During this week's meeting, ECB President Christine Lagarde clearly signaled policy flexibility, stating that a rate hike could occur as early as April if the inflation shock triggered by a war with Iran spirals out of control. However, she noted that it is currently "too early" to make such an assessment. The focus is on judging the nature and scale of energy prices' impact on overall inflation and second-round effects. The market must look to the data for guidance on the subsequent policy path. Meanwhile, the deterioration of Germany's business confidence index, coupled with the worsening consumer confidence index, has exacerbated the fragility of the economic recovery. German officials have issued severe warnings about the slowdown in economic growth. Under the dual pressure of slowing ECB rate hike expectations and poor German data performance, the euro is again facing passive downward pressure. Besides, Germany's April consumer confidence index fell by 3.2 points from the previous reading to -28.0. This figure was lower than analysts' previous expectation of -27.0, indicating that the pessimism among the German public regarding the economic outlook is intensifying. The data was collected between March 5 and 16, a period marked by escalating tensions in the Middle East, which caused volatility in global energy markets. The decline in consumer confidence is primarily due to deep concerns from households about further increases in energy prices.

The daily chart reveals downward-opening Bollinger Bands, with the moving averages diverging downwards, indicating that the overall downtrend remains unchanged. The MACD's bearish momentum has somewhat weakened; both lines have formed a golden cross and are pulling back towards the zero line. As they are still far from the line, it suggests the rebound is not yet complete. It is highly likely to continue rebounding towards the EMA50 and the Bollinger Middle Band, at 1.166 and 1.162, respectively. The RSI reading is 43, indicating a pessimistic market sentiment. Based on the 4H chart, the Bollinger Bands are narrowing, the moving averages are flattening, and the price is oscillating between the upper and lower bands, suggesting an imminent trend reversal. The RSI value is 44, indicating a pessimistic market sentiment. In the short term, as long as there are no new lows, the trend could shift from bearish to bullish. Buying the dips is recommended.

Trading direction: Buy

Entry Price: 1.153

Target Price: 1.18

Stop Loss: 1.14

Support: 1.15/1.14/1.13

Resistance: 1.17/1.18/1.21