Pound Surges Toward 1.3390 as Markets Brace for BoE Rate Cut and Fed Status Quo

Economic

Summary:

The British Pound surged near 1.3390 ahead of major central bank decisions, supported by a weakening U.S. Dollar and bullish technical signals.

BUY GBPUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.33645

Entry Price

1.34430

1.33100

1.33938 +0.00231 +0.17%

54.5

Pips

Loss

1.33100

1.33096

Exit Price

1.33645

Entry Price

1.34430

The British Pound is showing remarkable resilience ahead of a pivotal week for global monetary policy, strengthening sharply against the U.S. Dollar during North American trading hours on Tuesday. The GBP/USD currency pair climbed to nearly 1.3390 as the Greenback came under renewed pressure and traders positioned themselves ahead of key interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England.

Investor focus is squarely on Thursday’s Bank of England meeting, where policymakers are widely expected to initiate a rate-cutting cycle for the first time in more than three years. While such a move might ordinarily weigh on the Pound, expectations that the BoE will also outline a broader shift toward a more accommodative stance have already been priced in to some extent. In contrast, the Federal Reserve is almost universally expected to hold rates steady on Wednesday, reinforcing the narrative of monetary policy divergence between the UK and the United States.

The broader foreign exchange landscape has lent support to the Pound as well. The U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the strength of the Dollar against a basket of six major peers, slipped below the 99.50 level—its lowest point in weeks. A combination of softening economic data, stable inflation expectations, and fading bets on further tightening from the Fed has eroded the Greenback’s earlier dominance. According to CME FedWatch data, markets are pricing in a near-certainty that the Fed will keep its benchmark rate unchanged in the range of 4.25% to 4.50%. Should this hold true, it would mark the third consecutive meeting where the U.S. central bank has opted for a pause.

Fed officials have increasingly adopted a "wait and see" approach, emphasizing the need for patience amid conflicting macroeconomic signals. Under the current economic policy environment shaped by President Donald Trump’s administration, the Fed has maintained a delicate balance—acknowledging progress on inflation without prematurely declaring victory. For now, the central bank appears content with its restrictive stance, opting to monitor incoming data before making any significant moves.

Across the Atlantic, the picture looks markedly different. The UK economy is grappling with a distinct slowdown, prompting the BoE to consider shifting from a tightening bias to one of easing. Inflationary pressures have continued to moderate, unemployment has inched higher, and consumer demand is showing signs of fatigue. Analysts broadly expect the BoE to deliver a quarter-point cut this week, lowering the benchmark rate from 5.25% to 5.00%, with forward guidance that could open the door to additional cuts before year-end.

Markets are also anticipating a downgrade in the Bank’s economic growth forecasts, which would reflect the reality of stagnant productivity and waning business investment. Yet paradoxically, this gloomier outlook is not undermining the Pound’s momentum in the near term. Much of the recent strength in Sterling appears to be less about domestic fundamentals and more about broader currency market flows, particularly the softness in the Dollar and the positioning of investors ahead of what could be a turning point in global policy.

Technical Analysis

Adding to the bullish tone in the Pound, technical analysis is now flashing clear signals of a potential upside breakout. On the intraday charts, the GBP/USD pair has completed a textbook triple-bottom reversal formation—often viewed by traders as a sign of trend exhaustion and an impending bullish turn. This pattern unfolded over the past few sessions, with the price testing and rejecting the 1.32640 level three times. Each time, buyers stepped in with conviction, absorbing selling pressure and building a foundation for upward momentum.

The neckline of this formation, located in the 1.33850 to 1.33950 region, served as a key resistance zone. With that barrier now breached in Tuesday’s session, the technical breakout is considered confirmed. Based on the height of the pattern, analysts project a near-term upside target around 1.3443—a level that corresponds to previous consolidation zones and Fibonacci projections.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY GBPUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.3365

STOP LOSS: 1.3310

TAKE PROFIT: 1.3443

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Commodity

Summary:

On May 6, 2025, Brent crude prices continued to face strong downward pressure due to concerns about global oversupply after OPEC+'s decision to increase production by 411,000 barrels/day from June, following the production increase last month....

SELL BRENT

Close Time

CLOSED

62.000

Entry Price

59.000

63.000

60.702 -0.142 -0.23%

100.0

Pips

Loss

59.000

63.012

Exit Price

62.000

Entry Price

63.000

Overview

On May 6, 2025, Brent crude was trading around $61.5 – $62.3/barrel, up slightly by about 3% from the previous session after a series of sharp declines, but still at its lowest level in the past 4 years. OPEC+ has decided to increase production by 411,000 barrels/day from June, following the increase in May, to accelerate the withdrawal of previous production cuts.

Saudi Arabia has warned that it will increase production further if members fail to comply with their quotas, creating a large oversupply pressure on the market. In addition, US-China trade tensions and the risk of a global economic slowdown continue to suppress oil demand, putting deep downward pressure on Brent prices throughout April and early May.

Market psychology

Investor sentiment is currently quite bearish as Brent prices have fallen more than 25% since the beginning of 2025. Despite a technical rebound due to buying at the bottom when prices fell below $60, concerns about oversupply and weak demand prospects still dominate. Investment funds and major oil producers are cautious, focusing closely on OPEC+ production decisions and geopolitical developments in the Middle East. Market sentiment reflects a delicate balance between technical selling pressure and short-term support factors such as regional tensions.

Technical analysis

Brent falls below $62 amid oversupply pressure and OPEC+'s decision to increase output_1

Brent crude is in a strong downtrend, with prices hovering around the technical support zone of $60-62. Bollinger Bands are widening, indicating strong volatility, RSI on D1 is still in the low-mid zone, with no clear signs of oversold, indicating that there is still room for decline. The price has recovered slightly from the bottom of $58.7 but has not yet broken through the important resistance level of $62.11 - $62.63 to confirm a sustainable reversal. EMA50 and EMA200 on D1 are still above the price, reinforcing the medium-term downtrend. Pivot points show the next support zone around $58 if the price breaks the current zone.

Trading Recommendations

Entry: Sell at the price range of 62.00 – 62.30 USD when the retest price fails to overcome the technical resistance level.

Take Profit: 59.00 – 58.00 USD, next technical support zones.

Stop Loss: 63.00 USD, above EMA50 resistance zone and technical recovery peak price zone.

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Economic

Forex

Summary:

While market fundamentals suggest improvement and technical indicators signal a buy, this situation likely represents a calm before the storm.

SELL US30

Close Time

CLOSED

40804.92

Entry Price

37375.00

42900.00

48770.92 +199.02 +0.41%

20950.8

Pips

Loss

37375.00

42903.44

Exit Price

40804.92

Entry Price

42900.00

Fundamentals

On Monday, U.S. stock market experienced significant intraday volatility, ultimately closing with broad-based declines. Major indices recovered from early session lows but faced renewed pressure in after-hours trading.

Key indices closed off their intraday lows but remained in negative territory. The Nasdaq Composite fell 133 points, or 0.7%, to 17,844; the S&P 500 declined 36 points, or 0.6%, to 5,650; and the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 98 points, or 0.2%, to 41,218.

The early pullback in U.S. markets was attributed to profit-taking by some investors, following recent market strength that had pushed major indices to one-month highs.

In Q1 2025, the U.S. economy contracted by 0.3%, marking the first downturn since 2022. The Federal Reserve is anticipated to hold the current interest rate range of 4.25%–4.50% during this week's meeting. Bond yields are under upward pressure due to trade uncertainties and Treasury auctions. The VIX index stands at 24.68, indicating heightened risk aversion.

MARKET WATCH: there are potential risks for the recent rally in U.S. stocks, despite the White House's apparent retreat from the "Liberation Day" tariff plan announced on April 2. While current economic indicators remain robust and the stock market has shown a significant recovery, the actual impact of the tariffs is yet to be realized. The primary risk to growth is a slowdown. A "sell the news" scenario may materialize upon the official release of the trade agreement.

Technical Analysis

The focus remains on the Dow Jones Industrial Average's (DJIA) recent performance and potential trading opportunities. Initially, the market experienced a technical rebound in late April following the "Liberation Day" tariff shock in early April 2025, which resulted in a 1,679-point decline. The week ending May 2 saw a roughly 3% increase. As of the May 5th close, the DJIA stood at 41,218, reflecting a year-to-date decrease of 3.1%.

Technically, short-term SMAs (5- and 10-day) present resistance around 41,320, while the 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day SMAs exhibit a bullish alignment.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 56.45, and the MACD (12, 26) is at 202.4, both signaling continued buying pressure.

Pivot points are at 41,404, with resistance levels at 41,431 and 41,472, and support levels at 41,363, 41,336, and 41,295.

Regarding valuation, the US30's P/E ratio is approximately 26.00, slightly exceeding the average of the last five years.

Based on fundamental and technical analysis, the Dow Jones is currently in a consolidation phase at the bottom. If the current support level holds and marginal improvements in macroeconomic policies occur, there is potential for a rebound. However, risks and opportunities coexist in the short term.

It is recommended to establish short positions in batches at key resistance levels and reduce positions when prices are near the pivot point, as the path of least resistance is downward. Meanwhile, it is recommended to closely monitor the Federal Reserve's statements and the next CPI data release, and strictly adhere to stop-loss orders.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 41330, 41780

Target Price: 37375

Stop Loss: 42900

Valid Until: May 21, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 40839, 40615, 39728

Resistance: 41449, 41599, 42582

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

The New Zealand dollar continues to appreciate against the US dollar, with NZD/USD climbing for a second consecutive session.

BUY NZDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.59847

Entry Price

0.60750

0.59200

0.57977 -0.00063 -0.11%

64.7

Pips

Loss

0.59200

0.59198

Exit Price

0.59847

Entry Price

0.60750

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) has extended its gains against the US dollar (USD), advancing for a second consecutive session. The NZD/USD pair reached around the 0.5970 mark during Monday’s Asian session, propelled by a combination of a weakening US dollar and a cautiously optimistic outlook on US-China trade relations.

Market sentiment this week is largely shaped by geopolitical concerns, particularly between the US and China, two of the world’s largest economies. Over the weekend, US President Donald Trump reignited investor focus with remarks on the ongoing trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing. Trump confirmed that talks are still active, but clarified that no direct discussions are planned between him and Chinese President Xi Jinping for this week. His comments came amid mounting speculation about the economic consequences of the trade war, especially the impact of tariffs.

Trump stated that while tariffs have caused strain, he was open to lowering them, acknowledging that businesses could not continue to function under such high tariffs. “At some point, I’m going to lower them,” Trump noted on Sunday, indicating that the pressure on Chinese imports could ease in the future. This shift in rhetoric has helped ease some of the tension in the markets, with the US dollar losing ground and risk sentiment gaining traction.

On the other hand, China’s Ministry of Commerce confirmed on Friday that it was reviewing a US proposal to restart trade discussions. This announcement furthered hopes of a potential resolution, which helped improve investor sentiment, driving the New Zealand dollar higher against its US counterpart.

Despite strong US economic data, the US dollar has been underperforming. The latest Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, released on Friday, showed that the US economy added 177,000 jobs in April, exceeding expectations of 130,000. However, the figure was slightly lower than the revised 185,000 jobs added in March. The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, and wages grew by 3.8% year-over-year, matching the previous month’s growth rate.

Such data would typically support a stronger US dollar, especially with expectations of continued monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve. However, market participants seem to be more focused on the external geopolitical risks and a possible shift in Fed policy. With concerns about global growth and the ongoing uncertainty regarding US-China trade talks, the greenback’s strength has been curbed, allowing other currencies like the New Zealand dollar to gain traction.

In New Zealand, attention has turned to upcoming labor market data, which is expected to show a slight rise in the unemployment rate. Such an outcome would reinforce the growing expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will continue to adopt a dovish stance. The central bank has already signaled a willingness to ease monetary policy further, and markets are fully pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut at the RBNZ’s policy meeting later this month.

The expectation is that New Zealand’s official cash rate (OCR) could fall to 2.75% by October. Should the unemployment rate rise as anticipated, it could further solidify expectations for additional monetary easing, putting downward pressure on the New Zealand dollar. However, if the labor market proves stronger than expected, it could provide a more bullish backdrop for the Kiwi.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, the NZD/USD pair is showing signs of bullish momentum. The chart has formed a falling wedge pattern, typically indicative of a trend reversal from bearish to bullish. The recent break above the resistance line of the wedge has confirmed the pattern, suggesting that the Kiwi may continue to climb higher. Technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) are also supporting the upward move, both showing positive momentum.

The volume indicators suggest that the breakout has strong backing, confirming that the move is not a mere price fluctuation. We will be watching for a retest of the breakout zone, which sits near 0.5950, to confirm that the support is solid before considering long positions. Should NZD/USD manage to break above the 0.6000 level, this would likely signal a continuation of the bullish momentum, with further upside potential.The measured move from the current technical formation targets 0.6075.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY NZDUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 0.5985

STOP LOSS: 0.5920

TAKE PROFIT: 0.6075

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Alan

Economic

Forex

Summary:

Recently, the European Central Bank (ECB) has repeatedly signaled a dovish stance, prompting markets to bet on further interest rate cuts in the future.

SELL EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.13095

Entry Price

1.08900

1.14800

1.17564 +0.00170 +0.14%

40.3

Pips

Profit

1.08900

1.12692

Exit Price

1.13095

Entry Price

1.14800

Fundamentals

The euro has remained weak due to growing expectations of ECB monetary easing. Although the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index rebounded to -8.1 in May, it remains in negative territory, reflecting cautious sentiment toward economic recovery.

ECB officials have amplified dovish rhetoric. Rehn, governor of the Bank of Finland, explicitly highlighted the exchange rate as a policy consideration, hinting that larger rate cuts could follow if June's inflation projections fall below the 2% target. This has intensified downward pressure on the euro.

Meanwhile, diverging economic fundamentals between the Eurozone and the U.S. exacerbate the imbalance. Internal challenges plague the Eurozone. German manufacturing shows marginal improvement, but overall factory new orders have contracted for 14 consecutive months. At the same time, Spain's recent mass blackout exposed aging grid infrastructure (half of the facilities are over 40 years old), with a $2.3 trillion energy transition funding gap unlikely to be resolved soon.

In contrast, the U.S. economy remains resilient, supported by service sector expansion. While the demand for durable goods has softened, a stable labor market (April nonfarm payrolls rose by 177k) cushions consumer spending. This reduces urgency for Fed rate cuts, propelling the USDX above 100 (year-to-date high) and 10-year Treasury yields above 4.35%, widening the real interest rate differential.

Technical Analysis

Head-and-Shoulders Top Pattern Emerges on Daily Chart, Signaling Potential Downtrend_1

The daily chart shows two consecutive sessions with long upper shadows, signaling weak bullish momentum and bearish sentiment. A potential head-and-shoulders top pattern is forming. A bearish close today would complete the right shoulder, significantly increasing the likelihood of a downside breakout.

Selling at highs is recommended.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 1.1320

Target price: 1.0890

Stop loss: 1.1480

Valid Until: May 20, 2025, 23:00:00

Support: 1.1270/1.1090

Resistance: 1.1473/1.1572

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

Gold continues to gain ground as geopolitical instability and uncertainty around U.S. trade policy boost demand for safe-haven assets.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3369.91

Entry Price

3500.00

3320.00

4341.78 +42.39 +0.99%

89.4

Pips

Profit

3320.00

3378.85

Exit Price

3369.91

Entry Price

3500.00

Gold prices (XAU/USD) remain firm near a two-week high, supported by a convergence of macroeconomic and geopolitical crosswinds that are fuelling safe-haven inflows into the precious metal. As of early European trading hours on Tuesday, spot gold is trading just beneath a recent high, reflecting market trepidation surrounding erratic shifts in U.S. trade policy and the broader backdrop of global unrest.

This week’s rally in gold is primarily underpinned by a fresh wave of geopolitical anxiety. Russia has accused Ukraine of launching repeated drone attacks on Moscow, compelling authorities to temporarily shut down the capital’s major airports. At the same time, tensions in the Middle East have intensified following Israeli airstrikes on Yemen’s strategic Hodeidah port. These strikes, reportedly coordinated with the United States, came in response to a Houthi missile attack that struck Tel Aviv’s Ben Gurion International Airport on Sunday. Such incidents have once again cast a long shadow over the global geopolitical landscape, propelling demand for traditional safe-haven assets like gold.

Concurrently, markets remain uneasy over the unpredictable nature of U.S. trade policy. Over the weekend, U.S. President Donald Trump suggested imminent trade deals with unnamed countries, adding to the recent volatility in investor sentiment. While Trump hinted at reducing tariffs on Chinese imports, he also announced a sweeping 100% tariff on foreign-produced films, reinforcing concerns about the arbitrary nature of his policy decisions.

These conflicting signals are keeping risk appetite in check, even as optimism surrounding a potential U.S.-China trade thaw continues to linger. Notably, China’s Ministry of Commerce acknowledged ongoing evaluations for renewed trade talks with the U.S., offering a glimmer of hope for the de-escalation of a long-running tariff conflict. But in the absence of concrete outcomes, investors appear hesitant to fully commit to risk-on assets.

Meanwhile, on the economic front, recent U.S. data has painted a more robust picture of underlying activity. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported Monday that the U.S. services sector accelerated in April, with the Services PMI rising to 51.6, beating both the previous reading of 50.8 and the consensus estimate of 50.6. This follows last week’s strong nonfarm payrolls report, which further alleviated recession concerns and gave the U.S. dollar modest support after a two-day losing streak.

Still, the greenback’s recovery has been relatively muted, failing to meaningfully dent gold’s upward momentum. The broader market seems to be positioning cautiously ahead of the highly anticipated Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which kicks off today and concludes on Wednesday. While the Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady, traders are eager for any guidance on the timing of future cuts, especially as inflationary pressures remain sticky and economic signals remain mixed.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, gold (XAU/USD) continues to exhibit a bullish bias in the medium term, with prices currently consolidating near $3,375, just below a key resistance zone formed around $3,400–$3,408. The metal has held a firm upward trajectory since rebounding off local lows in the $3,300–$3,310 range, where strong buying activity has repeatedly emerged over recent sessions.

At this stage, the market is in what can be described as a bullish accumulation phase, with price action coiling under resistance, typically a sign that buyers are preparing for another upside breakout. As long as gold sustains above $3,360, the probability of an extension toward $3,420—and potentially the $3,500 ATH region—remains elevated.

Notably, the hourly moving average, which was previously acting as a dynamic support throughout the rally, was tested from below during Monday's price action. Bulls successfully reclaimed this level, reinforcing near-term strength. A clean break and close above $3,408, the recent intraday high, would likely trigger a fresh wave of buying and squeeze out lingering shorts, paving the way toward a new leg higher.

Support levels remain well-defined. Immediate intraday support lies around $3,360, followed by a deeper support zone at $3,340–$3,345, which coincides with a key Fibonacci retracement level from the latest upward swing. A sustained break below this area would be the first technical warning sign, potentially exposing the lower-$3,300 zone. However, barring a sharp fundamental shift—such as an ultra-hawkish surprise from the Fed—the path of least resistance remains to the upside.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY GOLD

ENTRY PRICE: 3370

STOP LOSS: 3320

TAKE PROFIT: 3500

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Commodity

Summary:

Strong industrial demand, particularly from renewable energy and automotive electrification, coupled with expectations of looser monetary policy in 2025, are creating a solid foundation for silver’s uptrend. Technical and fundamental indicators support a short-term buying strategy with a target of $34-$40 this year....

BUY XAGUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

32.367

Entry Price

33.500

32.000

64.009 +2.082 +3.36%

12.4

Pips

Profit

32.000

32.491

Exit Price

32.367

Entry Price

33.500

Overview

On May 6, 2025, the price of silver (XAG/USD) is currently trading around $32.54/ounce, up $0.276 from the opening price of $32.25. This price is close to the 50-day moving average ($32.73) and above the 200-day moving average ($31.20), indicating that the uptrend is strengthening.

Industrial demand for silver continues to grow, particularly in solar and electric vehicle applications, as global green policies drive the use of the metal. At the same time, forecasts of central bank rate cuts in 2025 reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like silver, facilitating capital flows into the precious metals market.

Market psychology

Investor sentiment is currently quite positive for silver as ETFs and institutional investors increase purchases, benefiting from the shift to safe-haven assets and industrial metals.

Higher-than-average trading volume data suggests improving demand. Optimistic forecasts from experts, such as the expectation that silver could rise 25% by 2025, also add to the buying sentiment. Investors should keep a close eye on monetary policy moves and macroeconomic developments to capitalize on price gains.

Technical analysis

Silver Rises Back Above $32: Solid Short-Term Buying Opportunity_1

On the short-term technical chart, silver is holding above the support zone around $32.20 – $32.30, while approaching the resistance zone near $33.00. Bollinger Bands (20,0,2) are slightly expanding, signaling increased volatility.

RSI is at around 60, indicating that the uptrend has room to grow. MACD remains above the signal line, confirming the positive uptrend. Ichimoku on the H4 chart shows that the price is above the Kumo cloud, reinforcing the medium-term uptrend. If the price breaks through the resistance zone of $33.00, the next target could be $34.50 – $40.00, in line with the growth forecast for 2025.

Trading Recommendations

Entry: Buy at the price range of 32.30 – 32.50 USD when the price holds above technical support and there is a confirmation signal from the momentum indicator.

Take Profit: 33.50 – 34.00 USD for short term target, can expand to 38 – 40 USD in medium term.

Stop Loss: 31.80 USD, below technical support zone to limit risk when price breaks support.

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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