Short-term Rebound Nears End, Market May Resume Downtrend

Commodity

Summary:

The latest U.S. ADP crude oil inventory data indicates ample supply, while Venezuela's resuming exports are expected to weigh on oil prices, potentially driving them lower.

SELL WTI

Close Time

CLOSED

61.000

Entry Price

55.800

62.500

59.195 +0.061 +0.10%

180.2

Pips

Profit

55.800

59.198

Exit Price

61.000

Entry Price

62.500

Fundamentals

Today, WTI hovered around $60.80, with intraday movements characterized by a "short-term rally being suppressed by supply news" pattern. Markets are balancing between increased supply from Venezuela's restored exports and ongoing geopolitical risks related to Iran and Russia. Inventory data temporarily curbed upward momentum, leading to sharp but limited volatility driven by news flow.

First, the most direct factor altering today's price trajectory is Venezuela's resumption of supply. Reports indicate that, following changes in U.S. actions regarding Venezuelan exports, more Venezuelan crude is flowing to the U.S., increasing North American crude availability and widening the WTI-Brent discount, which exerts short-term downward pressure on WTI.

Second, official and industry data show a recent uptick in U.S. commercial crude inventories, with the API reporting a weekly increase of over 5 million barrels. This is viewed in trading circles as evidence of ample near-term supply, thereby restraining sustained upward price momentum. From the supply side and a political view, OPEC+ didn't make significant production expansions in the past months, maintaining a general stance focused on price stability. However, reports from institutions and the International Energy Agency (IEA) revised global supply growth downward, while demand improvements remain limited, creating a tug-of-war between "news-driven supply" and "structural supply-demand dynamics."

Technical Analysis

Short-term Rebound Nears End, Market May Resume Downtrend_1

Based on the daily chart, WTI's recent candlestick patterns show a continuous uptrend after breaking through the previous downtrend channel. It briefly surpassed the $61.00 mark yesterday, but closed below it, indicating some resistance at this level.

Currently, WTI faces resistance in the $61.00–$62.00 range. If WTI fails to break above and sustain levels above $62.00 in the short term, the subsequent trend may resume its downtrend, with the first target potentially dropping to the $58.50 support level, or even falling to $55.00. Conversely, if WTI breaks above $62.00 and holds, its upside potential could expand further, with a possible test of the $64.00 resistance level.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 61.00

Target price: 55.80

Stop loss: 62.50

Valid Until: January 28, 2026, 23:00:00

Support: 58.50/57.50

Resistance: 61.21/62.00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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Manuel

Forex

Economic

Summary:

As long as the price maintains its position above the recently breached resistance, the bulls remain firmly in control of the market narrative.

BUY USDCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.38955

Entry Price

1.39700

1.38300

1.39138 +0.00201 +0.14%

19.9

Pips

Profit

1.38300

1.39154

Exit Price

1.38955

Entry Price

1.39700

In Canada, the employment data for December presented a mixed narrative for market participants. Net employment figures surpassed expectations by increasing by 8.2K, contrasting with the anticipated decline of 5K. However, this was overshadowed by a sharper-than-expected rise in the unemployment rate, which climbed to 6.8% from 6.5%, exceeding the market consensus of 6.6%. Meanwhile, the energy sector is seeing renewed volatility; WTI crude oil prices are trending upward as supply-side risks intensify due to escalating protests in Iran. As the fourth-largest producer in OPEC, exporting nearly 2 million barrels per day (bpd), any sustained disruption in Iranian output poses a material threat to global energy supplies.

Simultaneously, the United States Department of Justice has ramped up its pressure on the Federal Reserve, issuing grand jury subpoenas as part of a criminal investigation into Chair Jerome Powell. The probe specifically examines Powell’s Senate testimony regarding a $2.5 billion headquarters renovation project. Powell has remained firm in his defense, characterizing the investigation as politically motivated and asserting that the Federal Reserve will remain independent, prioritizing economic fundamentals over external political influence.

Despite these assertions, anxiety regarding the Fed’s long-term independence is growing. The market is closely monitoring President Donald Trump, who is expected to announce a successor to Powell later this month, as his term concludes in May 2026. The prevailing sentiment is that the administration will nominate a candidate more closely aligned with its specific economic agenda, introducing a layer of uncertainty into the future path of U.S. monetary policy. On the data front, December's Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat month-over-month at 0.3%, while annual inflation held steady at 2.7%. Core CPI ticked up slightly by 0.2%, missing the 0.3% forecast but remaining consistent with previous trends. In the housing sector, while New Home Sales dipped slightly to 737K, the Department of Commerce reported a robust 18.7% year-over-year increase, likely bolstered by cooling mortgage rates.

Supporting the outlook for growth, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem noted that the U.S. economy is positioned to grow at or above potential in 2026, aided by fiscal support and previous rate cuts. He argued that policy is currently near "neutral," allowing the Fed flexibility to manage a cooling labor market. Concurrently, the Bank of England continues to navigate a delicate easing cycle, where solid wage growth complicates efforts to return inflation to the 2% target. Technical Breakout Points Toward Further Upside Expansion_1

Technical Breakout Points Toward Further Upside Expansion_1

Technical Analysis

The USD/CAD pair remains entrenched in a definitive primary uptrend, making long positions the preferred tactical approach. This bullish cycle originated on December 26th at the 1.3641 level and extended to a peak of nearly 1.3920 by January 11th.

Although the rally has been aggressive, the pair recently confirmed its strength by breaking above the 1.3872 resistance level. Following a successful retest of this zone—now acting as support—the price has reacted to the upside, suggesting a continuation toward the next major resistance target at 1.3973.

From a moving average perspective, the 100 and 200-period MAs are situated at 1.3759 and 1.3830, respectively. Both indicators are trending well below the current price action, underscoring the intensity of the bullish momentum.

Should a minor retracement occur, the 200-period MA is expected to serve as a reliable dynamic support floor in the short term. However, traders should note that a decisive close below this moving average could signal a deeper structural correction. As long as the price maintains its position above the recently breached resistance, the bulls remain firmly in control of the market narrative.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 1.3894

Target price: 1.3970

Stop loss: 1.3830

Validity: Jan 23, 2026 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Forex

Economic

Summary:

This specific moving average had recently served as a reliable dynamic support floor; however, this firm break below it suggests a "support-to-resistance" flip.

SELL GBPUSD

EXP

PENDING

1.34650

Entry Price

1.32900

1.35640

1.33765 -0.00042 -0.03%

Pips

PENDING

1.32900

Exit Price

1.34650

Entry Price

1.35640

The United States Department of Justice has intensified its scrutiny of the Federal Reserve, issuing grand jury subpoenas as part of a criminal investigation involving Chair Jerome Powell. The probe centers on Powell’s testimony before the Senate regarding a $2.5 billion renovation project for the central bank’s headquarters. In response, Powell has characterized the initiative as politically motivated, firmly asserting that the Federal Reserve will remain steadfast in defining monetary policy based on economic fundamentals rather than bowing to external political pressures.

Despite this defense, concerns regarding the long-term independence of the Fed are mounting. Market participants are closely watching for President Donald Trump to announce a potential successor to Powell later this month, as his term is set to conclude in May 2026. The prevailing market assumption is that the administration will nominate a candidate more closely aligned with its specific political and economic vision, a prospect that has introduced significant uncertainty into the future trajectory of U.S. monetary policy.

On the data front, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December remained stagnant month-over-month, aligning with expectations at 0.3%. On an annual basis, prices rose by 2.7%, matching previous readings. Core CPI—which excludes volatile food and energy costs—ticked up by 0.2%, slightly missing the 0.3% forecast but remaining consistent with the prior month's data. Meanwhile, the labor market showed subtle signs of resilience as the four-week average for ADP Employment Change improved to 11.75K. In the housing sector, New Home Sales for October dipped slightly to 737K, though the Department of Commerce noted a robust 18.7% year-over-year increase, likely supported by cooling mortgage rates and declining property prices.

Complementing this data, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem stated that the U.S. economy is poised to grow at or above its potential in 2026, driven by fiscal support and the lagging effects of prior rate cuts. While noting that inflation remains closer to 3% than the 2% target, Musalem argued that current policy is positioned near "neutral," providing the Fed with the flexibility to respond to an orderly cooling of the labor market. Concurrently, the Bank of England appears to be navigating a gradual easing cycle; while labor demand remains muted, solid wage growth continues to complicate the bank's efforts to bring inflation back to its 2% target.

In the United Kingdom, the government has announced an investment of $268 million for a potential deployment of British troops in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that any Western force would be considered a legitimate target.

UK labor market conditions remained weak in 2025, as companies slowed hiring to offset the impact of higher employer contributions to social security schemes. In addition, the UK unemployment rate rose to 5.1% in October, marking its highest level since March 2021. Bulls Lose Momentum As Deeper Corrective Structure Begins To Materialize_1

Bulls Lose Momentum As Deeper Corrective Structure Begins To Materialize_1

Technical Analysis

The GBP/USD pair appears to have entered a more profound corrective phase after failing to establish a new "higher high." The price encountered significant selling pressure at the 1.3493 resistance level, resulting in a rapid retreat.

Crucially, the pair has decisively closed below the 100-period Moving Average, currently situated at 1.3425. This specific moving average had recently served as a reliable dynamic support floor; however, this firm break below it suggests a "support-to-resistance" flip. This shift in market structure strongly indicates that bearish momentum is now the dominant force in the short term.

From an oscillator perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) only reached a peak of 57 before reversing, remaining well clear of overbought territory. This lack of exhaustive buying power suggests that while a minor relief rally back toward the moving average is possible, the path of least resistance remains to the downside.

Consequently, sell-side positions near current resistance levels are technically favored. The primary downside objectives are aligned with the 0.50 Fibonacci retracement of the entire impulse leg, which also converges with a significant local support zone. This confluence of technical indicators greatly increases the probability that this area will serve as the next major target for the ongoing correction.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 1.3465

Target price: 1.3290

Stop loss: 1.3564

Validity: Jan 23, 2026 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

Gold trades near record highs as softer US core inflation, Fed easing expectations, and rising political and geopolitical risks keep safe-haven demand firmly intact.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

4609.92

Entry Price

4740.00

4570.00

4596.43 -19.52 -0.42%

399.2

Pips

Loss

4570.00

4569.49

Exit Price

4609.92

Entry Price

4740.00

Gold prices edged higher on Tuesday, extending their advance as investors digested the latest US inflation data and weighed a growing list of political and geopolitical risks that continue to underpin demand for safe-haven assets. Spot gold (XAU/USD) was trading around $4,615 at the time of writing, marking a gain of nearly 0.6% on the day and hovering just below Monday’s record peak near $4,630. The precious metal’s resilience highlights a market increasingly convinced that the Federal Reserve is moving closer to further monetary easing, even as uncertainty clouds the broader macroeconomic and political landscape.

Fresh data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that headline Consumer Price Index inflation was broadly in line with market expectations, offering little in the way of upside surprises. More importantly for policymakers and markets alike, core CPI inflation came in softer than forecast. The cooling in underlying price pressures has reinforced the view that the Federal Reserve has greater scope to loosen monetary policy in the months ahead, particularly if growth momentum continues to show signs of fatigue. For gold, which typically benefits from lower interest rates and a softer real yield environment, the data provided a timely catalyst for renewed buying interest.

Beyond the inflation figures, gold continues to draw support from persistent safe-haven demand. Investors remain wary amid a complex mix of economic uncertainty and political stress, particularly in the United States. Markets have been unsettled by the emergence of a criminal investigation involving Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, a development that has reignited concerns about the central bank’s independence. While the long-term implications remain unclear, any perception of political pressure on the Fed risks undermining confidence in US institutions, a scenario that historically tends to favor hard assets such as gold.

Risk sentiment has also been dented by escalating geopolitical tensions. US President Donald Trump’s latest warning of a potential 25% tariff on countries that continue to do business with Iran has added to global trade and diplomatic anxieties, especially as nationwide anti-government protests intensify within Iran itself. These developments follow earlier US military action in Venezuela targeting the government of President Nicolás Maduro, as well as renewed rhetoric from Washington regarding strategic interests in Greenland. Taken together, these flashpoints have heightened concerns over global stability, encouraging investors to maintain defensive positioning.

Technical Analysis

From a market perspective, gold’s ability to hold near record territory underscores the strength of the prevailing bullish trend. Price action in recent sessions has been choppy, reflecting short-term profit-taking and headline-driven volatility. However, the broader technical structure remains constructive. Gold continues to trade within a rising channel on the short-term timeframe, suggesting that the dominant upward trend remains intact despite intermittent pullbacks.

Momentum indicators further support this view. Relative strength measures have recently dipped to oversold levels when compared with price action, a divergence that often signals a potential resumption of gains. This technical backdrop suggests that the recent consolidation may be more of a pause than a reversal, as the market attempts to rebuild bullish momentum for another leg higher.

As long as gold prices remain supported above the 4,585 to 4,570 region and continue to respect the existing channel structure, the technical outlook points toward a renewed push higher. In this scenario, the market could gradually extend toward the mid-4,600s, with scope to challenge the 4,700 area and potentially move toward the 4,740 zone if bullish momentum accelerates. Such levels would represent fresh all-time highs, reinforcing gold’s status as one of the standout performers in an environment defined by easing monetary expectations and elevated political risk.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY GOLD

ENTRY PRICE: 4610

STOP LOSS: 4570

TAKE PROFIT: 4740

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Forex

Economic

Summary:

The EURCAD cross is trading near 1.618–1.6200, with price failing to convincingly break above a cluster resistance zone around the psychological 1.6200 level...

SELL EURCAD

EXP

EXPIRED

1.62000

Entry Price

1.61400

1.62400

1.61373 +0.00096 +0.06%

Pips

EXPIRED

1.61400

1.61667

Exit Price

1.62000

Entry Price

1.62400

Title: Sell EURCAD: M15 Rejection Near Upper Range at ~1.6200, Risk-On Tilt Supporting Loonie Strength

Overview

EURCAD today is hovering in a narrow range, with current rates around 1.6170–1.6200 and the daily range roughly between 1.6168 and 1.6199.

The pair has traded sideways as conflicting forces emerge: on one side, the Canadian dollar is finding support from rising crude oil prices and expectations of resilient economic data, which tends to strengthen commodity-linked currencies like CAD; on the other, the eurozone currency has lacked fresh catalysts to extend gains, anchored by consistent ECB messaging that policy remains steady without imminent tightening. Macro headlines show further risk-on tilt in broader markets, which historically weighs on EURCAD rallies because higher risk appetite tends to weaken the euro relative to the loonie. The technical backdrop reflects a failed breakout attempt above the 1.6200 barrier, where repeated tests without decisive follow-through signal short-term exhaustion and invite tactical short entries.

Market Sentiment

Short-term sentiment in EURCAD is balanced but biased toward distribution rather than aggressive accumulation as price edges up into resistance without buying conviction. Technical analysis summaries show mixed signals but a Sell bias on the M15 timeframe from short-term indicators and moving averages, suggesting sellers gain the upper hand in the near term.

If broader risk sentiment persists or CAD data surprises on the upside (e.g., stronger employment or resilient activity metrics), these fundamentals will further support downside pressure on the euro cross. Traders should interpret sentiment as nuanced: not overtly bearish at higher timeframes, but vulnerable intraday when price fails to sustain highs near resistance, creating an opportunity for mean reversion toward lower price levels.

Technical Analysis

EURCAD’s upside into the 1.6200 area is losing traction_1

On the M15 chart, price repeatedly approaches the upper Bollinger Band near 1.6200–1.6210 but lacks sharp breakout momentum; instead, wicks and rejections suggest sellers are defending this zone. A close back inside the upper band after testing it often preludes a pullback toward the mid-band, consistent with mean-reversion logic. The Ichimoku (IKH 9,26,52) cloud confirms that price is extended above short-term equilibrium levels without new bullish impulse structure, indicating thermal exhaustion rather than fresh trend extension.

The Stoch (5,3,3) oscillator shows overbought conditions with a potential bearish crossover if price continues rejecting near resistance; this cross is a classic early intraday sign that upside momentum is fading. Combined, these indicators suggest that EURCAD’s upside into the 1.6200 area is losing traction and that the path of least resistance on M15 is temporarily downward unless a strong catalyst re-energizes buyers.

Trade Recommendation

Entry: 1.6200

Take Profit: 1.6140–1.6120

Stop Loss: 1.6240–1.6250

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Cryptocurrency

Economic

Summary:

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is trading around $92,268 on the M15 timeframe with a range roughly between $90,700 and $92,750 as volatility compresses after a brief uptick toward resistance...

SELL BTC-USDT

Close Time

CLOSED

93100.0

Entry Price

90500.0

94000.0

95171.9 -399.1 -0.42%

900.0

Pips

Loss

90500.0

94000.0

Exit Price

93100.0

Entry Price

94000.0

Overview

BTC remains in a tight intraday range between the psychological support around $90,000 and overhead resistance near $93,000, with price action showing muted volatility compared to the previous weeks, indicating participant hesitation between buyers and sellers. Recent CPI data prints roughly in line with forecast saw BTC briefly spike toward the session highs before weakness re-emerged, suggesting bulls are struggling to convert macro news into sustained breakout momentum.

The broader crypto market has seen mixed sentiment with regulation drafts (Digital Asset Market Clarity Act) offering long-term narrative support while geopolitical tariff shocks and macro uncertainty are tempering aggressive positioning.

On macro fronts, U.S. inflation prints and Fed policy tensions add to the backdrop, increasing the probability of USD strength in the short run and pressuring risk assets including Bitcoin.

Market Sentiment

Short-term sentiment has moved toward short distribution / range fatigue rather than fresh accumulation. Traders are defending local support near $90K and booking profits above, while upside attempts above $93K have repeatedly stalled, reflecting a lack of conviction to push beyond the near-term supply zone. Despite some headlines about institutional accumulation (e.g., large BTC buys by Strategy), these moves are not yet translating into breakout follow-through on the M15 structure, underscoring defensive positioning by short-term traders. Macro catalysts such as inflation data, tariff news, and broader equities volatility are being priced in, boosting cautious sentiment and reducing directional conviction.

Technical Analysis

On M15, BTC is grinding against the upper end of the recent range, with Bollinger Bands relatively narrow but with shallow rejection around the upper band, suggesting buyers are losing momentum rather than expanding volatility upward. Price is close to the upper band without convincing breakout candles, and a close back inside the band after an extended stay above often triggers mean reversion entries.

The Ichimoku (IKH 9,26,52) structure is showing price extended above the short-term cloud with limited acceleration, indicating a lack of fresh buying impetus. The Stoch (5,3,3) indicator is rolling over from near-overbought levels, a classic early signal of fading bullish momentum on this timeframe. Together these technical signals imply higher odds of a pullback down toward the middle of the range rather than continuation upward without new catalyst confirmation.

Trade Recommendation

Entry: 92,900–93,100

Take Profit: 90,500–89,800

Stop Loss: Above 94,000–94,300,

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Economic

Commodity

Summary:

he XAUUSD gold market has recently hit historic highs above $4,600/oz before stabilizing slightly lower as traders book profits amid heightened geopolitical tensions and macro uncertainty related to a criminal investigation into the US Federal Reserve Chair and tariff threats...

SELL XAUUSD

EXP

EXPIRED

4630.00

Entry Price

4575.00

4665.00

4596.43 -19.52 -0.42%

Pips

EXPIRED

4575.00

4613.31

Exit Price

4630.00

Entry Price

4665.00

Overview

Today gold is trading near $4,585–4,600/oz, retreating from a fresh record high of roughly $4,629.94/oz seen in the previous session as investors partially booked profits after intense buying on safe-haven flows.

The broader macro backdrop remains dominated by geopolitical stress threats of tariffs on countries trading with Iran and other tensions which have historically underpinned gold’s surge.

However, unlike purely bullish environments, this rally has become headline-driven rather than structurally deeper, and macro data pending today (such as US CPI releases) adds event risk that could strengthen the USD and pressure gold.

While analysts continue to project higher medium-term targets, near-term price structure and profit-taking activity argue for short-term retracement pressure.

Market Sentiment

Investor psychology in gold is at an inflection point. Although broad sentiment remains bullish at the upper time frames because of persistent macro uncertainty and safe-haven buying, M15/short-term sentiment has shifted from aggressive accumulation to distribution. The drop from the all-time highs appears linked to traders locking gains, not full reversal of the trend, which is typical when a rally becomes stretched and macro catalysts temporarily lose novelty.

Despite bullish narratives from strategy desks forecasting continued upside, the short-term fear of data-driven volatility and a possible rebound in the US dollar due to solid CPI prints increases the probability of correction.

This disconnect bullish long bias but short-term exhaustion creates a precise window to SELL into strength on the M15 timeframe.

Technical Analysis

Gold leaps to record high as dollar drops on Fed chair probe news_1

On the M15 chart, Bollinger Bands show significant expansion as price pushed toward the upper extreme above 4630, which often precedes a mean-reversion pullback when buyers relent and price closes back inside the upper band. The Ichimoku (IKH) structure reveals that gold is far extended above both the Kijun and Senkou Span, indicating that the recent rally is technically overstretched and lacking fresh momentum to sustain new highs without corrective retracement.

The Stoch (5,3,3) is in the overbought region with a bearish crossover starting to form, which historically on M15 signals a high-probability pullback phase in intraday gold action. Together, these indicators suggest short-term downside movement as momentum weakens, price fails to sustain higher highs after reaching the psychological and technical zone around 4630.