ATFX Market Outlook - 5th June 2026

US Jobs: Resilience or Slowdown?

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

Key Takeaways

Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire Risks: Despite a ceasefire agreement, Israel’s continued airstrikes in southern Lebanon have raised concerns about the peace deal’s progress.

Jobless Claims vs Resilience: US initial jobless claims rose unexpectedly to a four-month high, but economists attribute this to holiday distortions, suggesting the labor market remains resilient.

Focus of the Day: The US will release its May non-farm payrolls (NFP) report tonight, with expectations of 85,000 new jobs, a drop from April’s 115,000. The unemployment rate is projected to stay at 4.3%, and average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 0.3%. This NFP release may influence market direction amid a challenging economic backdrop.

Global Market Review

US stock indices closed mixed on Thursday. The Dow rose 1.73%, boosted by healthcare and financial sectors, while the S&P 500 gained 0.41%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.09%.

US Treasury yields declined, and the dollar retreated from a two-month high. Spot gold climbed 0.95% to $4,473.89 per ounce. In energy markets, crude oil prices dropped over 3% after the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire announcement.

Key Events Today:

17:00 EU GDP 3rd Est Q1 **

20:30 US Non Farm Payrolls MAY ***

20:30 US Unemployment Rate MAY ***

20:30 CA Unemployment Rate MAY **

Key Data and Events Coming Week

Monday: JP GDP, GERMANY Factory Orders

Tuesday: GERMANY Industrial Production, US Balance of Trade & Existing Home Sales

Wednesday: API/EIA Crude Oil Stock Change, JP PPI, CN CPI & PPI, US CPI, BoC Interest Rate Decision

Thursday: ECB Interest Rate Decision, US PPI, OPEC Monthly Report

Friday: GERMANY CPI, GB GDP, GB Industrial & Manufacturing Production, US Michigan Consumer Sentiment

EURUSD

Resistance: 1.1644 / 1.1660

Support: 1.1593 / 1.1576

The Euro strengthened to 1.1600 yesterday amid a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, but gave up most of those gains later. Attention now turns to today’s US non-farm payrolls (NFP) and revised Eurozone GDP data.

Analysts View: The currency pair couldn't hold its intraday highs and closed near weekly lows, leaving bulls constrained below major moving averages and making the 1.1600 level vulnerable. The upcoming NFP report will be key for short-term direction.

Bias: Cautiously bearish

GBPUSD

Resistance: 1.3460 / 1.3485

Support: 1.3381 / 1.3357

The Lebanon ceasefire led to a temporary rebound in the Pound against the US Dollar, supported by hawkish comments from Bank of England officials regarding interest rate hikes.

Analysts View: The pair lost most of its gains by the close, testing resistance at the 10-day and 20-day moving averages before reversing to near three-day lows. The market is now adopting a wait-and-see approach ahead of tonight’s US NFP data.

Bias: Cautiously bearish

USDJPY

Resistance: 160.08 / 160.41

Support: 159.73 / 159.39

Yesterday, USD/JPY hovered near levels that prompted potential market intervention, remaining cautious and range-bound. The Bank of Japan appears to be preparing for gradual monetary policy tightening, while the market awaits key US employment data to assess the interest rate outlook.

Analyst View: USD/JPY briefly fell below 160 before rebounding, aided by a late US Dollar recovery. However, there’s insufficient momentum to push significantly above 160. Tonight's US NFP may serve as a bullish catalyst, but concerns about currency intervention continue to limit upside potential.

Bias: Hovering near highs

US Crude Oil Futures (JUL)

Resistance: 96.42 / 98.35

Support: 90.18 / 88.23

Oil prices fell on Thursday, snapping a three-day winning streak, as geopolitical tensions eased with a temporary ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, leading WTI prices to about $93 per barrel.

Analysts View: While the price pullback occurred, prices stayed above the 10-day moving average, indicating an intraday rebound. However, potential resistance at the 20-day moving average above $96, together with ongoing regional tensions, may influence future price movements.

Bias: Range-bound

Spot Gold (XAU/USD)

Resistance: 4542/4569

Support: 4400/4366

Spot Silver

Resistance: 75.94/76.61

Support: 71.74/70.89

Israel and Lebanon have renewed their fragile ceasefire, raising hopes for a US-Iran peace deal. Spot gold rebounded on Thursday but stalled early Friday as attention turned to the US non-farm payrolls report. In early Asian trading, gold prices dipped to around $4,460, struggling to break the 10-day moving average.

Analysts View: Today's NFP data may determine if gold can surpass $4,500 or fall back to last week's lows.

Bias: Cautiously bearish

Dow Jones Futures

Resistance: 51703 / 51780

Support: 51375 / 51278

The market is optimistic about a US-Iran peace agreement. Capital rotated out of tech stocks, leading to strong performance in the healthcare and financial sectors, with the Dow surging over 870 points to set a new record high. Analysts View: Dow’s upward movement may continue if today’s US NFP data is positive. However, traders should also be alert for pre-weekend position adjustments.

Bias: Trading at highs

NASDAQ 100

Resistance: 30625 / 30790

Support: 30234 / 30108

The semiconductor sector experienced mixed performance yesterday, with Broadcom's disappointing guidance leading to profit-taking and a slight dip in the Nasdaq for the second day. Although it briefly hit a five-day low, the index found support at the 10-day moving average, critical for maintaining recent highs.

Analysts View: Attention is now on whether the US NFP can boost sentiment further.

Bias: Mildly Bullish

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

Resistance: 67606/69683

Support: 60728/58042

Bitcoin hit a four-month low on Thursday, driven by heavy ETF outflows and selling by major corporate holder Strategy. Investors are shifting towards sectors like artificial intelligence.

Analyst View: BTC/USD's downward momentum eased, finding support at its lowest level since February 6. Watch for consolidation signals; if it falls again, support levels at $60,728 and $58,042 may be significant.

Bias: Consolidating at lows

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please ensure that you understand the risk.

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