EUR/USD Rejected at 1.1532: Dollar Recovery Pressures the Euro Ahead of U.S. Payrolls

Forex

Summary:

EUR/USD is trading around 1.1525–1.1535 as the U.S. dollar steadies ahead of the highly anticipated U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report. ...

SELL EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.15320

Entry Price

1.14550

1.15750

1.15590 +0.00360 +0.31%

43.0

Pips

Loss

1.14550

1.15754

Exit Price

1.15320

Entry Price

1.15750

Market Overview

EUR/USD has struggled to extend its recent rally despite remaining above the psychological 1.1500 level. Investors have shifted into a wait-and-see mode ahead of the July U.S. employment report, which is expected to show approximately 80,000 new jobs with the unemployment rate holding at 4.2%. The outcome will play a crucial role in determining whether the Federal Reserve maintains the possibility of another rate hike later this year.

Meanwhile, geopolitical uncertainty surrounding developments in the Middle East has increased demand for defensive assets, providing additional support to the U.S. dollar. Although the euro continues to benefit from relatively stable Eurozone economic data, the lack of fresh bullish catalysts has made it difficult for buyers to sustain momentum above the mid-1.15 area. Until payrolls are released, the pair is likely to remain highly sensitive to changes in Treasury yields and Fed expectations.

Market Sentiment

Institutional sentiment has become increasingly cautious. Many traders are reducing directional exposure before the payrolls release rather than initiating new positions. Options pricing implies elevated volatility following the data, while positioning suggests the market remains slightly biased toward a stronger U.S. dollar if employment data surprises to the upside.

The repeated rejection around 1.1530–1.1540 indicates that sellers remain active at higher levels. Unless the payroll report materially weakens the dollar outlook, rallies are likely to continue attracting selling interest.

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD Rejected at 1.1532: Dollar Recovery Pressures the Euro Ahead of U.S. Payrolls_1

On the M15 timeframe, Bollinger Bands (20,0,2) are beginning to contract after several hours of sideways movement. Price has repeatedly failed to close above the upper Bollinger Band near 1.1532, indicating weakening bullish momentum and increasing the probability of a short-term pullback.

The Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9,26,52) shows price still trading above the Kumo, but the Tenkan-sen has flattened and is beginning to converge toward the Kijun-sen. This reflects fading buying momentum and suggests the recent bullish trend is losing strength. A bearish crossover would strengthen the case for a corrective decline.

The Stochastic (5,3,3) is rolling over from overbought territory and has produced a bearish crossover, indicating that upside momentum is fading. Immediate resistance is located at 1.1555, while initial support is found near 1.1485, followed by 1.1455. As long as price remains below 1.1555, the M15 technical structure favors a move toward the lower support zone.

Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.1532

Take Profit: 1.1455

Stop Loss: 1.1575

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