AUD/JPY at 111.10: Bullish Momentum Builds, but BOJ Policy Risks Remain

Forex

Summary:

On 21 October 2026, AUD/JPY is trading around 111.09–111.12, recovering as the Australian dollar gains against the yen. The latest technical dashboard shows a strong-buy signal,...

BUY AUDJPY

EXP

PENDING

111.100

Entry Price

111.400

110.850

111.057 -0.058 -0.05%

Pips

PENDING

110.850

Exit Price

111.100

Entry Price

111.400

Market Overview

AUD/JPY has strengthened over recent sessions, with the latest available daily data showing a close near 111.09 on 21 October, following a rebound from 109.78 on 16 October. The recovery reflects improved buying momentum, although the pair remains sensitive to the policy outlook in both Australia and Japan.

Australia's monetary-policy outlook is increasingly complicated. RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said on 20 October that the inflation outlook had deteriorated, partly because Brent crude had climbed above $110 per barrel. However, Australia's September employment report showed a loss of 39,300 jobs and unemployment at 4.7%, weakening the case for another immediate rate increase. This creates a two-sided risk: persistent inflation could support the Australian dollar through higher rate expectations, but deteriorating employment could limit that support.

Japan presents the opposite policy risk. A Reuters poll published on 20 October found that most economists expected the Bank of Japan to raise rates to 1.50% in December. Expectations of tighter Japanese policy could strengthen the yen and cap AUD/JPY gains, particularly if officials reinforce their hawkish message.

For the BUY at 111.10, the strongest rationale is therefore the pair's current bullish price momentum, not an assumption that the interest-rate differential will keep widening. A sustained break above nearby resistance would support continuation, while a rejection could trigger profit-taking.

Market Sentiment

The latest AUD/JPY technical dashboard records a strong-buy reading, with 12 moving-average buy signals and eight bullish versus two bearish technical indicators. RSI(14) is 57.57, MACD is positive at 0.100, and ADX(14) is 40.38. RSI remains below the conventional overbought threshold, suggesting that bullish momentum has not yet reached an extreme. ADX indicates a strong directional trend but does not independently establish its direction.

Nevertheless, the pair is approaching resistance rather than breaking into clear territory. The classic pivot sits at 111.07, with resistance at 111.19, 111.25 and 111.37. This makes 111.10 a reasonable level to monitor, but not an automatically attractive entry if price has already become extended.

The preferred BUY scenario is an M15 close above 111.19, followed by a successful retest that holds above 111.10. If price repeatedly fails around 111.19–111.25, the rebound may stall. A sustained move below 111.00 would weaken the immediate bullish structure and suggest that sellers are regaining control.

Technical Analysis

AUD/JPY at 111.10: Bullish Momentum Builds, but BOJ Policy Risks Remain_1

Bollinger Bands (20,0,2): Exact live M15 band values could not be independently verified. Look for price to hold above the middle band, with the band flattening or turning upward. A close above the upper band accompanied by expanding bullish momentum could support continuation. However, if price repeatedly rejects the upper band near 111.19–111.25, a pullback toward the middle band becomes more likely.

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9,26,52): Current M15 Tenkan-sen, Kijun-sen and Kumo values are unavailable. A stronger BUY configuration requires price above the cloud, Tenkan-sen above Kijun-sen, and the cloud acting as support during a retest. If price falls back beneath the Kijun-sen or enters a bearish cloud, the bullish continuation thesis weakens.

Stochastic (5,3,3): Wait for a bullish crossover following a controlled pullback, ideally while price holds above 111.00–111.07. A crossover aligned with a higher low would strengthen the setup. If Stochastic is already overbought as price tests 111.25, avoid chasing the move without a fresh breakout signal.

The immediate resistance levels are 111.19 and 111.25, followed by 111.37. Support lies around 111.07, 111.01 and 110.89. These are current published pivot references, not verified live M15 indicator values.

Trade Recommendation

Entry: 111.10

Take Profit: 111.40

Stop Loss: 110.85

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