Fed Divided! Gold Crashing Below $4,000

Summary:

In the week ending July 11, initial jobless claims in the United States totaled 208,000, marking the lowest level since the week of May 2, 2026, and further confirming the stability of the labor market.

BUY XAUUSD

EXP

PENDING

3900.00

Entry Price

4600.00

3600.00

3996.29 +20.26 +0.51%

Pips

PENDING

3600.00

Exit Price

3900.00

Entry Price

4600.00

Fundamentals

Iran and the United States exchanged even more intense attacks on Thursday, as a week-long escalation of the conflict has essentially dismantled the ceasefire agreement reached last month. U.S. Central Command confirmed that U.S. forces “carried out new strikes against Iran for the sixth consecutive night to further degrade its military capabilities”; Tehran retaliated with missiles and drones, targeting U.S. military bases in neighboring countries. More critically, Iran has instructed Yemen’s Houthi rebels to prepare to immediately block oil shipping lanes in the Red Sea should the U.S. attack Iran’s power infrastructure, posing a new and serious threat to global energy supplies.

Dallas Fed President Logan has become the first policymaker since Fed Chair Wash took office to publicly call for an interest rate hike, setting the stage for potential dissent at the upcoming interest rate meeting in two weeks. Logan noted that “inflation has been too high for too long and does not appear likely to fully return to the 2% target,” and therefore believes that “moderate rate hikes would better balance the risks between the goals of maximum employment and price stability.”

Technical Analysis

On the four-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands are widening downward, moving averages are diverging downward, and the MACD fast and slow lines continue to trade below the 0 line, indicating that the bearish trend remains intact. The RSI stands at 38, indicating strong market pessimism. On the daily chart, the Bollinger Bands are widening downward, and the moving averages are diverging downward. With the RSI at 38, market sentiment is predominantly bearish, and a test of the lower Bollinger Band is highly likely. However, gold is already approaching the bottom range; therefore, the recommended strategy is to buy on dips.

Fed Divided! Gold Crashing Below $4,000_1

Fed Divided! Gold Crashing Below $4,000_2

Trading Recommendation

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 3900

Target Price: 4600

Stop-Loss Price: 3600

Support Levels: 3900, 3600, 3500

Resistance Levels: 4200, 4300, 4600

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Fed Divided! Gold Crashing Below $4,000

Risk Disclosure