Market May Shift Back to Bearish

Alan

Summary:

The crude oil market remains trapped in a stalemate of supply-demand imbalance.

SELL WTI

Close Time

CLOSED

61.378

Entry Price

46.500

63.900

89.474 -0.715 -0.79%

252.2

Pips

Loss

46.500

63.910

Exit Price

61.378

Entry Price

63.900

Fundamentals

Yesterday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its latest report, forecasting global oil demand to grow by 730,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2025, far below last month's prediction of 1.03 million b/d and marking the slowest growth rate in five years. This downward revision stems primarily from punitive tariffs imposed by the U.S. on major trading partners. The cut exceeds even the downward production adjustments announced by OPEC+ on Monday, further amplifying concerns over supply-demand imbalances.

Today, the White House announced that tariffs on Chinese goods imported to the U.S. have risen to a maximum of 245% due to China's retaliatory trade measures. This escalation intensifies U.S.-China trade friction, directly disrupting bilateral trade flows and global supply chain efficiency. Rising trade tensions could lead to a sustained contraction in new export orders for Chinese manufacturing, further weakening China's crude oil import momentum amid slowing Q1 GDP growth.

On the supply side, the oversupply trend is worsening. While OPEC+ plans to increase output by 411,000 b/d starting in May, actual production may far exceed quotas. Data shows Russia's March output reached 10.5 million b/d, with Kazakhstan exceeding its quota by 390,000 b/d, pushing total incremental supply beyond 600,000 b/d.

In general, the crude oil market remains stuck in a supply-demand stalemate, with prices likely to stay under pressure.

Technical Analysis

Based on the daily chart, WTI starts the overbought rebound and surges to the pressure level of 62.5. Meanwhile, it also reaches the 10-day SMA and forms a resonance, adding difficulty to move upward. Short−term upside momentum faces headwinds. If WTI exhibits weakening signals, it is extremely likely to depreciate further. But if WTI crosses over 62.5 and ascends, it may test the overhead pressure level at 65.00.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 61.40

Target price: 46.50

Stop loss: 63.90

Valid Until: April 30, 2025, 23:00:00

Support: 54.75/50.00

Resistance: 62.76/65.00

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