ATFX Market Outlook – 21st April 2026  

Markets Watch Warsh, US Retail Sales, Iran Risks

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

Summary

·       On Monday, the U.S. seized a cargo ship flying the Iranian flag. Some Iranian officials said Tehran is considering talks with the U.S. in Pakistan, though this remains uncertain. Investors are still waiting to see whether this week’s negotiations could lead to an extension of the current ceasefire.  

·       Today’s focus: Investors will closely watch the U.S. Senate confirmation hearing for Kevin Warsh, the nominee for Federal Reserve Chair, as it could shape expectations for the Fed’s next policy direction. In prepared remarks, Warsh is expected to say he is “committed to ensuring that monetary policymaking remains strictly independent.” On the data front, U.S. March retail sales will provide the first full read on consumer activity since the outbreak of the conflict. While markets broadly expect March retail sales growth to accelerate, with month-on-month growth forecast at 1.4% versus 0.6% previously, any significant downside surprise could intensify concerns that U.S. consumer momentum is peaking.

Global Market Review

U.S. stocks edged lower on Monday as renewed U.S.-Iran tensions weighed on sentiment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.01%, the S&P 500 slipped 0.24%, and the Nasdaq dropped 0.26%, with the latter two pulling back from record highs and ending their recent winning streak. U.S. Treasury prices were little changed, while the U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.39% to 98.07.

Gold recovered from a one-week low after Iran threatened retaliation over the U.S. seizure of an Iranian cargo ship. Spot gold settled at $4,819.64 per ounce, down 0.2%. Oil prices also spiked intraday as violence resurfaced around the Strait of Hormuz, while the outlook for U.S.-Iran peace talks remained uncertain.

Key Events Today:

14:00 GB Unemployment Rate FEB **
17:00 EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Index APR ** 
20:30 US Retail Sales MAR *** 

22:00 US Pending Home Sales MAR **  
22:00 U.S. Senate Banking Committee hearing on Kevin Warsh’s nomination for Federal Reserve Chair ***

Tomorrow:
04:30 US API Weekly Crude Oil Stock *** 
14:00 GB CPI & PPI YoY MAR*** 
22:00 EU Consumer Confidence Flash APR ** 
22:30 EIA Weekly Crude Oil Stock **

Temporary U.S.–Iran ceasefire expires ***

NYMEX May crude oil futures contract expires ***

 EURUSD

Resistance: 1.1835/1.1884
Support: 1.1724/1.1674

EURUSD held near 1.1781 as the dollar softened again after an early risk-driven rebound. Despite fresh U.S.-Iran friction, traders still leaned towards eventual diplomacy, helping the euro remain relatively supported.

Analyst View: EURUSD still appears supported, but upside momentum is slowing below 1.1835–1.1884. As long as price holds above 1.1674, the broader recovery remains intact; a clean break higher would be needed to restore stronger bullish momentum.

Bias: Consolidating around the 1.1800 level

GBPUSD

Resistance: 1.3603/1.3639
Support: 1.3479/1.3432

GBPUSD edged up to 1.3535, supported by renewed dollar softness and lingering optimism about diplomacy. Still, gains were modest as markets remained cautious ahead of the ceasefire deadline and broader geopolitical headlines.

Analyst View: GBPUSD is holding its recovery structure, but the pair is starting to stall below 1.3603–1.3639. That keeps the tone mildly constructive, though near-term gains may remain choppy unless buyers can clear the upper resistance band cleanly.

Bias: Temporary consolidation within the 1.3500–1.3600 range

USDJPY

Resistance: 159.39/159.67
Support: 158.53/158.17

USDJPY rose slightly towards 158.81 as yen demand remained restrained despite renewed regional tension. The pair stayed relatively elevated, with markets balancing softer dollar sentiment against still-fragile geopolitical conditions.

Analyst View: USDJPY is drifting rather than trending. The pair is holding the middle of the range, but unless it retakes 159.39–159.67, the upside remains unconvincing and the market stays prone to slipping back towards 158.17–158.53.

Bias: Mildly bearish

US Crude Oil Futures (JUN)

Resistance: 89.36/91.50
Support: 82.05/80.33

WTI slipped back towards $86.45 after the prior surge, though markets remained highly sensitive to risks related to the Strait of Hormuz. The $85.50 level emerged as a key near-term level as traders weighed disruption fears against expectations of softer demand.

Analyst View: WTI is trying to stabilise, but the rebound remains fragile, with support around $89.36–$91.50. Unless price can reclaim that resistance band, the market may continue to slip between bounce attempts and renewed pressure towards $80.33–$82.05.

Bias: Watching from a low-range consolidation

Spot Gold (XAU/USD)

Resistance: 4887/4983
Support: 4736/4642

Spot Silver

Resistance: 82.51/85.01
Support: 76.82/74.27

Gold traded near $4,826, supported by a softer dollar, even as the ceasefire deadline approached without clear progress. Still, upside momentum remained cautious as higher yields and geopolitical uncertainty continued to complicate the rate outlook.

Analyst View: Gold remains in a constructive structure above $4,736, but the market appears less eager to move higher each time it approaches $4,887. That keeps the tone supported, though the next move may remain range-bound unless buyers can break through resistance cleanly.

Bias: Range-trading mode

Dow Jones Futures  

Resistance: 50513/51146
Support: 49072/48428

The Dow slipped marginally as investors grew more cautious after the Strait of Hormuz disruption returned to the fore. Energy shares outperformed, but broader sentiment softened ahead of key earnings and amid renewed geopolitical uncertainty.

Analyst View: The Dow is trying to stabilise above 48,428, but momentum has clearly cooled before reaching 50,513–51,146. That keeps the structure constructive, though the index may need consolidation before another serious attempt at the heights.

Bias: High-level range consolidation

NASDAQ 100

Resistance: 26887/27182
Support: 26308/25933

The NAS100 eased as geopolitical nerves and rising uncertainty interrupted the recent momentum. The broader AI-driven theme still offers support, but traders have become more selective ahead of earnings and shifting macro headlines.

Analyst View: The NAS100 still has upward momentum, but near 26,887–27,182, the market may start to hesitate. Bulls have not lost control, yet this part of the move feels more like testing appetite than an easy breakout.

Bias: High-level range consolidation

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

Resistance: 78617/80272

Support: 74380/73100

Bitcoin climbed back above $75,000 even as U.S.-Iran tensions flared again, suggesting crypto risk appetite remained more resilient than that of equities. Support came from continued institutional demand, including Strategy’s latest large BTC purchase, while the $75,000 level remains a key short-term pivot.

Analyst View: Bitcoin remains above its key support band, but the market is no longer rising in a straight line. As long as $73,100–$74,380 contains pullbacks, the structure remains constructive, though the upside may feel more selective near $78,617.

Bias: Mildly bullish

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