USD/JPY Weakens Around 143.65 as BoJ Maintains Dovish Stance and USD Pressured by US Economic Data

Summary:

USD/JPY traded around 143.65 as the yen received support from news that the BoJ maintained its ultra-easy policy while the dollar was under pressure from weak US jobs data...

SELL USDJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

143.650

Entry Price

142.500

144.200

154.260 -1.965 -1.26%

55.0

Pips

Loss

142.500

144.200

Exit Price

143.650

Entry Price

144.200

Macro Overview

The BoJ kept its interest rate unchanged at 0.5% at its June meeting and said it would only consider raising interest rates when the domestic economy and inflation were strong enough, given that core inflation had yet to reach 2% sustainably. The BoJ also said it would continue to scale back bond purchases as planned, but did not change its overall easing policy, keeping real interest rates in Japan low and limiting further depreciation pressure on the JPY. Meanwhile, in the United States, the ADP report for May 2025 recorded only 37,000 new jobs, much lower than the forecast of 110,000, making the Fed tend to maintain a "wait and see" stance and postpone raising interest rates in the coming months. The recent stream of less positive US economic data also includes declines in the ISM services index and manufacturing PMI, reducing demand for holding USD compared to currencies like JPY which are considered safe havens..

Market psychology

Sentiment on USD/JPY is shifting to a more “risk-off” stance as hedge funds’ net long JPY position increased to 164,000 contracts, down from 167,300 contracts last week, suggesting speculators are waiting for more macro signals before resuming USD longs.

The Asia-Pacific currency group’s “Fear Greed” index has remained around neutral – slightly tilted toward “fear,” indicating indecision for USD/JPY as both sides are weighed down by weak economic data and an uncertain policy outlook. In addition, institutional capital is still moving away from overbought USD positions as the greenback is pressured by expectations of a Fed rate hike delay, while the JPY is slightly supported by its “safe haven” role and the BoJ’s indirect intervention through monetary easing. Data from FXStreet also shows that USD/JPY is under pressure as global risk sentiment temporarily cools.

Technical analysis

USD/JPY Weakens Around 143.65 as BoJ Maintains Dovish Stance and USD Pressured by US Economic Data_1

On the M15 chart, USD/JPY is currently trading around 143.65, just below the estimated MA20 of the Bollinger Bands (20, 0, 2) at 143.85, with the upper and lower bands around 145.00 and 142.50 respectively. The price breaking below the MA20 suggests that technical selling pressure is increasing in the short term. The M15 Tenkan-sen (9) at 143.90 has crossed below the M15 Kijun-sen (26) around 144.10, sending out a clear short-term sell signal.. The Kumo M15 currently has two Senkou Span A and B lines at 144.30 and 144.50 respectively, acting as a resistance zone of 144.30–144.50, making it difficult for the price to break out without a significant breakout. The Stochastic (5, 3, 3) M15 indicator is remaining below 50, approaching the oversold zone (below 20), signaling that selling pressure still has room to continue pushing the price down to the support zone around 142.50. At the same time, the RSI (14) M15 fluctuates around 45, not yet in the oversold zone (below 30) but is showing a slight downward trend, implying that the short-term downtrend is still being consolidated.

Trading Recommendations

Entry: 143,65

Take Profit: 142,50

Stop Loss: 144,20

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USD/JPY Weakens Around 143.65 as BoJ Maintains Dovish Stance and USD Pressured by US Economic Data

Macro Overview

Market psychology

Technical analysis

Trading Recommendations

Risk Disclosure