ATFX Market Outlook – 14th April 2026

Markets Downplay U.S.-Iran Tensions, Eye U.S. PPI

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

Summary

·       After weekend talks between the U.S. and Iran collapsed, President Trump said the U.S. military would begin blocking vessels departing from Iranian ports on Monday, while Iran threatened retaliation against the ports of Gulf neighbors. However, the new U.S. blockade around the Strait of Hormuz only triggered a brief flight to safety, as markets soon reverted to hoping that a resolution could still be reached.  

·       Today’s focus will be the U.S. March PPI report, expected to rise 4.6% year-on-year, up from 3.4% previously. PPI matters because it is a leading indicator of CPI and the first stage in the transmission of energy prices into end-consumer inflation. With Middle East tensions driving oil prices sharply higher, the U.S. may begin to feel stronger inflationary pressure. If PPI significantly exceeds expectations, hopes for rate cuts could be pushed back, potentially offering short-term support to the U.S. dollar while weighing on gold and U.S. equities.

Global Market Review

U.S. stocks rose on Monday as investors reassessed the duration of the geopolitical escalation and shifted their focus to the start of earnings season. The Dow Jones gained 0.6%, the S&P 500 rose 1%, and the Nasdaq advanced 1.2%. U.S. Treasury prices edged higher in choppy trading, while the U.S. dollar retreated from its intraday highs and fell for a sixth consecutive session.

Gold prices slipped slightly as a firmer dollar and renewed inflation concerns clouded the outlook for future rate cuts. Spot gold fell 0.18% to $4,739.18 per ounce. Oil prices surged at one point before trimming gains after the U.S. military began blocking ships departing Iranian ports, while Tehran threatened retaliation against Gulf neighbors.

Key Events Today:

12:30 JP Industrial Production MoM FEB **
16:00 IEA Monthly Oil Market Report ** 
20:30 US PPI MAR ***

Tomorrow:

00:00 BoE Gov Bailey Speech *** 
04:30 US API Weekly Crude Oil Stock *** 
17:00 EU Industrial Production MoM FEB **
20:30 US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index APR **
22:30 EIA Weekly Crude Oil Stock **

EURUSD

Resistance: 1.1835/1.1884
Support: 1.1723/1.1673

EURUSD held near 1.1737 as the dollar softened again after early strength faded. Continued U.S.-Iran contact helped improve risk sentiment, supporting the euro, though lingering energy-driven inflation risks may still limit upside.

Analyst View: EURUSD is approaching 1.1723, but the bigger hurdle remains higher at 1.1835–1.1884. For now, the tone remains constructive, though follow-through may slow if the dollar finds support amid lingering energy and inflation risks.

Bias: Bullish above 1.1740

GBPUSD

Resistance: 1.3555/1.3603
Support: 1.3432/1.3394

GBPUSD climbed above 1.3500 and reached seven-week highs as broad USD weakness outweighed the initial risk-off mood triggered by headlines about the Hormuz blockade. However, the pound’s upside may remain limited if rising energy costs deepen UK stagflation risks.

Analyst View: GBPUSD is holding a firm tone, but the market is approaching the 1.3555–1.3603 resistance band, where gains may face heavier selling. As long as pullbacks remain above 1.3394–1.3432, the broader bias still leans higher.

Bias: Consolidating around 1.3500

USDJPY

Resistance: 159.48/159.78
Support: 158.88/158.50

USDJPY rose to 159.74, as higher Japanese yields failed to offset broader dollar support stemming from oil-related inflation concerns. The pair remains elevated, with markets weighing geopolitical risk against firmer U.S. rate expectations.

Analyst View: USDJPY is easing away from the 159.48–159.78 resistance zone, indicating that upside momentum has cooled for now. However, unless price breaks cleanly below 158.50–158.88, this appears more like consolidation following strength than the start of a deeper reversal.

Bias: Bearish below 159

US Crude Oil Futures (MAY)

Resistance: 104.93/109.79
Support: 93.15/89.29

WTI slipped back towards $97 after the prior surge, as hopes for another U.S.-Iran meeting on April 16 eased some immediate panic over supply disruption. Even so, the market remains highly sensitive to any change in blockade risk.

Analyst View: WTI has pulled back toward the $93.15–$89.29 support zone after failing to hold above $100, suggesting the market is easing from extreme geopolitical pricing. Unless price can reclaim $104.93–$109.79, the near-term tone may stay biased toward consolidation or further cooling.

Bias: Corrective below $99

Spot Gold (XAU/USD)

Resistance: 4886/4981
Support: 4643/4569

Spot Silver

Resistance: 78.91/82.34
Support: 72.07/67.84

Gold traded near $4,760 after Monday’s decline, as the market balanced geopolitical uncertainty against a stronger inflation backdrop. Hopes for renewed diplomacy may help stabilise sentiment, but elevated oil still clouds the Fed outlook.

Analyst View: Gold is trying to steady above the $4,569–$4,643 support area, but the market still needs a stronger push to challenge $4,886. For now, the rebound looks alive, though not yet forceful enough to confirm a full upside extension.

Bias: Range trading for now

Dow Jones Futures

Resistance: 49080/49710
Support: 47799/47159

The Dow gained 0.63% as investors became less reactive to Middle East headlines and welcomed lower oil prices from intraday highs. Still, light volumes suggest conviction remains limited ahead of further geopolitical and earnings developments.

Analyst View: The Dow is attempting to rebuild above 47,159, which helps steady the short-term tone. However, unless price can push back into the 49,080–49,710 resistance zone, this still reads more like a recovery phase than a fully re-established uptrend.

Bias: High-level consolidation above 48,000

NASDAQ 100

Resistance: 25634/25933
Support: 24974/24685

NAS100 rose more than 1%, supported by strong software names and easing concerns following news that U.S.-Iran contact may continue. Tech sentiment improved, though the outlook still hinges on whether inflation fears lift yields again.

Analyst View: The NAS100 is testing the upper end of its rebound near 25,343, so the market is starting to encounter resistance rather than trading in open air. A push into 25,634–25,933 would keep the recovery intact, while failure there may slow the advance.

Bias: Bullish above 25,400

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

Resistance: 75562/76397

Support: 72846/72026

Bitcoin climbed above $73,000 as improving hopes for further U.S.-Iran talks helped risk assets recover, despite the Hormuz blockade taking effect. Strong institutional demand also remained supportive, though broader geopolitical and inflation risks may still temper follow-through buying.

Analyst View: Bitcoin has regained momentum after clearing the $72,026 area, but the next real test sits higher at $75,562–$76,397. For now, the tone stays constructive, though chasing strength into that overhead zone may become less straightforward.

Bias: Mildly bullish

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