Weak Data! A Downward Trend Has Formed in AUDUSD

Summary:

The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.7% year-on-year in February, a slight deceleration from the 3.8% rise in the previous month and below market expectations.

SELL AUDUSD

EXP

TRADING

0.69759

Entry Price

0.67000

0.72000

0.69655 -0.00308 -0.44%

0.0

Pips

Flat

0.67000

Exit Price

0.69759

Entry Price

0.72000

Fundamentals

After eight years of negotiations, Australia and the European Union formally signed a free trade agreement on Tuesday. Under the agreement, both sides will eliminate tariffs on nearly all goods, while the EU will gain easier access to Australia's critical minerals. However, some Australian agricultural exports will still face quota limitations, with access conditions for beef and lamb generating controversy. Australian farmers criticized the market access provided by the agreement as "subpar," while French farmers considered the quotas too lenient. Amidst increased U.S. tariffs under the Trump administration and growing Western concerns over China's dominance in critical minerals like rare earths, both sides intensified negotiations, ultimately reaching an accord. On the same day, the parties also signed an agreement to deepen security and defense cooperation. European Commission President Ursula Gertrud von der Leyen stated in a release: "Although the EU and Australia are geographically distant, we are very close in how we see the world. By establishing these dynamic new partnerships, we are becoming more closely connected in security, defense, and trade."

Technical Analysis

Analyzing the AUDUSD in the 4H timeframe, the Bollinger Bands are widening downwards, and the moving averages are diverging, indicating a downward trend. The price is oscillating between the middle and lower Bollinger Bands, moving downwards. While the MACD's MACD line and signal line have formed a golden cross, the downward momentum has not significantly decreased, suggesting the trend remains unchanged. The RSI is at 41, reflecting a pessimistic market sentiment, with the RSI highs progressively lowering. Support is observed near the EMA800. In the 1D timeframe, the Bollinger Bands are also widening downwards, and the moving averages are diverging, signaling the commencement of a bearish trend. The MACD's MACD line and signal line are nearing the zero line, and the death cross continues, with the RSI at 44 and highs also gradually decreasing. In the short term, the pair is likely to fall towards the EMA200 and the psychological levels of 0.67 and 0.69. Therefore, the recommended strategy is to sell on rallies.

Weak Data! A Downward Trend Has Formed in AUDUSD_1

Weak Data! A Downward Trend Has Formed in AUDUSD_2

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 0.7

Target Price: 0.67

Stop Loss: 0.72

Support: 0.63, 0.68, 0.67

Resistance: 0.715, 0.737, 0.75

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Weak Data! A Downward Trend Has Formed in AUDUSD

Risk Disclosure