Interest Rates Unchanged! USDCAD Extends Downtrend

Forex

Technical Analysis

Summary:

Amid uncertainty over Fed policy and fears of a renewed U.S. government shutdown, USDCAD may face selling pressure with limited upside potential. The interest rate decisions by the Fed and the Bank of Canada (BoC) will be the key focus later on Wednesday.

SELL USDCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.37372

Entry Price

1.35300

1.39300

1.35814 +0.00067 +0.05%

129.2

Pips

Profit

1.35300

1.36080

Exit Price

1.37372

Entry Price

1.39300

Fundamentals

Uncertainty surrounding Fed policy and concerns about a potential U.S. government shutdown are likely to exert selling pressure on USDCAD, capping its upside. The rate decisions from the Fed and the BoC

will take center stage later Wednesday. Markets widely expect the BoC to keep its benchmark rate unchanged at 2.25% at its January meeting, as inflation remains within the target range.

TD Bank analysts note that current economic data is insufficient to prompt the central bank to shift its policy stance. The underlying economy remains weak and faces significant uncertainties, despite easing inflationary pressures. Analysts point out that the BoC would only be forced to act if economic growth falls significantly short of expectations or the labor market deteriorates markedly. While the market consensus is for no rate adjustment this week, the prospect of further rate hikes has not been completely ruled out. Some institutions anticipate the BoC may raise rates again later this year, with a total hike of up to 50 bps.

It is also believed that the central bank will signal its future policy direction through its statement at this meeting, but the overall tone will remain balanced, without a clear dovish or hawkish tilt. Against the backdrop of persistently rising living costs and food price inflation nearly double the overall inflation rate, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced that the federal government will provide more direct fiscal support to residents by increasing the existing GST rebate. The rebate will be renamed the Canada Food and Necessities Benefit, with a 25% increase starting in July this year for a five-year period, alongside a one-time additional payment equivalent to 50% of the annual benefit level.

The Fed is also expected to hold interest rates steady, though it faces distinct challenges, including U.S. President Donald Trump's attempts to undermine the central bank's independence and the uncertainty over who will succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair when his term ends in May. Trump stated last week that he will soon announce his nominee for the next Fed Chair. Speculation over the successor is likely to weigh on the U.S. dollar, as markets expect the new Fed chief to lean toward accelerating the pace of rate cuts.

The U.S. government is facing the risk of a partial shutdown, as Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer vowed to oppose a funding bill that includes appropriations for the Department of Homeland Security. Congress must pass government funding by January 30, or a partial shutdown will occur, which could drag the USDCAD exchange rate lower.

On the other hand, Trump's renewed tariff threats may limit the Canadian dollar's upside. Trump threatened on Saturday to impose a 100% tariff on Canadian goods if Canada strikes a trade deal with China, sparking fears of a resurgence of trade tensions.

Technical Analysis

From a weekly perspective, USDCAD has broken below the Bollinger Middle Band once again, and the MACD line and signal line have formed a death cross near the zero axis, indicating the continuation of the bearish trend. If prices continue to trade below the Bollinger Middle Band, the pair is highly likely to drop to around the EMA200 at 1.364 and the previous low at 1.353. The RSI stands at 42, entering the bearish territory, with lower highs forming consecutively.

On the 15-minute timeframe, the Bollinger Bands have contracted and narrowed, MAs have flattened, and bullish momentum has weakened significantly. Prices faced strong resistance after rebounding to the EMA200, signaling the late stage of a corrective bounce. Immediate support levels are seen at the psychological level of 1.37 and the previous low around 1.367. The RSI is at 54, reflecting neutral market sentiment with investors on the sidelines.

Therefore, it is recommended to adopt a sell-on-rallies approach as the primary strategy.

Interest Rates Unchanged! USDCAD Extends Downtrend_1

Interest Rates Unchanged! USDCAD Extends Downtrend_2

Trade Recommendations

Trade Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 1.376

Target Price: 1.353

Stop Loss: 1.393

Support: 1.36/1.357/1.35

Resistance Levels: 1.4/1.441/1.42

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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Gerik

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is trading near the $88,000 area, showing hesitation to reclaim key upside levels above ~$90K amid ongoing consolidation and weaker risk appetite...

SELL BTC-USDT

EXP

TRADING

88200.0

Entry Price

85500.0

89700.0

89262.1 +12.1 +0.01%

0.0

Pips

Flat

85500.0

Exit Price

88200.0

Entry Price

89700.0

Market Overview

Bitcoin’s price has been ranging around the $88,000–$89,000 area after a notable decline from its peak near $126,000 in late 2025. The market’s failure to sustain levels above ~$90K highlights resistance and a lack of clear bullish conviction. Macroeconomic uncertainties, including cautious investor positioning ahead of key central bank meetings, have contributed to Bitcoin’s consolidation and risk-off sentiment among traders. Cryptocurrencies like BTC continue to be treated more as risk assets rather than safe havens, which has pressured prices when broader financial markets exhibit volatility.

Market Sentiment

Sentiment in the short term is tilted toward caution and mild bearishness. With Bitcoin trading below resistance zones and lacking strong follow-through buying pressure, the market exhibits a wait-and-see attitude. Recent news suggests institutional flows have retreated while safe-haven assets like gold attract capital, underscoring risk aversion that weighs on BTC. This dynamic supports a short-term sell setup on strength rather than chasing potential breakouts that lack momentum.

Technical Analysis

On the M15 timeframe, the price remains below significant resistance clustered near the previous ~$90K threshold, failing to capitalize on intraday rallies. Recent technical summaries highlight a prevalence of sell signals and bearish moving average alignments across multiple timeframes, indicating downside bias. With Bitcoin’s RSI and MACD showing subdued momentum, there is a higher probability for pullbacks or continued range compression rather than immediate upside. This environment offers a favorable condition for short trades on signs of strength being rejected near local resistance.

Trade Recommendation

Entry: 88200

Take Profit: 85500

Stop Loss: 89700

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Commodity

Summary:

n 27/01/2026, gold (XAU/USD) remains elevated around 5070 after recent record highs above 5100, with the price action showing signs of exhaustion and bearish pressure dominating on M15...

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

5070.00

Entry Price

4985.00

5120.00

5259.61 +81.03 +1.56%

500.0

Pips

Loss

4985.00

5120.40

Exit Price

5070.00

Entry Price

5120.00

Market Overview

Gold (XAU/USD) has been trading at extremely high levels following records above $5000/oz, pushed by sustained safe-haven demand amid geopolitical and macro uncertainties, and a weakened USD. Despite the broader bullish backdrop, the most recent short-term price behavior reveals that rallies near 5100–5105 have been met with resistance, keeping upside momentum in check on lower time frames (M15). This dynamic creates the potential for intraday corrective moves as traders lock in profits from elevated levels. Recent sentiment and technical signals on M15 indicate that unless XAU decisively holds above immediate resistance around 5105, the bias remains tilted toward selling strength rather than buying dips.

Market Sentiment

Investor sentiment in the near term shows buyers reaching a potential exhaustion phase after a dramatic rally caused by safe-haven inflows. Record pricing has stretched momentum, and some market participants are starting to look for pullbacks to secure gains. While gold’s long-term profile is bullish, short-term sentiment on M15 reflects bearish pressure dominating around the current price band, particularly as price fails to maintain breaks above the key 5105 resistance area. This subtle shift in intraday psychology supports sellers looking to capitalize on corrective reactions rather than continuation at these levels.

Technical Analysis

With XAU trading around the current price of 5070, resistance at approximately 5105 remains a critical level that has repelled recent upside attempts. On M15 timeframes, failure to sustain above this resistance suggests the potential for short-term swings lower. If this resistance continues to hold, it may trigger retracements toward the next support zones. Indicators such as short-term dynamic resistance levels and recent bearish pressure indicate that downward moves are more probable when rallies lose steam near the mentioned zone. Conversely, a break and hold above 5105 would invalidate the short bias and suggest a shift back toward buyers.

Trade Recommendation

Entry: 5070

Take Profit: 4985

Stop Loss: 5120

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Forex

Economic

Summary:

USDCHF is trading around ~0.7770, continuing its recent downtrend on weakening US dollar sentiment and persistent Swiss franc strength amid safe-haven flows...

SELL USDCHF

Close Time

CLOSED

0.77750

Entry Price

0.77200

0.78150

0.76523 +0.00398 +0.52%

55.0

Pips

Profit

0.77200

Exit Price

0.77750

Entry Price

0.78150

Current Market Overview and Macro Drivers

USDCHF is currently around 0.7769–0.7776, showing a continuation of the broader decline after the U.S. dollar lost ground across major currencies and the Swiss franc held firm as a traditional safe-haven currency. Today’s session has seen price range between approx 0.7747–0.7776, reflecting the ongoing bearish context.

The Swiss franc’s resilience and subdued dollar sentiment are key macro drivers keeping sellers intact and preventing sustained rallies above nearby resistance. A mix of weaker U.S. economic cues and global risk considerations continues to lend support to CHF strength relative to the greenback.

Market Psychology

Short-term market psychology for USDCHF leans bearish as key resistance around the 0.7800–0.7820 zone has repeatedly capped upside attempts. Price holding below this area conveys that buyers lack conviction and that sellers are defending higher levels. The inability of USDCHF to sustain rallies and reclaim those upper bands suggests a continuation of bearish sentiment, with traders more inclined toward selling rallies than buying dips. The lower daily range also signals that sellers retain control, waiting for a break below immediate supports to accelerate the decline.

Technical Analysis

USDCHF Holds Bearish Bias Near 0.7770 as Dollar Weakness Persists_1

On the M15 timeframe, USDCHF is showing bearish structure with price evolving below recent intraday highs. Price action is forming lower highs and lower lows, testing immediate support levels close to the 0.7740–0.7750 area. Technical indicators reflect weakening momentum: Bollinger Bands show price hugging the lower band more often than not, hinting at prevailing downside pressure. Ichimoku on short intervals likely has price trading under the Tenkan and Kijun, indicating bearish bias. Stochastic (5,3,3) has room to fall further from neutral, supporting continuation if sellers maintain strength. With current trading near 0.7770, a decisive break below key intraday support could accelerate flows toward lower targets in the short run.

Trade Recommendation

Entry: 0.7775

Take Profit: 0.7720

Stop Loss: 0.7815

This setup aims to capture continuation of the bearish trend from current levels. The entry is placed near recent intraday supply where sellers re-entered, take profit targets the next support cluster below the current range, and stop loss sits just above recent minor resistance to limit risk if price reverses. Monitor U.S. macro releases and any Swiss National Bank commentary as potential catalysts for volatility. (Investing.com)

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Forex

Economic

Summary:

AUDJPY is trading around 106.66 after sliding within the day’s range 106.50–106.77, showing dip-buying but still close to intraday resistance....

BUY AUDJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

106.699

Entry Price

107.200

106.440

106.884 +0.187 +0.18%

25.9

Pips

Loss

106.440

106.423

Exit Price

106.699

Entry Price

107.200

Overview

AUDJPY’s current tape is best described as “buy-the-dip but not yet breakout.” The spot print around 106.66 matters because it sits right at the edge of a tight intraday range (roughly 106.50–106.77). When a pair compresses like this after a multi-session swing (recent sessions included moves above 107 and back down), the next directional leg usually comes from who wins the 106.50 floor versus the 106.75–106.80 ceiling. Macro-wise, AUDJPY remains sensitive to risk tone: AUD tends to benefit when risk appetite is steady, while JPY often strengthens during sudden risk-off bursts. That’s why the “quality” of the rebound matters more than the rebound itself: if price can lift without heavy whipsaws, it usually signals carry demand returning rather than just short covering.

Market psychology

The key psychological tell today is that sellers have not been able to extend below 106.50 despite trading close to it, while buyers also haven’t proven they can defend above 106.70–106.80 for long.

That stalemate often creates a trap: late sellers press into support expecting a breakdown, then get squeezed if the pair reclaims the mid-zone; late buyers chase the first green candles, then get punished if price fades back into the range. In this kind of environment, a BUY idea only makes sense if it is anchored to structure: you want confirmation that the market is printing higher lows and rotating back above intraday “fair value,” rather than buying into the top of the box.

Technical analysis

On M15, the Bollinger Bands (20,0,2) are currently tight because price is consolidating; that matters because tight bands often precede expansion. The trade edge comes from aligning the expansion direction with structure: if candles begin to close above the mid-band while the upper band starts to curl upward, that is your first sign the market is shifting from balance to markup.

The Ichimoku (9,26,52) lens is similar: a clean reclaim of Tenkan and Kijun after a dip, followed by Kijun flattening or turning up, usually signals that the pullback has finished and the market is rebuilding a base. You also want to see price spending more time above the Kijun than below it; otherwise it’s still just chop. The Stochastic (5,3,3) should ideally reset (cool down) and then hook up again without staying pinned in oversold, this is the classic continuation rhythm in a range-to-breakout transition. As a reality check, broader technical dashboards show the pair near neutral on momentum but with mixed moving-average bias, which matches the idea that the market is deciding direction rather than already trending. With spot around 106.66, the actionable M15 thesis is: defend above the lower edge (106.50 area) and reclaim the mid/upper portion of the range (106.70–106.80) to open space for an upside push.

Trade recommendation

Entry: 106.72

Take Profit: 107.20

Stop Loss: 106.44

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Forex

Economic

Summary:

The histogram is printing progressively smaller bearish bars, signaling that the sell-side pressure is dissipating.

BUY EURGBP

EXP

TRADING

0.86874

Entry Price

0.87300

0.86400

0.86886 -0.00050 -0.06%

0.0

Pips

Flat

0.86400

Exit Price

0.86874

Entry Price

0.87300

The British Pound (GBP) has entered a phase of technical consolidation, successfully stabilizing the gains achieved during last week’s robust bullish surge. This resilience in the Sterling is primarily catalyzed by a suite of macroeconomic indicators that exceeded consensus expectations, suggesting a firmer economic recovery in the United Kingdom than previously anticipated.

A decisive factor in this shift in sentiment was the private sector performance captured by the S&P Global PMIs. The Composite Index climbed to 53.9 in January, a reading that not only beat market projections but also marked a significant acceleration from the previous month. This optimism was further bolstered by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), which reported a 0.4% rebound in December retail sales, effectively ending a sequence of two consecutive monthly contractions.

With a relatively light economic calendar for the upcoming week, market participants are likely to shift their focus toward global risk management and strategic positioning ahead of the Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy meeting in February. While the BoE’s official communications maintain a roadmap toward gradual easing, the internal rhetoric of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) remains defensive. Key members have emphasized the necessity of prudence, noting that robust wage growth and sticky underlying inflation remain structural risks that could delay a more aggressive pivot in interest rates.

In contrast, economic sentiment in Germany remains stagnant at depressed levels, as confirmed by the latest IFO Business Climate Index. The reading held steady at 87.6 in January, missing expectations for a recovery to 88.1. These figures underscore fragile economic momentum within the Eurozone's largest economy, characterized by persistent structural headwinds. Complementing this, the broader Eurozone Services PMI retreated to 51.9, highlighting domestic weakness and prompting European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers to maintain a neutral, data-dependent stance, largely dissipating market hopes for aggressive rate cuts in the near term. Bullish Momentum In Play As Sellers Lose Their Grip_1

Bullish Momentum In Play As Sellers Lose Their Grip_1

Technical Analysis

EUR/GBP is currently navigating a consolidation phase that appears to be reaching an inflection point. The pair has failed to establish a fresh lower low beneath the 0.8644 mark set on January 6th. This inability to extend the bearish sequence suggests that the downward dominance is losing its efficacy.

On the 3-hour chart, the 100 and 200-period Moving Averages are situated at 0.8681 and 0.8694, respectively. Currently, price action is attempting to close decisively above the 100-period MA. If this structural shift is maintained, we could witness a new bullish impulse originating from this support floor.

Our momentum analysis via the MACD further supports this transition. The histogram is printing progressively smaller bearish bars, signaling that the sell-side pressure is dissipating. A bullish crossover of the signal lines appears imminent in the upcoming sessions. Furthermore, we have identified a hidden bullish divergence; the recent bearish histogram expansion was significantly larger than the actual price retracement, suggesting that the bears are exhausted and unable to push prices lower despite the momentum.

This technical confluence favors the bulls taking control of the narrative, with primary upside objectives targeted at the 0.8732 resistance zone. However, traders should remain vigilant: a decisive break below the local low would invalidate this bullish setup and open the door for a bearish continuation.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 0.8686

Target price: 0.8730

Stop loss: 0.8640

Validity: Feb 06, 2026 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Forex

Economic

Summary:

This confluence of Fibonacci levels and moving average resistance adds significant technical weight to this target.

BUY EURAUD

EXP

TRADING

1.71870

Entry Price

1.74500

1.70500

1.71276 -0.00418 -0.24%

0.0

Pips

Flat

1.70500

Exit Price

1.71870

Entry Price

1.74500

Economic sentiment in Germany remains stagnant at low levels, as confirmed by the latest IFO Business Climate Index. The reading held steady at 87.6 in January, missing market expectations for an improvement to 88.1. While the Current Assessment Index saw a marginal uptick to 85.7, the Expectations Index deteriorated slightly to 89.5. These figures underscore a fragile economic momentum within the Eurozone's largest economy, characterized by persistent structural headwinds.

Complementing this data, Friday’s preliminary Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) offered a mixed narrative. While the manufacturing sector showed signs of improvement, it remains firmly entrenched in contractionary territory. Conversely, the services sector continues to expand, albeit at a slower pace than anticipated. The broader Eurozone Services PMI retreated to 51.9 in January, missing forecasts and highlighting domestic weakness. In contrast, Germany's services sector outperformed expectations, maintaining its expansionary stance even as manufacturing struggled.

Against this backdrop, European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers maintained a neutral stance during their December deliberations, refraining from discussions on rate adjustments. The governing council emphasized a strictly data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach. Market expectations for aggressive rate cuts this year have largely dissipated, fueled by a complex economic landscape and the persistence of service-sector inflation.

Geopolitical tensions also remain a primary driver of market volatility. Despite U.S.-mediated peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, the conflict shows no signs of de-escalation. Recent reports indicate a large-scale drone offensive by Russian forces, while Ukrainian strikes targeted a Russian oil refinery in the Krasnodar region, keeping risk premiums elevated across European assets.

Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar is finding support ahead of the highly anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) release for Q4 2025. Projections suggest quarterly inflation may accelerate to an annual rate of 3.6%, up from the previous 3.2%. Such a result would reinforce the view that inflationary pressures remain uncomfortably above the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) target. Hotter-than-expected CPI data would likely solidify expectations for a hawkish pivot in the near term. Recent Australian activity indicators support this trend, with PMI surveys showing robust expansion across both manufacturing and services, alongside a notably resilient labor market. Bullish Pivot In EURAUD Opens The Path Toward Key Structural Resistance_1

Bullish Pivot In EURAUD Opens The Path Toward Key Structural Resistance_1

Technical Analysis

The EURAUD pair is currently staging a technical rebound following a sustained bearish trend that bottomed at the 1.7093 level. At this trough, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hit an extreme reading of 22, signaling deeply oversold conditions and suggesting that the downward momentum had become overextended.

On the 4-hour chart, the 100 and 200-period Moving Averages (MAs) are positioned at 1.7413 and 1.7502, respectively. These averages are currently tracking the broader bearish trend and are expected to act as a significant technical "magnet" for the current recovery.

Our momentum analysis via the MACD provides further confirmation of this corrective shift. The indicator recently completed a bullish crossover from deep within negative territory, accompanied by the histogram turning positive. This development suggests that the path of least resistance in the short term has shifted to the upside.

The primary objective for this bullish recovery is the 1.7454 level, which aligns with the 0.50 Fibonacci retracement of the prior leg down. This confluence of Fibonacci levels and moving average resistance adds significant technical weight to this target. While the broader trend remains bearish, the current setup favors short-term long positions as the pair seeks a mean reversion toward these exposed technical levels.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 1.7182

Target price: 1.7450

Stop loss: 1.7050

Validity: Feb 6, 2026 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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