EUR/USD Breaks Its 2026 Floor After Hot CPI: Can Buyers Reclaim 1.1100?

Forex

Summary:

EUR/USD slipped to a fresh low near 1.1066, extending the drop that began when hot US October CPI reinforced bets on another Fed hike. Over the next sessions, the M15 direction depends on whether buyers can retake the 1.1105-1.1111 zone before US PPI on 13/11....

BUY EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.10901

Entry Price

1.11350

1.10600

1.10531 -0.00011 -0.01%

30.1

Pips

Loss

1.10600

1.10599

Exit Price

1.10901

Entry Price

1.11350

Overview

On 12/11/2026, EUR/USD is trading near 1.10770 as of this writing. A low of nearly 1.10655 was challenged this morning. The move is a straight continuation of the CPI shock. The pair closed 10 November at 1.1164 after a 1.1252 high, then lost another 0.66% on 11 November to 1.1090, which works out to almost 190 pips off Tuesday’s peak in under two sessions. The level that matters most is the old floor. The euro fell to 1.1105, its weakest level in 17 months, minutes after the European Central Bank (ECB) held rates at 2.50% on 29 October 2026. Within a day it was trading back above 1.1200. Price is now trading below that floor, but the last break below it was a false move, and that precedent is the core of the buy case. Fundamentally, the euro is caught between two forces. ECB President Christine Lagarde said at the October press conference that a rate hike was discussed by the Governing Council, which supports rate differentials. At the same time, France’s National Assembly this week rejected the revenue side of the 2027 budget, adding to the strain on the country’s public finances. Because France’s fiscal crisis has pushed 10-year OAT yields to their highest level since 2002, euro-specific risk keeps any rebound limited. EUR/USD: Has the Inflation Shock Been Fully Priced In? +5

Market Sentiment

Sentiment is clearly bearish, but positioning looks stretched. DailyForex notes that the U.S Fed has essentially has at least one more interest rate hike factored into the EUR/USD and it is nearing contemplation of one after December. That is the key point. With a December Fed hike already priced, further Dollar gains need markets to start pricing hikes in 2027, which is a much higher bar for PPI to clear. On the euro side, should the ECB pair its December hike with guidance for further tightening, EUR/USD would be expected to hold above the 2026 low of 1.1105 into year-end. The main risk to the long is weak euro-area growth. In Q3, the euro area grew 0.4% q/q while France contracted 0.1%, which could make the ECB hesitant.

Technical Analysis

On the M15 chart, EUR/USD is basing just above the 1.1066 low. Today’s range of 1.1066-1.1101 is narrow compared with the two prior sessions, which points to slowing downside momentum. The Bollinger Bands (20,2) are narrowing after widening sharply post-CPI, and price is lifting off the lower band. Squeezes after a strong trend usually end in a fast move, and holding above 1.1066 favours the upside. On Ichimoku (9,26,52), price remains below the Kumo, but the Tenkan-sen is flattening, an early sign that momentum is fading. Stochastic (5,3,3) is coming out of oversold territory. A bullish %K/%D crossover above 20 would confirm the long. Resistance sits at 1.1105-1.1111, where BBH flagged 1.1111 (50% retracement of 2025-2026 uptrend). A break above it targets 1.1135. An M15 close below 1.1060 would cancel the setup.

Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.1090

Take Profit: 1.1135

Stop Loss: 1.1060

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