EUR/USD at 1.1620: Resistance Meets a Crucial U.S. Jobs Catalyst

Forex

Summary:

On 4 September 2026, EUR/USD is trading around 1.1625, with 1.1620–1.1630 emerging as a major short-term resistance area ahead of the U.S. August employment report. ...

SELL EURUSD

EXP

PENDING

1.16200

Entry Price

1.15850

1.16450

1.16267 +0.00022 +0.02%

Pips

PENDING

1.15850

Exit Price

1.16200

Entry Price

1.16450

Overall

EUR/USD has recovered strongly from the late-August decline toward 1.1570 and is now pressing into the 1.1620–1.1650 resistance band. Current market pricing around 1.1625 places the pair directly at the upper boundary of the recent recovery. Agrodana identifies 1.1630–1.1650 as the next important resistance, while 1.1600 has developed into near-term support.

The fundamental picture has shifted against aggressive USD bulls. Waller's latest comments reduced September Fed-hike expectations from above 60% toward roughly 50%, while U.S. Treasury yields also declined. The dollar subsequently weakened and EUR/USD reached approximately 1.1634.

However, this does not automatically create a bullish EUR/USD trend. Today's U.S. NFP report is the immediate catalyst. A stronger employment result could rapidly restore Fed-hike expectations and send EUR/USD back below 1.1600. The market is therefore positioned at an unusually sensitive technical level immediately before a major macro release.

Market Sentiment

Sentiment is neutral-to-bullish, but the rally is approaching a point where buyers need fresh fundamental confirmation. The euro has additional support from expectations that the ECB will raise rates by 25 bps on September 10, with Reuters economists unanimously expecting the move.

At the same time, the dollar has lost some momentum after Waller's comments. Reuters reports that the dollar index fell 0.69% on Thursday while EUR/USD rose to approximately 1.1634. This makes the SELL fundamentally less comfortable than earlier in the week.

The reason to sell 1.1620 is therefore primarily technical. Multiple analyses identify this region as a significant barrier. A technical report describes 1.1620 as the critical resistance whose breakout would open the way toward 1.1655 and 1.1700. If price repeatedly fails around 1.1620–1.1630 before NFP, trapped late buyers could provide the liquidity required for a short-term M15 reversal.

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD at 1.1620: Resistance Meets a Crucial U.S. Jobs Catalyst_1

Using Bollinger Bands (20,0,2), Ichimoku (9,26,52), and Stochastic (5/3/3), the setup favors a tactical SELL from 1.1620 only after rejection confirmation.

Bollinger Bands are expanding following the recent rebound. Price approaching the upper band around 1.1620–1.1630 creates an exhaustion zone. The preferred signal is an M15 rejection above 1.1620 followed by a close back below the middle band. A break beneath 1.1600 would then confirm that the recovery is losing momentum.

Ichimoku has improved as EUR/USD recovered, but the pair is now approaching the upper boundary of the recent cloud structure. For the SELL to gain traction, price should fail to establish acceptance above 1.1630 and subsequently break Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen. A sustained M15 move above the cloud would invalidate the countertrend short.

Stochastic (5/3/3) should ideally produce a bearish crossover from the overbought region around 1.1620. This would provide the timing signal. If Stochastic remains strongly bullish and price closes above 1.1630, the short becomes dangerous because the next resistance is around 1.1655, followed by 1.1700.

The immediate support is 1.1600, followed by 1.1580–1.1570. The critical resistance is 1.1620–1.1630, with 1.1655 above it. The latest live technical feed shows EUR/USD around 1.163 with RSI near 57.7 and mixed short-term signals, reinforcing the need for rejection confirmation rather than blindly selling the level.

Trade Recommendation

Entry: 1.1620

Take Profit: 1.1585

Stop Loss: 1.1645

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