The Bank of Canada announced on Wednesday that the policy benchmark interest rate remains unchanged at 2.25%, marking the second consecutive pause, in line with market expectations. Governor Tiff Macklem indicated that the prevailing economic environment faces "unusually high" uncertainty, making it challenging to determine the timing and direction of the next rate adjustment. In the latest quarterly Monetary Policy Report, the Bank maintained its outlook of modest economic growth over the coming years and projected that inflation would roughly fluctuate around the 2% target within the forecast period. The Bank noted that, compared to its October 2025 projections, the global and Canadian economic outlooks have seen little change but remain highly exposed to U.S. trade policies and geopolitical risks. U.S. economic growth has surpassed expectations, supported mainly by investments and consumption related to artificial intelligence, with tariffs temporarily boosting inflation; however, these effects are expected to diminish gradually later this year. The global economy's average growth rate during the forecast period is estimated at about 3%. Domestically, the Bank anticipates short-term economic growth may slow, with a risk of GDP stagnation in the fourth quarter. Export activity has been impacted by U.S. tariffs, but domestic demand has rebounded, and employment has experienced some growth. The unemployment rate remains elevated at approximately 6.8%, with ongoing weak hiring intentions among businesses. The Bank has raised its 2025 economic growth forecast to 1.7%, while maintaining its outlooks for 2026 and 2027 at 1.1% and 1.5%, respectively. Regarding inflation, the December 2024 CPI increased to 2.4%, primarily reflecting base effects from prior GST/HST tax holidays. Core inflation has declined from 3% in October of last year to approximately 2.5%. The Bank expects that trade-related cost pressures will be offset by excess supply within the economy, with overall inflation remaining near the 2% target. The Bank emphasizes that the current interest rate level is appropriate but will closely monitor risk developments in this highly uncertain environment and adjust its policy stance if necessary.

The Federal Reserve concluded its meeting on Wednesday by maintaining the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%. The policy statement reflected that economic activity in the United States continues to expand steadily, with inflation remaining elevated. The labor market has shown signs of stabilization after previous softening. No explicit guidance was provided regarding the timing or magnitude of future rate cuts, emphasizing that subsequent policy adjustments will depend on incoming data and economic outlook. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that, over the past three meetings, the Federal Reserve has cumulatively cut rates by 75 basis points, and that the current stance remains appropriate to support maximum employment and bring inflation back to the 2% target. He noted that the U.S. economy is projected to grow steadily through 2025 and enter 2026 on a relatively solid footing. Recent labor market stabilization, characterized by slowed employment growth, is largely attributed to diminished labor supply growth, including reduced immigration and declining labor force participation. Meanwhile, the housing sector remains subdued. Regarding inflation, Powell acknowledged that inflation remains slightly above target, with the December core PCE inflation rate projected to be around 3%. He attributed the current inflationary pressures primarily to comprehensive tariff policies rather than demand overheating, suggesting that tariffs' impact on prices may be transitory and expected to peak this year before gradually declining. Powell also reaffirmed the importance of the Federal Reserve’s independence, warning that any erosion of this independence could severely undermine the central bank’s credibility and public trust. Outside macroeconomic policy discussions, a recent IMF study highlighted structural constraints on Canada's economic potential, noting that internal market segmentation significantly hampers growth. The IMF estimates that trade barriers between Canadian provinces function as internal tariffs of approximately 9%, and eliminating these barriers could increase the country’s GDP by around 7%, equivalent to an annual output boost of approximately 210 billion CAD.

In the 1W timeframe, the price has broken below the EMA200 and the lower Bollinger Band, with the MACD's MACD line and signal line forming a death cross near the zero-axis, indicating a continuation of the bearish trend. If the price remains below the EMA200, it is highly likely to decline toward key support levels around 1.35 and 1.342, near previous lows. The RSI value at 35 indicates an oversold condition, suggesting the market is in a downtrend but prone to potential rebounds, with peak levels gradually declining. In the 1Q timeframe, Bollinger Bands are narrowing, and moving averages are flattening, signifying weakened upward momentum. After breaking below the EMA12, there are no signs of a reversal, implying the price may decline toward the middle Bollinger Band at approximately 1.34. The RSI at 51 reflects a neutral market sentiment, with traders adopting a wait-and-see approach. Therefore, it is recommended to go long before going short.

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 1.35

Target Price: 1.38

Stop Loss: 1.33

Support: 1.35, 1.325, 1.28

Resistance: 1.38, 1.4, 1.42

The cryptocurrency market is once again under pressure as the macroeconomic environment rapidly deteriorates amid escalating trade and geopolitical concerns. These developments have heightened worries about economic growth, policy uncertainty, and capital flows. Such trends reflect investors' growing anxiety over liquidity and geopolitical risks, which will impact the valuation of crypto assets and may trigger volatility across global financial markets.

From a market structure perspective, the current wave of selling suggests that Bitcoin's pullback since last November may have concluded. Price action has clearly turned downward, and if market risk sentiment continues to deteriorate, the risk of a renewed overall downtrend increases.

Additionally, some argue that the greatest risk facing Bitcoin does not stem from any single geopolitical event, but rather from the potential for such shocks to reignite inflation expectations, push up yields, and tighten financial conditions once again. Financial markets are currently experiencing inflationary pressures, which could trigger higher yields and tighter financial conditions. Meanwhile, the rise of gold as a safe-haven asset signals a shift in investor sentiment. This underscores that Bitcoin's position as “digital gold” in the market may be weakened.

Increased USDC redemptions and declining capital inflows have intensified capital concerns. On-chain data indicates a shrinking stablecoin supply and tightening liquidity. The market anticipates challenges following the expiration of a large volume of Bitcoin options.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's rebound from US$80,492 appears to have peaked at US$97,922, having previously encountered resistance near US$97,986 from the 38.2% retracement level of the US$126,289 to US$80,492 range and the 55-week moving average. A decisive break below the US$86,405 support level would further reinforce the view that the downtrend originating from US$126,289 remains intact, potentially triggering another comprehensive test of the US$80,492 low.

If it falls below US$80,492, market focus will shift to a deeper mid-term pullback. Based on this, the next major downside target is the psychological threshold near US$70,000, which aligns with the 50% retracement level of the long-term uptrend from the 2022 low of US$15,452 to the 2025 high of US$126,289—specifically at US$70,870.

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 93500

Target Price: 70870

Stop Loss: 99900

Valid Until: February 23, 2026 23:55:00

Support: 85932, 80492, 74333

Resistance: 91586, 94236, 97986

USD/JPY recently weakened as the US dollar struggled near four-year lows, partly due to broader dollar selling pressure across currency markets after comments from political leadership that intensified selling dynamics, which lifted the yen and other major currencies. The yen’s strength and speculation about possible intervention have been significant drivers of recent moves, while the pair’s decline slowed as the yen’s rapid rally paused. This creates a near-term technical backdrop where the dollar could catch a relief bounce against the yen if sellers cool off and the yen stabilizes.

Sentiment toward USD/JPY has been bearish due to the dollar’s broad weakness and yen strength fueled by intervention talk and safe-haven flows, leading to short-term downward pressure. However, recent data shows the pair finding a lower range base around mid-150s, which could encourage dip buyers to enter. Market positioning and sentiment indicators suggest that while the broader trend shows challenges for the dollar, short-term sentiment could shift toward USD buying on pullbacks if the yen’s rally loses steam and macro drivers stabilize.

Technically, USD/JPY has been under pressure with momentum leaning bearish, but recent price action suggests the decline may have reached a temporary support zone near the 152–153 area, where the pair has paused and oscillators suggest a potential short-term stabilization. Indicators show mixed signals with some oversold conditions on shorter timeframes, indicating room for a corrective rebound. A break above local resistance levels near 155.0 could confirm short-term bullish intent, while immediate support around the recent low will be key for buyers to defend.

Entry: 153.80

Take Profit: 156.50

Stop Loss: 152.30

The Australian dollar has climbed significantly versus the US dollar, trading around higher levels near 0.7000 following a broad decline in the US dollar to four-year lows and upbeat Australian inflation figures that fuel expectations of Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) tightening. This dovish tone in the USD has supported AUD gains, but rapid advances can create technical exhaustion on intraday time frames like M15, increasing the chance of corrective pullbacks.

Sentiment remains tilted toward AUD strength due to sustained USD weakness and domestic inflation pressures, yet short-term traders may begin to reduce long positions after sharp upside moves. Market participants watching overbought signals could prompt retracements, and selling rallies on the M15 timeframe could capture short-term corrections before broader continuation patterns resume. This mixed environment supports a tactical sell-on-strength bias rather than expecting continued uninterrupted gains.

Technically, the pair’s breakout above key levels like 0.6920 and breach of 0.7000 reflect strong bullish momentum, but such moves also create overextension on shorter timeframes. Charts suggest rising resistance near recent highs with potential pullback targets below the breakout zone. When price loses upward steam and fails near resistance, retracements toward dynamic supports or established pivot zones can occur. The recent broad rally into these highs increases the likelihood of short-term corrective price action.

Entry: 0.7015

Take Profit: 0.6920

Stop Loss: 0.7060

Bitcoin price has spent the last couple of days stabilizing after recent volatility that saw lows near $86,000, with the current trading range near $88,000–$89,000. The broader crypto market has shown signs of cautious recovery as macro pressure on risk assets eases slightly, and BTC has found bids around key support zones. While the medium-term structure still shows downside elements, on the shorter M15 timeframe, buyers have repeatedly defended the lower 80Ks, suggesting demand on dips. This creates a scenario where short-term upside moves are possible, especially if BTC buyers regain control of the range and push price back above immediate resistance levels.

Sentiment remains mixed but somewhat constructive for a tactical buy. Although bearish technical signals exist on longer timeframes, the near-term sentiment shows cautious optimism as Bitcoin nears $89K with rebounds from recent support levels. Some analysts and price action data point to consolidation around these levels, implying dip buyers are active and may continue defending key zones, which supports a buy-on-dip strategy.

On the M15 timeframe, local support derived from recent lows around $86,000–$87,000 has repeatedly held, leading to renewed short-term bounce attempts. Price oscillations within the $87,000–$89,500 band show that buyers may be stepping in at lower bounds, creating short-term demand that could lead to upside moves toward nearby resistance. If BTC holds above intra-session support and breaks above the $89,500–$90,000 range with momentum, this would confirm the bullish bias for this buy setup.

Entry: 89200

Take Profit: 90300

Stop Loss: 87900

Gold has recently vaulted past $5,200 per ounce and, according to multiple reports, climbed even beyond $5,300 in early Asian trading, marking fresh all-time highs driven by heightened geopolitical tensions and a notable slide in the US dollar. Investors continue to flock to gold as a safe-haven asset while the dollar weakens, creating strong fundamental support for higher prices. However, this explosive rally has stretched short-term technical indicators and led to an overextended structure on lower timeframes such as M15, which often precedes corrective moves. While the long-term trend stays bullish, near-term price behavior suggests opportunities for downside corrections or pullbacks.

Sentiment remains heavily tilted toward gold bulls in the broader macro context as safe-haven demand intensifies. Nonetheless, on lower timeframes, traders are showing early signs of caution as the rapid advance pushes momentum measures into extreme territory. With the RSI and MACD indicating overbought conditions and price far above moving average baselines, short-term sentiment may shift toward profit-taking and rotational selling, especially if buyers pause near current highs without fresh catalysts. This short-term fatigue supports a sell-on-strength approach.

On the M15 timeframe, gold’s price structure has extended sharply with record levels and reduced pullbacks, reflecting strong but overstretched momentum. Technical data from live sources show price levels tightening near fresh highs, suggesting limited room for further upside before corrective reactions appear. Overbought conditions on short timeframes may trigger minor retracements toward dynamic support zones or lower bands, even within a broader uptrend. Lower highs and potential rejection signals near resistance peaks enhance the case for tactical shorts on strength.

Entry: 5280

Take Profit: 5170

Stop Loss: 5305