AUD/JPY Loses Bullish Momentum Below 113.00: Is a Deeper Correction Toward 111.00 Beginning?

Forex

Summary:

AUD/JPY is trading around 112.70 after failing multiple times to establish acceptance above the 113.00 psychological barrier. The Australian dollar is facing pressure from slowing domestic growth, while the Japanese yen is benefiting from growing expectations of further Bank of Japan tightening and increased demand for defensive assets amid geopolitical uncertainty. ..

SELL AUDJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

112.650

Entry Price

111.200

113.350

109.898 +0.575 +0.53%

45.6

Pips

Profit

111.200

112.194

Exit Price

112.650

Entry Price

113.350

Market Overview

As of 10/06/2026 (GMT+7), AUD/JPY is fluctuating near 112.70 after retreating from recent highs around 114.20. The pair has been one of the strongest carry-trade vehicles throughout the first half of 2026 due to the significant interest-rate differential between Australia and Japan. However, that advantage is beginning to narrow as the Bank of Japan gradually exits its ultra-loose monetary policy framework.

Recent Australian economic data have also contributed to the correction. Australia's latest GDP report showed growth of only 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, significantly below market expectations. The weak reading reinforced expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia may maintain a cautious approach toward further policy tightening. As a result, yield support for the Australian dollar has weakened relative to earlier in the year.

On the Japanese side, expectations continue to build that the Bank of Japan will raise rates again during the June meeting. Market participants are increasingly pricing the possibility of policy normalization continuing into the second half of 2026. Even though Japanese interest rates remain substantially lower than Australian rates, the direction of policy is becoming more favorable for the yen.

Geopolitical developments have added another layer of complexity. Rising tensions in the Middle East have increased demand for safe-haven currencies. Historically, the Japanese yen benefits disproportionately during periods of geopolitical uncertainty, while AUD tends to underperform due to its strong correlation with global growth expectations and investor risk appetite.

The most important macro insight is that AUD/JPY is no longer being driven solely by carry-trade flows. Investors are increasingly focusing on the changing policy outlook in Japan, creating a more balanced risk profile than seen during previous months.

Market Sentiment

Market sentiment has shifted noticeably from bullish to cautious. During April and May, traders aggressively accumulated AUD/JPY positions as risk appetite remained strong and BOJ tightening expectations were limited. That environment has changed considerably over the past two weeks.

Institutional participants are increasingly reducing exposure to crowded carry-trade positions. The combination of stronger yen fundamentals and softer Australian growth has encouraged profit-taking from long positions accumulated earlier in the year. This helps explain why rallies toward 113.00 have repeatedly failed despite generally stable equity markets.

Another important sentiment indicator is the behavior of Japanese government officials. Recent comments have emphasized concerns regarding excessive currency volatility and support for a stronger yen through policy normalization. Such statements have increased confidence among yen buyers.

A notable shift in market psychology is that traders are beginning to view rallies as selling opportunities rather than breakout opportunities. This is a meaningful change because trend reversals often begin with subtle shifts in participant behavior before they become obvious on price charts.

Current sentiment therefore favors cautious bearish positioning while AUD/JPY remains below the major resistance zone near 113.00.

Technical Analysis

On the M15 timeframe, Bollinger Bands (20,0,2) show price trading below the middle band after repeatedly failing to sustain momentum near the upper band. The bands are gradually widening downward, indicating that bearish momentum is starting to strengthen following a period of consolidation.

The Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9,26,52) structure has deteriorated significantly. Price is trading below the Kijun-sen while the Tenkan-sen has crossed lower, generating a short-term bearish signal. The future cloud is beginning to flatten, indicating that the previous bullish trend is losing strength.

The Stochastic (5,3,3) recently exited overbought territory and continues rotating lower. Momentum remains bearish without reaching oversold conditions, suggesting there is still room for additional downside before a significant technical rebound becomes likely.

The most important technical observation is the repeated rejection from the 113.00–113.20 resistance area. Multiple attempts to break this region have failed, creating a clear supply zone. Immediate support is located near 112.20, followed by stronger support around 111.60. If sellers break below 112.20, downside acceleration toward 111.00 becomes increasingly likely. Conversely, a sustained break above 113.20 would invalidate the bearish setup and reopen the path toward 114.00.

The combination of weakening momentum, deteriorating Ichimoku structure, and repeated resistance rejections currently favors the downside scenario.

Trading Recommendation

Entry: 112.70

Take Profit: 111.20

Stop Loss: 113.35

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