On Monday, CME Group raised its margin requirements, extending the decline in gold and silver after U.S. President Donald Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chairman. Previously, precious metals saw a significant sell-off due to President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair last week. "While Warsh's nomination may have been the initial catalyst, it doesn't explain the magnitude of the decline in precious metals," said Tim Waterer, chief trading analyst at KCM. "Forced selling and increased margins created a ripple effect." Analysts at JPMorgan, however, anticipate that despite recent market volatility, the upward trend will persist in the long term. Over the weekend, President Trump indicated that the U.S. is "on the verge" of a deal with Iran. Concurrently, Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, warned that any attack on Iran would trigger a regional conflict, while the U.S. continues to augment its troop presence in the region. Emma Wall, chief investment strategist at Hargreaves Lansdown, commented, "Investors and global central banks have favored gold as their preferred reserve currency, viewing it as a hedge against U.S. policy." She further noted, "Some nations have observed the potential seizure of Russian dollar assets by global powers supporting Ukraine, thus making gold a more attractive neutral reserve currency."

Heightened market caution regarding the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory, following President Donald Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, could bolster the dollar. This action is interpreted by the market as a signal of a more restrained and disciplined approach to monetary easing by the Fed. Fed officials have also adopted a cautious stance. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem indicated no need for further rate cuts, deeming the 3.50%-3.75% policy range largely neutral, while Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic reiterated that policy should remain moderately restrictive. The U.S. ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data is scheduled for release later on Monday. The index is expected to rise to 48.3 in January from 47.9 in December. A weaker-than-expected PMI report could weigh on the dollar and support commodity prices denominated in USD, as a softer dollar makes dollar-denominated gold more attractive to international purchasers.

In the 1W timeframe, gold has formed a bearish evening star pattern, signaling a potential short-term price peak. If it fails to hold the EMA 12, it's highly probable that the price will decline towards the middle Bollinger Band and EMA 50, which are situated around 4126 and 3800, respectively. Conversely, if support is established, a rebound to 4800 and 5000 is likely. The RSI is currently at 60, indicating predominantly optimistic market sentiment among investors. In the 1D timeframe, the Bollinger Bands have narrowed, and the moving averages are flattening. Following the evening star formation, the price has continued to decline with a large bearish candle, suggesting that the short-term downtrend is ongoing. The MACD has also generated a death cross at a high level, and the MACD line and signal line are retreating towards the zero-axis. Given the current distance from the zero-axis, this implies that the downward movement is not yet complete. Immediate support levels are identified at 4100 and 3900. The RSI is at 43, reflecting strong selling pressure in the market. It is recommended to go short before going long.

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 4100

Target Price: 5000

Stop Loss: 3800

Support: 4500, 4200, 4100

Resistance: 4700, 4800, 5000

Gold surged at an exceptional pace in January, with the monthly gain once approaching USD 1,300. Against the backdrop of persistent geopolitical risks and ongoing global economic uncertainty, safe-haven flows poured heavily into the gold market, pushing prices toward their strongest monthly performance since 1980.

However, market sentiment reversed noticeably in the latter half of the week. Rumors that Warsh could replace Powell as Fed chair and adopt a more hawkish stance gained traction during the Asian session, prompting markets to reassess the future path of monetary policy. Under this influence, gold prices plunged more than 4% intraday on Friday.

As expectations for a “less dovish” Fed chair intensified, the USD staged a short-term rebound. At the same time, gold had already been in a clearly overbought condition, with the prior rapid price advance lacking fresh fundamental support.

The intraday “flash crash” observed on Thursday signaled that the upside momentum of this rally was beginning to fade. By Friday, gold broke below the USD 5,000 psychological level, with intraday losses expanding to more than 7%. Risks at elevated price levels were rapidly released, and short-term topping signals became increasingly evident.

During the correction, part of the safe-haven demand rotated out of gold and temporarily shifted toward USD assets. Previously accumulated floating profits amplified the incentive for profit-taking at high levels.

Looking ahead, in the absence of renewed geopolitical escalation or strong macro-level stimulus in the near term, traders may continue to lock in profits. Gold may enter a phase of high-level consolidation or further correction in the short term, with the risk of continued volatility expansion remaining elevated.

Gold’s consecutive sharp pullbacks on Friday are consistent with expectations of heightened volatility following institutional selling. From the perspective of the current structural trend, large price swings are likely to persist into early next month. During this period, momentum indicators are prone to frequent breakouts and are therefore not recommended as trading references. Positioning should instead be based on key institutional selling levels.

Trade Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 5400

Target Price: 4519

Stop Loss: 5475

Valid Until: February 25, 2026 23:55:00

Support: 5045 / 4990 / 4940

Resistance: 5188 / 5241 / 5409

In a breathtaking reversal of fortune that underscores the extreme fragility of speculative market rallies, the silver market endured a violent and historic sell-off on Friday, surrendering a massive portion of its recent record-breaking gains. The precipitous drop, one of the most severe single-day corrections in modern memory, has sent shockwaves through the broader commodities complex and served as a stark reminder of the perils of frothy, leverage-fueled momentum.

After a parabolic ascent that captivated and concerned investors in equal measure, spot silver (XAG/USD) finally buckled under its own weight and a shifting macroeconomic tide. At last check, the white metal was trading near $102.20 per ounce, a staggering decline of 12.30% for the session. This gut-wrenching move effectively erased a significant chunk of the gains that propelled silver to an unprecedented all-time high of $121.66 just yesterday—a peak that now stands as a sobering monument to the frenzy that preceded the collapse.

The selling pressure, which began in Asian hours, metastasized into a full-blown liquidation event during the European trading session. Prices entered a near-freefall, momentarily breaching the critical psychological fortress of $100 to tag an intraday low of $95.08. The scale and velocity of the decline were not merely a function of disappointed bulls; they pointed directly to the forced unwinding of highly leveraged speculative positions. As stop-loss orders were triggered en masse, the selling fed upon itself, creating a vacuum of bids and exacerbating the downward spiral.

This was not an isolated tremor but part of a broader seismic shift rattling the precious metals space. The dramatic pullback reflects a rapid and harsh reassessment of the most speculative safe-haven assets. The market narrative, which for weeks had been dominated by geopolitical fear and endless liquidity, abruptly changed key.

The primary accelerant for today’s fire sale was a fundamental shift in the most important variable for non-yielding assets: the future path of U.S. monetary policy. The catalyst emerged from the political sphere, with the announcement that President Donald Trump intends to nominate Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve.

The market’s reaction was immediate and unequivocal. Warsh, a former Fed governor, is perceived by investors as notably more hawkish on inflation and a staunch advocate for a more aggressive reduction of the central bank’s bloated balance sheet. His potential leadership implies a Federal Reserve that would be significantly less accommodative, and potentially more proactive in tightening financial conditions, than previously priced in.

The consequences were instantaneous. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) surged, climbing off its recent lows as the prospect of higher relative yields boosted its appeal. Concurrently, U.S. Treasury yields jumped across the curve. For silver, which offers no interest or dividend, this twin development is poison. A stronger dollar makes dollar-denominated metals more expensive for foreign buyers, while higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding a asset that generates no income. The calculus for institutional holders changed in a matter of minutes.

Beyond the Warsh shock, today’s action embodies the classic market dynamic of "buy the rumor, sell the news" amplified to an extreme degree. The recent vertical rally, driven by a potent cocktail of Middle East tensions, global growth anxieties, and massive speculative inflows, had pushed silver into technically overbought territory of historic proportions. The market was a coiled spring, waiting for a catalyst to snap back.

The Fed nomination provided that trigger, prompting a long-overdue wave of profit-taking. Investors who rode the spectacular surge from lower levels seized the opportunity to convert paper gains into realized profits at still-elevated prices. This organic selling merged with the forced liquidation from leveraged players, creating a perfect storm of downward pressure.

Despite the brutal visual on today’s chart, it is crucial to maintain perspective. Even after this dramatic correction, silver remains on track to close one of its strongest monthly performances in history. The underlying fundamental drivers that fueled the rally have not vanished. Geopolitical risk, particularly in the Middle East, remains elevated. Questions surrounding global economic stamina and the ultimate trajectory of inflation are unresolved. The structural demand for tangible assets as a hedge against monetary debasement and uncertainty persists.

What today represents is not necessarily the end of the bullish narrative, but a severe and necessary market cleanse. It has shaken out the weakest hands, reset overextended technical indicators, and forced a repricing based on a new, more hawkish Fed risk. The volatility is a tax on uncertainty, and today, that tax was levied in full.

Going forward, investors must prepare for a new regime of elevated volatility. The market must now grapple with the implications of a potentially transformative shift at the helm of the world’s most influential central bank. Support levels around $100 and below will be tested rigorously. Whether this episode morphs into a deeper correction or proves to be a healthy consolidation within a longer-term uptrend will depend on the evolution of the Fed narrative, the persistence of geopolitical strife, and the appetite of physical buyers to step in at these lower levels.

From a technical perspective, silver has shifted from a steady bullish advance into a vulnerable corrective phase on the 4-hour chart. Price had been trending higher along a well-respected ascending trendline, consistently forming higher highs and higher lows. However, the latest sharp rejection from the upper resistance zone near $118.00–$120.00 has disrupted that structure, with price now breaking back below a key horizontal support band around $104.00–$106.00.

This former support zone, which previously acted as a platform for multiple rebounds, is now at risk of turning into resistance. The strong bearish impulse candle slicing through this region signals a change in short-term momentum and suggests that buyers are losing control after an extended run. Price is currently hovering near the psychological $100.00 level, which is providing temporary support, but the broader structure now looks increasingly fragile.

The ascending trendline that guided the rally from early January has also been breached on an intraday basis. Unless silver can quickly reclaim levels above $105.00 and re-establish itself back above the broken support zone, the path of least resistance appears tilted to the downside. A sustained move below $99.00–$100.00 would confirm a deeper corrective phase, exposing the $95.00 region initially, followed by the $90.00–$92.00 zone where prior consolidation and demand were seen.

On the upside, any recovery attempts are likely to face first resistance near $104.00–$106.00. A decisive break back above this area would be needed to stabilize the structure and shift focus toward $110.00. Only a sustained move beyond $116.00–$118.00 would fully revive the broader bullish trend and open the door for a retest of recent highs.

Momentum dynamics now favor consolidation-to-bearish continuation rather than immediate trend resumption. The recent rejection from the highs and the impulsive nature of the selloff suggest fading bullish momentum and rising distribution at elevated levels. This points to increased risk of further downside probing before a more durable base can form.

SELL SILVER

ENTRY PRICE: 97.50

STOP LOSS: 106.00

TAKE PROFIT: 87.00

In the often-predictable world of currency trading, it is the clash of narratives that breeds volatility, and the GBP/JPY cross is currently ground zero for a compelling policy dissonance. The Pound Sterling, acting as both protagonist and barometer of global risk sentiment, is holding a commanding position just shy of its weekly highs against the beleaguered Japanese Yen. As of this writing, the pair trades at 211.65, a level that encapsulates a Wednesday rebound from the 210.00 support—a recovery fueled not by UK developments, but by clarifying rhetoric from Washington that has effectively short-circuited the Yen’s fledgling recovery narrative.

The week’s drama began with a rumor that sent shockwaves through the Tokyo markets: whispers of a potential coordinated intervention to prop up the historically weak Yen. This specter, which triggered a sharp but fleeting JPY recovery last week, was authoritatively laid to rest by none other than US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. In a Wednesday interview with Bloomberg, Bessent delivered a one-two punch of dollar policy. First, he explicitly denied any plans for market intervention to support JPY stability. More significantly, less than 24 hours after former President Donald Trump publicly praised a weakening dollar, Bessent forcefully affirmed the current administration’s commitment to a "strong Dollar policy." The message was unequivocal and immediately digestible for traders: do not expect a US backstop for the Yen’s woes. This single interview provided the jet fuel for the GBP/JPY’s rebound, demonstrating the outsized influence of US political and fiscal commentary on global FX flows.

This American intervention—verbal, not market-based—effectively offset what should have been a supportive domestic development for the Yen. The released minutes from the Bank of Japan’s latest monetary policy meeting revealed a governing board increasingly tilting toward hawkishness. There was noted “general agreement” that the potent combination of persistent inflationary pressures, the Yen’s profound weakness exacerbating import costs, and sustained wage growth indeed “justify further monetary tightening.” This language marks a subtle but critical shift from the BoJ’s decades-long ultra-dovish dogma, theoretically constructing a fundamental floor for the Yen. Yet, in the face of a resolute US Treasury, these minutes read like a theoretical exercise, their impact muted by the stark reality of a widening interest rate chasm and a lack of immediate action.

The immediate test for the BoJ’s thesis arrives later today with the release of the advanced Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI), a leading indicator for national trends. The data presents a critical dilemma. While the BoJ minutes speak of rising pressures, the hard data tells a moderating story: consumer inflation in Japan’s capital cooled to 2.0% year-on-year in December from 2.7% in November. The market consensus for January’s core reading suggests a further moderation. A print confirming this cooling trend could severely undermine the hawkish narrative embedded in the minutes, stripping the Yen of one of its few remaining domestic supports and inviting renewed selling pressure. The currency is caught between the BoJ’s forward-looking guidance and the market’s rear-view mirror data analysis.

On the other side of the pair, the Pound draws strength from a more immediate and visceral source: sticky inflation. Data earlier this week revealed UK shop price inflation surged in January to its highest level in nearly two years, driven by stubbornly rising food prices and elevated fuel costs. For traders and the Bank of England alike, this is a potent signal. It directly boosts expectations for a hotter-than-anticipated Consumer Price Index reading for January when it is published later this month. In the current environment, "hot" UK data translates directly into support for Sterling, as it fiercely entrenches the argument against any near-term monetary easing from the BoE. While the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank openly debate their first rate cuts, the UK’s inflation dynamics suggest its central bank will be among the last to pivot. This relative interest rate advantage provides a structural tailwind for the Pound against funding currencies like the Yen.

In a classic display of the crude market’s current dichotomy, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures retreated from multi-session highs on Friday, yet held firmly on track for a striking monthly advance. The benchmark was last seen trading near $64.00 per barrel during the Asian session, a mild pullback after a three-day rally that underscores the complex tug-of-war between tangible supply risks and lingering macroeconomic anxieties.

Make no mistake: the dominant narrative for January has been one of resilience. Despite concerns over global demand growth and persistent warnings of an oversupplied market later this year, WTI is poised to close the month with a gain of roughly 12%. This impressive performance isn’t born from a surge of bullish economic data. Instead, it is almost entirely constructed atop an elevated—and still rising—geopolitical risk premium. The market is, in essence, pricing in a world where the flow of crude is perpetually one headline away from disruption.

This week, that premium received fresh and highly volatile injections from the world’s most precarious energy flashpoint. Tensions between the United States and Iran escalated dramatically, moving beyond diplomatic posturing into the realm of tangible military threat. The catalyst was a renewed volley of threats from former U.S. President Donald Trump directed at Tehran, urging a return to nuclear talks. Iran’s response was not calibrated for de-escalation. A senior commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warned the nation would “defend itself and respond like never before” if provoked.

The situation was immediately compounded by a significant political move from Europe. The European Union’s decision to formally designate Iran’s IRGC as a terrorist organization has further isolated the regime and narrowed the avenues for diplomatic maneuvering. The geopolitical chessboard saw pieces move rapidly: reports emerged of the U.S. bolstering its military footprint in the region, while Tehran, in a direct and provocative counter, announced plans for live-fire military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz.

For traders and analysts, the Strait of Hormuz is the only square on this chessboard that truly matters. This narrow passage between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman is the artery of global energy transit, with about a fifth of the world’s daily oil consumption passing through its waters. Any credible threat of its disruption sends a reflexive shiver through trading desks from Singapore to London. As strategists at Westpac noted via Dow Jones Newswires, the market is grappling with the potential for "chaotic" outcomes, a scenario far removed from the relatively controlled "surgical strikes" of the past.

Yet, even as one geopolitical front heated up, another saw a surprising, if tactical, thaw. In a notable shift, the Trump administration selectively eased certain sanctions on Venezuela’s beleaguered oil industry on Thursday. The move, clearly designed to lure U.S. investment following the U.S.-backed removal of President Nicolás Maduro earlier this month, grants specific licenses for American companies to engage in production, transport, and refining activities involving Venezuelan-origin crude. While this is a long-term play for reshaping Venezuela’s oil sector—and a strategic counter to Russian and Chinese influence there—its immediate market impact is psychological, reminding participants that barrels can re-enter the market from unexpected quarters.

This month’s price support has been a mosaic of such disruptions. The rally was initially bolstered by a confluence of unplanned outages: production hiccups in Kazakhstan’s Tengiz field, operational freeze-offs that curtailed output in the Permian Basin, and tighter U.S. enforcement of sanctions on Russian oil purchases. These factors collectively tightened the near-term physical balance sheet, providing a fundamental floor for prices that the geopolitical drama then built upon.

The market is walking a precarious tightrope. The 12% monthly gain is a testament to oil’s enduring sensitivity to supply shocks, real or imagined. However, the failure to hold above $64.50 suggests a market that is bullish, but not reckless. There is a palpable caution, a recognition that the current risk premium is substantial and vulnerable to rapid deflation should any of the geopolitical sparks fail to ignite a wider fire, or should tangible evidence of a supply overhang emerge.

From a technical perspective, WTI Crude Oil is showing early signs of a trend transition following a prolonged bearish phase on the 4-hour chart. Price had been entrenched in a well-defined descending channel for several months, consistently producing lower highs and lower lows. However, recent price action shows a decisive bullish break above the upper boundary of that channel, signaling a meaningful shift in market structure and increasing the probability that a medium-term base has been established.

WTI is currently trading around the $64.00–$64.50 zone, which aligns with a major horizontal resistance-turned-support area. This level previously acted as a distribution zone during mid-2025 and has now been reclaimed with strong bullish momentum, suggesting acceptance above former supply. Holding above this region is critical; sustained price action above $63.50–$64.00 would confirm the breakout and reinforce the bullish reversal narrative. A failure to hold this level would imply a false breakout and could trigger a pullback toward $62.00, followed by the $60.00–$59.50 demand zone, where buyers previously stepped in aggressively.

To the downside, the $56.00–$57.00 region represents the most important structural support. This area marks the cycle low and the lower bound of the broader accumulation range. A decisive break below this zone would negate the bullish thesis entirely and reopen downside risk toward the $53.00–$50.00 region, signaling a continuation of the longer-term bearish trend.

On the upside, the next key resistance is located near $66.00–$68.00, a zone defined by prior swing highs and heavy historical trading activity. A clean break and hold above this region would likely accelerate upside momentum and expose higher targets toward $72.00, followed by the $75.00 psychological level, where sellers previously regained control. The sharp bullish expansion seen during the breakout suggests improving participation and a potential shift from corrective price action into trend continuation.

Momentum characteristics favor continuation rather than exhaustion. The impulsive nature of the breakout contrasts sharply with the overlapping, corrective structure that preceded it—often a hallmark of trend reversals rather than short-lived retracements. Volatility expansion following prolonged compression further supports the case for sustained directional movement.

BUY WTI CRUDE OIL

ENTRY PRICE: 64.50

STOP LOSS: 60.90

TAKE PROFIT: 72.00

Markets expect coordinated intervention measures between the U.S. and Japan. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi warned last week that officials are prepared to take necessary steps to address speculative and highly abnormal market volatility. On the other hand, yen upside may be limited because the weaker-than-expected Tokyo CPI has reduced expectations for an imminent BoJ rate hike. According to data released Friday by Japan's Statistics Bureau, Tokyo CPI rose 1.5% YoY in January, the lowest growth rate since March 2022, down from 2.0% in the previous month. Meanwhile, Tokyo's core CPI YoY growth slowed to 2.0% in January, the lowest since October 2024, down from 2.3% in December and below the market forecast of 2.2%. This report reinforced market expectations that the BoJ will remain cautious about further rate hikes. In domestic politics, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is widely expected to perform well in the House of Representatives snap election scheduled for February 8. Preliminary results based on interviews conducted by Nikkei and a joint poll with Yomiuri Shimbun suggest the LDP is expected to gain seats and cross the majority threshold of 233 out of 465 House seats, significantly higher than its pre-election tally of 198. Currently, the ruling coalition of the LDP and Nippon Ishin no Kai holds only a narrow majority in the House and remains in the minority in the Upper House. Takaichi called the snap election to seek clearer public endorsement for her expansionary fiscal policies, but this policy direction has raised market concerns over a potential increase in Japanese government bond issuance, pushing bond yields higher. Although the campaign is still in its early stages, the LDP's overall momentum remains strong.

In financial markets, Japanese authorities are tackling yen depreciation pressure in a different way from before. With rare U.S. backing, Japan’s top currency official has adopted a strategy of “tactical silence” and restrained communication rather than frequent FX intervention. Atsushi Mimura, Vice Minister for International Affairs at the Ministry of Finance, who took office in 2024, has deliberately reduced public statements, making limited remarks themselves a policy signal and increasing market difficulty in judging whether and when Japan might intervene. Analysts note that without deploying large-scale intervention funds, Japan has pushed USD/JPY down by roughly 7 yen, regarded as a highly efficient operation. Recently, the yen has experienced several notable appreciations, including one following reports of unusual interest rate checks by the New York Fed, sparking speculation of a long-unseen joint U.S.–Japan intervention. Although the U.S. denied direct intervention, America's involvement in related rate checks is viewed as a significant breakthrough.

According to Bloomberg, Trump said Thursday evening that he would announce his nominee to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair on Friday morning. Earlier reports indicated former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh met with Trump at the White House, after which Warsh emerged as a leading candidate. Traders will closely watch developments and their potential impact on Fed independence and interest rate prospects. The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday that Trump reached an agreement with Senate Democrats that could avert a government shutdown and buy more time to negotiate limits on government immigration policies. Market anxiety eased after the news broke. However, it remains unclear how quickly—or even if—the House will take up the funding bills once passed by the Senate. The shutdown deadline is midnight Friday. If market worries resurface, especially regarding Fed independence and the risk of a U.S. government shutdown, the dollar's rebound may prove short-lived, and these concerns could continue to weigh on the US dollar.

From a daily chart perspective, USD/JPY's Bollinger Bands are opening downward, moving averages are diverging lower, and price is falling strongly along the Bollinger Lower Band. After MACD formed a death cross, upward momentum clearly weakened. Besides, the MACD and signal lines have moved below the zero axis, indicating the market has entered a bearish trend. In the short term, price has stabilized and rebounded near the EMA200, potentially returning to around the EMA12 and the Bollinger Middle Band at 155.2 and 156.5, respectively. RSI is at 38, signaling an oversold zone where investors are mainly in sell mode.

Trading Recommendations:

Trading direction: Buy

Entry Price: 153.4

Target Price: 160

Stop Loss: 149.5

Support: 152/150/149.5

Resistance: 160/161/162