The deterioration across multiple fronts shows no signs of easing. Reports indicate that the United States has begun preparations for potential military action against Iran, with the operation possibly lasting up to 100 days or extending into September. Previously, a U.S. oil tanker was struck by a missile in the northern Persian Gulf and remains ablaze. Iran has explicitly warned against any military or commercial vessels affiliated with the U.S., Israel, or their supporters entering the area. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov further noted that one of the goals of the U.S. and Israel is to draw Gulf nations into conflict with Iran. This escalating tension has made the Middle East a global focal point, casting a deeper shadow over energy supply and inflation prospects. In terms of supply, demand, and market sentiment, data from the World Gold Council shows that global gold ETFs saw a net inflow of $5.3 billion in February, marking the ninth consecutive month of positive flows and the strongest annual start on record. As a result, the total assets under management (AUM) for global gold funds climbed to an all-time high of $701 billion, with holdings reaching 4,171 metric tons. North America and Asia were the main drivers of this capital inflow. However, short-term market sentiment has shown significant volatility: CME Group announced it would lower the initial margin requirement for COMEX gold futures from 9% to 7%, and for silver futures from 18% to 14%, effective at the close of trading on March 6th. At the same time, the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR, reduced its holdings by 18 metric tons on Wednesday, the largest single-day reduction in over a decade. Notably, the Governor of Poland's central bank stated plans to sell part of the country's approximately 550 metric tons of gold reserves to raise to $13 billion for national defense. Following the announcement, spot gold prices briefly fell by about $70, reflecting the direct impact of the news on short-term sentiment. Despite the market turbulence, renowned investor Ray Dalio reiterated his long-term bullish outlook on gold. He believes gold holds an irreplaceable position in the ongoing "rivalry" between gold and Bitcoin and recommends allocating 5% to 15% of personal portfolios to gold as a risk diversification strategy. Phillip Nova analyst Priyanka Sachdeva demonstrated in her report that although tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate, an unexpected strengthening of the dollar may exert sustained pressure on gold prices. She added that investors should consider variables such as the trajectory of the dollar, the pace of central bank gold purchases, and whether the Iran conflict intensifies further when allocating to gold.

Traders are now awaiting U.S. nonfarm payroll data. The market widely expects around 59,000 jobs to have been added in February, compared to January’s above-trend figure of 130,000. Additionally, retail sales for January are projected to decline by 0.3% month-over-month, following a flat reading previously. The U.S. will also implement a temporary 15% global tariff this week, replacing the earlier 10% rate imposed after the Supreme Court overturned most of the Trump administration's early tariffs. Scott Bessent indicated that as new trade investigations progress, the tariff could return to previous levels within five months. From an economic fundamentals perspective, the U.S. labor market continues to demonstrate resilience beyond expectations. Latest data shows initial jobless claims remained unchanged at 213,000 last week, while layoffs in February dropped by 55% month-over-month and plunged 72% year-over-year—consistent with overall labor market stability. Although productivity growth slowed in the fourth quarter, the broader trend remains robust enough to control the labor cost increases in 2025. The sustained strength in the labor market, coupled with risks that escalating Middle East tensions could transmit through energy prices to core inflation, reinforces widespread expectations that the Fed will not rush to restart its rate-cutting cycle. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin also noted that persistently high inflation and strong employment figures could alter the Fed's risk assessment framework, suggesting policymakers currently prefer patience and observation.

From a four-hour perspective, gold shows downward-facing Bollinger Bands with diverging moving averages, indicating a bearish trend. After being pressured near 5,400, prices once broke below 5,000, and would stay in a broad range-bound oscillation. If prices fail to hold above 5,000, a test of the 4,900 level is likely; if they can stabilize above 5,000, a move toward 5,500 and 5,600 becomes possible. A death cross emerges to signal weakening upward momentum, while both the MACD and signal lines fall back below the zero line. RSI stands at 44, reflecting predominant selling activity among investors, with successively lower highs—an indication of short-term downside signals. Based on the daily chart, prices touched the Bollinger Upper Band and faced resistance, forming a candlestick with a long upper shadow, followed by a large bearish candle breaking below the EMA12 and the Bollinger Middle Band. Overall, the pullback is not yet complete. A MACD death cross has appeared, and rising momentum is gradually fading, indicating a top divergence signal and forecasting a downtrend. RSI is at 53 to confirm strong market indecision. Thus, a short-then-long strategy is recommended.

Trading direction: Sell

Entry Price: 5150

Target Price: 4300

Stop Loss: 5700

Support: 4500/4300/4100

Resistance: 5400/5500/5600