “well-defined” range marked by the short-term holder (STH) cost basis bands, according to onchain analytics platform Glassnode. STH cost basis refers to the average purchase price of investors who have held Bitcoin for less than 155 days.

The price touched the upper band of this metric in May at $112,000, when it hit its current all-time high. If BTC rises to retest the line, it will likely rise toward $117,000 in the short term.

“The upper boundary of the STH cost basis was tested only once in late May and currently stands at $117,113,” the market intelligence firm said in a July 2 post on X, adding: