The further escalation of tensions in the Middle East and the deterioration of U.S.-Iran relations have fully ignited market demand for safe-haven assets. As a traditional "safe haven" asset, gold has demonstrated strong defensive properties amid turmoil. Moreover, the global trend of "de-dollarization" shows no signs of cooling: central banks and large institutions maintained robust gold-buying demand in the first quarter of 2026, providing solid bottom support for prices through structural demand. In an interview, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that since the EU plans to ban imports of Russian gas, Russia should take the initiative to cut off supplies early. He emphasized that energy prices are bound to rise due to sanctions and the U.S.-Israel aggression against Iran, hinting that Russia will shift its supply focus entirely to emerging markets. This statement sent European natural gas futures soaring by 60% instantly. Compounding the issue, Qatar's complete halt of liquefied natural gas (LNG) production has exacerbated the crisis. Prices have now breached €56 per megawatt-hour, directly increasing production costs for European industries. Analysts warn that if the Middle East chaos persists, Europe may face its most severe energy crisis since 2022 this winter.

Strong U.S. economic fundamentals have injected mixed signals into the market. The ADP employment report, released Wednesday, showed private sector job growth of 63,000 in February. This result not only exceeded the market forecast of 50,000 but also rebounded sharply from January's revised figure of 11,000. This data should theoretically strengthen confidence in U.S. economic resilience, pressuring non-yielding gold. However, the contradiction lies in the fact that this seemingly robust data emerged against a backdrop of worsening energy conditions: Qatar suspended LNG production entirely on Wednesday, while Saudi Aramco rerouted crude oil exports through the Red Sea's Yanbu port for security reasons, widening the global oil and gas supply gap. Soaring energy prices quickly translated into fresh concerns about inflation, weakening expectations for a June rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Instead, gold gained new buying momentum under the "stagflation logic." This combination of “strong data but stronger inflation expectations” epitomizes the delicate tug-of-war between bulls and bears in the current gold market. Meanwhile, the Fed's latest Beige Book added more shades of gray to this economic picture. While most regions reported moderate growth, heightened uncertainty and persistent price increases have significantly raised consumer price sensitivity. In Minnesota, for instance, strict immigration policies have severely disrupted local businesses and labor markets, with sales performance being materially constrained by declining household purchasing power. This coexistence of "macro stability" and "micro pressure" reveals structural cracks within the U.S. economy. On the macro policy front, the Trump administration is reshaping the global trade and financial order with unprecedented resolve. A new round of temporary global tariffs, expected to reach 15%, is set to be announced this week, aiming to rebalance global trade through maximum pressure. This move has already triggered sharp volatility in global markets, with multiple governments preparing retaliatory measures, raising the risk of a full-blown trade war. More significantly, the White House has formally submitted documents to the Senate nominating Kevin Warsh—a policy hawk—to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, with his term expected to begin in May. Markets are closely watching how he will balance the conflict between geopolitically driven imported inflation and domestic economic growth, as this personnel change introduces the greatest uncertainty into future interest rate paths.

Based on the 4-hour chart, gold's Bollinger Bands are narrowing, and moving averages are flattening, signaling an imminent breakout. After facing resistance near 5,400, prices briefly fell below 5,000, entering a short-term consolidation range. If gold fails to hold above 5,000, it could test support near 4,900; conversely, holding 5,000 could propel prices toward 5,500 and 5,600. The MACD has formed a death cross, with upward momentum weakening and both lines returning below the zero line. The RSI stands at 47, indicating dominant selling pressure; declining RSI highs suggest a short-term bearish signal. Moving to the daily chart, prices touched the Bollinger Upper Band and faced resistance, forming a candlestick with a long upper shadow. This was followed by a large bearish candle breaking below the 12-day EMA, suggesting the pullback is not yet over. The MACD has also formed a death cross, with upward momentum gradually fading—another bearish signal. The RSI is at 55, reflecting strong market indecision. Therefore, traders should use a short-then-long strategy.

Trading direction: Sell

Entry Price: 5200

Target Price: 4300

Stop Loss: 5700

Support: 4500/4300/4100

Resistance: 4500/4300/4100